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Old 10-06-2020, 11:57 AM   #981
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https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/...94764759678978
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Old 10-06-2020, 12:19 PM   #982
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It's the blessing of the 2016 poll myth. Dems are overly worried and convinced they can't sit this one out and are primed to go vote. Trumpers are convinced polls are fake news and their superhero will pull it out in the end. Definitely a good position for Dems to be in.
They are writing it off on account of the fact that Trump has a "yuuuuuge enthusiasm gap advantage" because nobody is excited about Joe.

What they are totally failing to consider is the number of people who would crawl over glass to vote for whoever was the Democratic nominee, cats, dogs and llamas included.
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Old 10-06-2020, 12:29 PM   #983
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It's really all about Bumble searches, guys.
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Old 10-06-2020, 12:35 PM   #984
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This really says it all.
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Old 10-06-2020, 12:39 PM   #985
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It's really all about Bumble searches, guys.
Trump coasting to victory on the backs of single broads across America.
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Old 10-06-2020, 12:40 PM   #986
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clearly, in normal times and without the wound of 2016 still fresh and open, we would be speaking not as to whether or not Biden will win, but whether or not he'll come close to Reagan/Mondale territory.

alas - it's not normal times, and 2016 still haunts our country. i don't really want to hear about "polling myths" from 2016. nobody of any reasonable mind anticipated trump would win. this includes trump himself.

alas... here are the questions i have for the remaining 28 days.

1. what impact will the republican's war on mail in ballots have? will it be enough to overturn what seems to be an insurmountable lead? (i can't stress enough - if you are able to vote in person and you live in a red state? vote in person)
2. will there be violence at polling sites on election day and what impact will that have?
3. will we know the result on election day?
4. we know that the russians infiltrated voting rolls in 2016 but didn't do anything (we think). was that a dry run for 2020?
5. what impact will trump's inevitable relapse and recurring issues from covid - from incapacitation/coma/incubation to the not impossible idea that he still may not survive his infection - have on the election?
6. is there still a wild card out there that we're not anticipating that could hurt biden?
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Old 10-06-2020, 12:46 PM   #987
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Can something still happen over the next 28 days that totally shifts things as they currently are? Of course. I think everyone knows that.

But I think too much is being made of 2016, tbh. Even going by the 2016 scenario, Biden is still clearly winning this right now.
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Old 10-06-2020, 12:49 PM   #988
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Biden and Harris should not be doing these debates in person.

At least not without every person passing a covid test, right then and there. No honor system.

Don’t put it past these assholes to being infected staff
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Old 10-06-2020, 12:54 PM   #989
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Yeah, I mean, not that she was black. But you literally have two choices and one IS a white supremacist. Just found it funny that she would call herself undecided. But your last point may be why.
Oh, yeah... like eye roll funny,
thus the "DduuuuHh" from me.

as for those polls 👍👍👍
Keep GOTVing!
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Old 10-06-2020, 01:08 PM   #990
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SurveyUSA (A-rated on 538) just came out with Biden +10 in FL.
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Old 10-06-2020, 01:17 PM   #991
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https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/...413992961?s=21

Experts are worried about a twindemic, and here’s our brave little soldier tweeting out nonsense again.

A lot of Southern Hemisphere countries that took strong covid restrictions were able to avoid any flu outbreak.

I’m not sure America will be so lucky, at least in those states that seem to defy mask or health orders.

Hell, The flu is a huge risk to President Trump considering his battle with covid
What a fucking asshole with that tweet! My friend died from COVID and my aunt died a few weeks ago from complications of her pneumonia a few months back and this Asshole is here saying that the flue is more deadly??? I don’t wish death on anyone but I wouldn’t be the least bit sad if he went!!!
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Old 10-06-2020, 01:27 PM   #992
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Headache in a Suitcase View Post
clearly, in normal times and without the wound of 2016 still fresh and open, we would be speaking not as to whether or not Biden will win, but whether or not he'll come close to Reagan/Mondale territory.

alas - it's not normal times, and 2016 still haunts our country. i don't really want to hear about "polling myths" from 2016. nobody of any reasonable mind anticipated trump would win. this includes trump himself.

alas... here are the questions i have for the remaining 28 days.

1. what impact will the republican's war on mail in ballots have? will it be enough to overturn what seems to be an insurmountable lead? (i can't stress enough - if you are able to vote in person and you live in a red state? vote in person)
2. will there be violence at polling sites on election day and what impact will that have?
3. will we know the result on election day?
4. we know that the russians infiltrated voting rolls in 2016 but didn't do anything (we think). was that a dry run for 2020?
5. what impact will trump's inevitable relapse and recurring issues from covid - from incapacitation/coma/incubation to the not impossible idea that he still may not survive his infection - have on the election?
6. is there still a wild card out there that we're not anticipating that could hurt biden?
I totally agree and mentioned most of those caveats in my post. And I think the biggest ones you mention that I didn't think as much about are probably are 4 and 6.

That said. It remains imperative that everyone not just vote, but volunteer and get at least one or two people who may be wishy washy on voting to get to the polls. I used to drive people to the polls every year but not sure they are going to be doing that this year.
It has to be a big win. It has to be overwhelming. That's why I'm really hoping Biden can pull at least one or two of GA, FL, NC, OH or TX.
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Old 10-06-2020, 01:28 PM   #993
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Interesting poll just out from A rated poll SurveyUSA.

They have Biden +10, but in their write up, said that people that were polled post Trump Covid infection, were +16.
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Old 10-06-2020, 01:32 PM   #994
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https://twitter.com/kfaulders/status...731745792?s=21
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Old 10-06-2020, 01:36 PM   #995
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Also, a shout out to Bernie Sanders. Saw him do two in person events for Biden in NH and MI. Very cool!
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Old 10-06-2020, 02:00 PM   #996
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Also, a shout out to Bernie Sanders. Saw him do two in person events for Biden in NH and MI. Very cool!
Did he decimate Trump like he usually does? I hope so.
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Old 10-06-2020, 02:16 PM   #997
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More and more polls. This time state polls from Change Research. Not the most highly rated, but part of the avg nonetheless.

WI Biden +7
PA Biden +4
NC Biden +2
MI Biden +8
FL Biden +4
AZ Biden +6

So they may not have a great rating, but they are pretty much spot on the current averages here, with a little bump in FL and AZ, and a little dip in PA.
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Old 10-06-2020, 02:39 PM   #998
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What's been the biggest surprise for you polling-wise?

I'd have to say I'm pleasantly surprised by AZ and how steady it's been. It probably matters a lot that the Democrats are fielding a very good candidate for the Senate seat and the Republicans are fielding an incompetent woman whom the voters of Arizona already rejected once. I wouldn't have necessarily thought that Arizona would be polling that much better than North Carolina - I figured they'd be up or down by about the same %.
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Old 10-06-2020, 03:00 PM   #999
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i know we need to act like he's 20 points behind, but this did give me pause:

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The president, seeing ominous signs of this earlier in the year, sought to scare these voters back into his camp, warning of an assault on the suburbs and violence visiting their families and communities. But this tactic appears to have backfired. Recent internal polling from Republicans and Democrats alike suggests that Trump’s law-and-order messaging alienated far more women than it attracted.

This isn’t just a problem for Trump in purple states. Last week, I heard from one of the smartest Republicans alive, a longtime party operator who lives in a state Trump carried by double digits. He told me the polling he was seeing there was something out of a nightmare; these were numbers he never expected to see in his lifetime. The only thing more dizzying than that? I had another conversation, with another dependable red-state Republican, the very next day, and heard the very same thing. Both of these men were sounding the alarm, alerting me that Trump could actually lose their states, and would at the very least drag down a number of down-ballot Republicans, because women have turned on the GOP at a historic clip. Trump lost women by 13 points to Clinton, according to exit polls, and Republicans have long worried that the figure could climb into the high teens. There is now genuine worry that the margin could explode north of 20 points—the biggest gender gap in modern election history.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazi...otebook-426599
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Old 10-06-2020, 03:03 PM   #1000
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and, wow. Trump just ended COVID relief negotiations until after the election.

as they always do, the GOP is going to sabotage the economy and blame the winning Democrat, who will work hard to build it back up, and they will, and then they will lose, and the GOP will get drunk and slash taxes for the wealthy and jack up spending and assault the environment and send us into another economic catastrophe and then lose an election and another Democrat will come in with a dustpan and rise and repeat ...
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