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Old 10-05-2020, 10:30 PM   #941
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https://twitter.com/TeamTrump/status...458926080?s=19
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Old 10-05-2020, 10:30 PM   #942
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Originally Posted by anitram View Post
I just don't understand what 1/3 of the US is thinking when the see something like that.


Werner Herzog said it best: "Dear America: You are waking up, as Germany once did, to the awareness that 1/3 of your people would kill another 1/3, while 1/3 watches."



but will Joe Biden pack the courts?
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Old 10-05-2020, 10:53 PM   #943
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https://twitter.com/maryellenklas/st...546013696?s=21
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Old 10-05-2020, 11:20 PM   #944
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So after what he did tonight. I don't give a shit what happens to him. He walked straight into the WH with no mask with other people standing right there. The worse that comes to him the better. He is literally encourage the killing of tens of thousands of more people.

The only silver lining was seeing his very labored breathing and apparent pain when trying to put his mask in his pocket. A second trip to Walter Reed would be a shame.
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Old 10-05-2020, 11:36 PM   #945
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He won’t go back.
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Old 10-05-2020, 11:56 PM   #946
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He won’t go back.


Given his labored breathing, his ghost will haunt the White House for 200 years.
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Old 10-06-2020, 12:10 AM   #947
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US Politics XXVI: Sorry you're not Canada

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Given his labored breathing, his ghost will haunt the White House for 200 years.




Was hoping for a Klan member with a Trump toupee but this will do.
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Old 10-06-2020, 12:25 AM   #948
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Again: not wishing death.

But he seems to be doing everything wrong for a 74-year old, 322lb man infected with a deadly virus that has shut down the globe.
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Old 10-06-2020, 12:34 AM   #949
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So, the debates. Just speculating what will happen for the rest of them. Pence v Harris still seems a go, but Pence should be isolating for so many reasons. Harris would be foolhardy to get in the same space as someone so close to Trump, but the optics of her pulling out would be terrible.

Ideally Pence and Trump are unable to attend their next debates leaving Harris and Biden with a solo 90 minutes to field questions. I think Biden would do pretty well in the town hall format by himself, reaching people directly seems to be part of his strategy.

Whether or not Trump attends debate #3 in 2 weeks time assumes we’re cocky enough to make predictions that far out in these crazy times.
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Old 10-06-2020, 12:54 AM   #950
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Detroit News/WDIV-TV poll in Michigan:
Biden 48%
Trump 39%
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Old 10-06-2020, 02:43 AM   #951
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I can't sleep, so I wanted to do a post that may give some perspective on the polling and 2016, and it's enduring myth that it was so disastrously wrong. And because of 2016 PTSD, Dems tend to freak out and worry about the polls and what will happen. Maybe this gives some piece of mind.

So we have two very different races. 2016 was volatile and we had two very real October surprises that shook up the race temporarily. State polls in the midwest were off more than the national avg, but within the margin of error. WI, almost 5 points, MI, around 3, and PA around 1.

But the national avg was almost spot on.

Here was Clinton's avg lead over the time leading up to the election.

Late September - Clinton +2.6
Early October - Clinton +6.2 (access hollywood time)
Mid October - Clinton +5.5
Late October/Early Nov - Clinton +2.9 (Comey announcement)

So the national polls were at 2.9% and Clinton won the popular vote by 2.2%

Things are a lot different now. The race is the most stable in the history of modern polling. Surprise after surprise has shown the polls to be nearly unshakable.
Most pollsters have adjusted their weighting to fix 2016 issues, and Trump is now the incumbent, and now undecides are breaking to Biden where they broke heavily for Trump in 2016.
You have a popular and liked candidate vs a disliked candidate now, where in 2016, the fav/unfav of both candidates were nearly identical.

We know that Biden has to be getting 5+% nationally in order to win the EC. Right now Biden is at +8. He is on a bit of an upswing right now, Moving from 7.1 to 8.2 over the last two weeks. I believe 6.6 is the lowest he's been at on 538 in the last 5 months.

And to put it in an even starker frame. If Biden can hold an 8 point lead, that puts him a much greater chance to have a landslide election than a squeaker.

These next two weeks i think will be the most pivotal. Will Trump's health turn to the worse? Will he get better quickly and be back on the trail and in another debate. Will the VP debate actually mean something more this time? Will covid cases continue to rise? Is there some other late surprise?

The obvious caveats to a much larger mail in vote this time, and a much more concerted voter disenfranchisement/voter intimidation effort than last time. But I also think that the enthusiasm and participation this time will be historic. And greater turnout benefits the Dems.

So lets see what happens the next 14 days or so, and where this is headed. Biden >+9??? or Biden <7??? I don't know. My best guess. Biden sits right around 8% til about the last week, and we see a slight late tightening to about 7.5. But that's just my gut at this point.
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Old 10-06-2020, 02:45 AM   #952
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Well he is a bat


Rudy looks worse than usual...
... early covid?
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Old 10-06-2020, 02:52 AM   #953
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Well, that seems a bit encouraging, wf.

I want a super team of white hat hackers on Joe's team to be some how studying each state wide tabulations. I want others keeping an eye out protecting sensitive voting places to prevent intimidation of black and other poc voters, etc.
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Old 10-06-2020, 03:02 AM   #954
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Oh, one last thing before I try to sleep.

Only caught a small bit of the Biden town hall. But again, the “undecideds” were hilarious as usual. One of them, a female person of color, said she was undecided and her biggest concern was about how to stop the spread of white nationalist groups. Ummmm... who are you deciding between again?
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Old 10-06-2020, 04:24 AM   #955
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Saw about half...

I did see her...
heh, I get what you're saying bc how could she be undecided as a black woman, considering the choice!
Feels like a DUuuuHhh moment.

OTOH - you're going to be on TV in this rather highly focused event - maybe she just wanted to hear something more concrete from Biden on the subject considering she's in the targeted group. More reassurance.
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Old 10-06-2020, 08:43 AM   #956
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It's just one poll, but 57-41 on CNN is quite something.

Probably an outlier, but there were a couple of Biden up in double digits polls this week. And that's before the video of a COVID-infected Trump walking around the WH without a mask.
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Old 10-06-2020, 08:48 AM   #957
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Would appear that the lesson trump learned was that this is just the flu and we should reopen everything
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Old 10-06-2020, 08:54 AM   #958
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Mayor Pete has been in Salt Lake City helping Senator Harris prepare for the debate. He is believed to be playing the part of Pence.
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Old 10-06-2020, 09:01 AM   #959
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Trump is tweeting about late term abortion.

Which doesn’t sound desperate and scattershot at all.
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Old 10-06-2020, 09:05 AM   #960
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It's just one poll, but 57-41 on CNN is quite something.

Probably an outlier, but there were a couple of Biden up in double digits polls this week. And that's before the video of a COVID-infected Trump walking around the WH without a mask.
I'd write it off as a total outlier were it not for the (much better quality) NBC/WSJ poll that had him at +14 a couple of days ago.
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