US Politics XXVII: Orange Super Spreader
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MrsSpringsteen
Blue Crack Addict
Lol, I missed that one
Last night I watched The Way I See It on Peacock. It was on MSNBC this past week but I had missed it.
It's about Pete Souza, the official WH photographer for Obama. Such a good show, but it made me even more depressed. And I don't say that lightly or disrespectfully, because I live with depression.
Irvine511
Blue Crack Supplier
Moonlit_Angel
Blue Crack Addict
Nepotism problemsI really can't stand nepotism Ken and Barbie
Politico.com
By CAITLIN OPRYSKO
10/24/2020 11:59 AM EDT
Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner are threatening to sue the Lincoln Project over billboards the anti-Trump group put up in Times Square assailing them over the White House's coronavirus response.
In a letter to the group posted on Twitter on Friday night, an attorney for the president’s daughter and son-in-law demanded the “false, malicious and defamatory” billboards be taken down.
Marc Kasowitz warned that if the ads stay up, “we will sue you for what will doubtless be enormous compensatory and punitive damages.”
The Lincoln Project was defiant, saying in a scathing public statement that the billboards would stay up.
Oh, no, no, no, no, noooooooo, guys. If your dad/father-in-law gets to go after Hunter Biden and you don't have a peep to say about that, then you don't get to whine about people going after you. Especially since, y'know, you're actually working for this administration and there's no indication Hunter would work for a Biden administration. Fair's fair, so shut up.
Good on the Lincoln Project for not backing down.
This. I know he and his supporters are grumpy that he has an actual record people get to judge him on now, but tough shit. They wanted him to be president, they got it-and as such, they get everything else that comes with it.
Way to keep reminding me of why I miss you so much, Obama.
LemonMelon
More 5G Than Man
So Biden's polling averages are catering in the past 24 hours because old polls are being deleted, not because new, unfavorable ones are coming in? That's good to know, because even I would have found a half a point drop in 24 hours somewhat troubling.
DaveC
Blue Crack Addict
where? he's up slightly over yesterday on RCP and basically flat on 538.
LemonMelon
More 5G Than Man
He dropped from 9.8 to 9.2 in a day on 538? Maybe it was 48 hours then and I'm misremembering.
womanfish
Rock n' Roll Doggie ALL ACCESS
No you are correct. 538 dropped 9.8 to 9.2 this morning. RCP is a little different. I think they pretty much weight all polls in the last 30 days the same. Where 538 diminishes the strength of the polls over time. It was bound to happen. I mean Biden was having +14's and +16's for a little stretch there. Not something that probably was sustainable.
If you look at the averages of the A and B rated pollsters over the last 10 days you get: (I'm leaving out the daily tracking polls (IBD and USC) cause together they pretty much have averaged +9 for the last week or so)
24th - +9
23rd - +9
22nd - +9
21st - +9
20 - +9.3
19th - +11.5
18th - no polls
17th - no polls
16th - 1 poll - +10
15th - 10.25
14th - +9.5
That puts the average over the last 10 days from higher rated polls at +9.6
So the polling has been pretty steady.
And other than NYT and Quinnipiac over the last few days there hasn't been any big national outfits like Fox News, ABC, CNN, etc...
I would guess we see one last round from the big names this coming week, except for NYT, i think they are done.
Also, the polling could get a little weird, with so many early votes, it's not clear how all polling organizations are dealing with that. Are they counting people that have voted already as Likely Voters? or are they trying to just poll people that haven't voted... hard to say.
Either way, the state level polling has pointed to Biden being at about +9 nationally for over a month now. So it is probably about right what we are seeing. But like I noted earlier, the district level contest polling is looking like it would mean a stronger national lead for Biden. So it really means that we will find out in 10 days which way the wind is blowing.
womanfish
Rock n' Roll Doggie ALL ACCESS
phanan
Blue Crack Addict
If Biden can stay around +8 by the end of this, that works for me.
LemonMelon
More 5G Than Man
57 million people having voted a week before Halloween is incredible to me. Right now the assumption is that around 150-160 million will vote, which is a big improvement over 2016 and could make all the difference.
LuckyNumber7
Blue Crack Addict
I think we should expect an increase over 2016 in voter participation but I think we might be disappointed if we expect records to be broken.
OP
OP
Hewson
Blue Crack Supplier
That actor playing Trump is a bit too skinny to be a realistic portrayal.
dazzledbylight
Blue Crack Supplier
Hey, that's us!!! 
My sis voted today! I will vote either next Weds, Thurs or Fri (depends on raininess).
I understand. Heard a lot of interviews w him. Very much looking forward to this!
His still photography was wonderful!OMFG! Bwaahahahaaaa ! Perfect!
"I got a feeling, a feeling deep inside. Oh, yeah. Oho, yeAH!".
THIS. and THIS.
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womanfish
Rock n' Roll Doggie ALL ACCESS
Moonlit_Angel
Blue Crack Addict
But remember, we're supposed to be sympathetic towards these guys when they get sick!
DaveC
Blue Crack Addict
MrsSpringsteen
Blue Crack Addict
NY Times
Several members of Vice President Mike Pence’s inner circle, including at least four members of his staff, have tested positive for the coronavirus in the past few days, people briefed on the matter said, raising new questions about the safety protocols at the White House, where masks are not routinely worn.
Devin O’Malley, a spokesman for Pence, said that the vice president’s chief of staff, Marc Short, had tested positive. A person briefed on the diagnosis said he received it Saturday.
“Vice President Pence and Mrs. Pence both tested negative for COVID-19 today and remain in good health,” O’Malley said, adding, “While Vice President Pence is considered a close contact with Mr. Short, in consultation with the White House Medical Unit, the vice president will maintain his schedule in accordance with the CDC guidelines for essential personnel.”
The statement did not come from the White House medical unit but instead from a press aide. Two people briefed on the matter said that the White House chief of staff, Mark Meadows, had sought to keep news of the outbreak from becoming public.
A spokeswoman for Meadows did not immediately respond to an email seeking comment.
A Trump adviser briefed on the outbreak, who was not authorized to speak publicly, said that Pence adviser Marty Obst also recently tested positive. Obst’s positive result was earlier in the week. His positive test was first reported by Bloomberg News.
A third person briefed on the developments, who also was not authorized to speak publicly, said that three additional Pence staff members had tested positive. O’Malley did not immediately respond to a question about others who had tested positive.
The decision by Pence, who leads the White House Coronavirus Task Force, to continue campaigning is certain to raise new questions about how seriously the White House is taking the risks to its own staff members and the public from the pandemic that has killed more than 224,000 people in the United States. Short has been among those within the White House who have questioned the extensive lockdowns across the country.
Several members of Vice President Mike Pence’s inner circle, including at least four members of his staff, have tested positive for the coronavirus in the past few days, people briefed on the matter said, raising new questions about the safety protocols at the White House, where masks are not routinely worn.
Devin O’Malley, a spokesman for Pence, said that the vice president’s chief of staff, Marc Short, had tested positive. A person briefed on the diagnosis said he received it Saturday.
“Vice President Pence and Mrs. Pence both tested negative for COVID-19 today and remain in good health,” O’Malley said, adding, “While Vice President Pence is considered a close contact with Mr. Short, in consultation with the White House Medical Unit, the vice president will maintain his schedule in accordance with the CDC guidelines for essential personnel.”
The statement did not come from the White House medical unit but instead from a press aide. Two people briefed on the matter said that the White House chief of staff, Mark Meadows, had sought to keep news of the outbreak from becoming public.
A spokeswoman for Meadows did not immediately respond to an email seeking comment.
A Trump adviser briefed on the outbreak, who was not authorized to speak publicly, said that Pence adviser Marty Obst also recently tested positive. Obst’s positive result was earlier in the week. His positive test was first reported by Bloomberg News.
A third person briefed on the developments, who also was not authorized to speak publicly, said that three additional Pence staff members had tested positive. O’Malley did not immediately respond to a question about others who had tested positive.
The decision by Pence, who leads the White House Coronavirus Task Force, to continue campaigning is certain to raise new questions about how seriously the White House is taking the risks to its own staff members and the public from the pandemic that has killed more than 224,000 people in the United States. Short has been among those within the White House who have questioned the extensive lockdowns across the country.
Ah shit now our local numbers are going to go up again.
womanfish
Rock n' Roll Doggie ALL ACCESS
9.8 to 9.2...i guess we have different definitions of "cratering".
Yeah, that is true. LOL. I wouldn't use the term cratering for sure. Especially since Biden's polling has been 8-11 with good pollsters for the last 10 days. It's just settling back to a more realistic number. I think that because it went from 10.7 to 9.2 in about 4 days made some people get nervous.
But as you pointed out it actually went up a bit on RCP. Just the difference between what polls are used for the averages and how they are calculated.
On another polling note. I knew the polling would get weird. This morning, there are some interesting ones.
UT Tyler has Biden +2 in TX. Pretty reasonable.
Good ol' Trafalgar is up to their same ol nonsense
They have FL, AZ and MI all Trump +3
Sure, I expect those numbers from them in FL and AZ. But to have MI at the same number is absolutely hilarious.
Then you have a YouGov. A good pollster.
GA - tied
FL - Biden +2
Ok. sure looks normal.
Then..
N.D. - Biden +4
ummmm... This could be the outlier of the year.
womanfish
Rock n' Roll Doggie ALL ACCESS
Ah, update
There was a misprint on the YouGov poll. They meant NC, Not N.D.
The world is back to making sense now
There was a misprint on the YouGov poll. They meant NC, Not N.D.
The world is back to making sense now
MrsSpringsteen
Blue Crack Addict
And of course Pence isn't stepping off the campaign trail like Senator Harris did. He is doing in person events, and he is classified as an "essential worker" lol
Sad state of affairs when the WH Chief of Staff says we are not going to control the pandemic. We wouldn't be in this position if your idiot boss had taken proper measures. Instead he ignored the task force plan and told states to liberate.
How about a national mask mandate? Nah, the Trump cultists wouldn't stand for that.
Sad state of affairs when the WH Chief of Staff says we are not going to control the pandemic. We wouldn't be in this position if your idiot boss had taken proper measures. Instead he ignored the task force plan and told states to liberate.
How about a national mask mandate? Nah, the Trump cultists wouldn't stand for that.
womanfish
Rock n' Roll Doggie ALL ACCESS
The early vote numbers make things very difficult to really get a hold on anything that is very credible. I think it will be useful to look at the larger live-caller, high-rated polls that come in this week, to see if there are any substantial changes but that's about it.
The two things that I am looking at now, are TX and FL.
I do think that the early numbers here could tell us a some information that could be useful. One is good and the other not so much.
I will post later today about my thoughts on that. I'll just say, along with GA, which Biden is visiting today I think. He should head to TX. (Let Harris hit FL) I'll leave it at that for now.
Yeah. Frankly I’m just ignoring early voting information at this point and will basically follow the polls.
In other news, Mitchel McConnell’s hands look reeeeally weird (I promise I’m being literal).
womanfish
Rock n' Roll Doggie ALL ACCESS
Just in case anyone thinks about freaking out over Trafalgar polls.
I'll give you some findings in the crosstabs of the MI poll.
Trump winning 18-24 yr olds by 18 points. (Most polls show Biden winning this group by almost 60 points)
Trump getting almost 30% of black voters (most polls show somewhere around 8-12)
Trump getting 29% of DEM voters! ( average of other polls show him getting around 5%)
Trump down by 2 points with women (most polls are showing a -20 for Trump)
Trump winning Indys by 3 points (most polls show Biden winning them by 10-15)
bottom line. Complete shit show of a poll
I'll give you some findings in the crosstabs of the MI poll.
Trump winning 18-24 yr olds by 18 points. (Most polls show Biden winning this group by almost 60 points)
Trump getting almost 30% of black voters (most polls show somewhere around 8-12)
Trump getting 29% of DEM voters! ( average of other polls show him getting around 5%)
Trump down by 2 points with women (most polls are showing a -20 for Trump)
Trump winning Indys by 3 points (most polls show Biden winning them by 10-15)
bottom line. Complete shit show of a poll
womanfish
Rock n' Roll Doggie ALL ACCESS
Well, I was close!
https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/1320431713021878272
Here we go...
@KamalaHarris
heading to TEXAS on Friday, per a Dem briefed
https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/1320431713021878272
Here we go...
@KamalaHarris
heading to TEXAS on Friday, per a Dem briefed
dazzledbylight
Blue Crack Supplier
Stay safe, Kamala and team!
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