US Politics XXVI: Sorry you're not Canada

[dazzledbylight]

You (Drumph, Repugs enablers) don't get sympathy when you've dished various massive amounts degrees of cruelty, bullying, racism, sexism, ridicule, lying, further shredding the safety net, etc over, and over and... in general these past ? 3.1 years

Then add add another .8 year of LYING to us about covid19! Then you drumph & co go to the debate knowing your infected maskless, and then NJ.


-----> See this . <---- world's smallest violin.

 

[bono_212]

He posted a new video on Twitter, he is not in bad condition. CNN is showing the video.

I don't know if this has been discussed, but not go full-on conspiracy theory, that video is VERY clearly edited to cover him doing something. Likely coughing.

 

[LuckyNumber7]

I mean I think the video shows he’s ill. He’s pale and sounds hoarse. But I don’t think there’s any reason to believe he’s in a worse condition than he’s presented.

He sure as fuck isn’t doing any real work though.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

I believe he was writing out the Fox News schedule for the week since he left his TV Guide back in the oval

 

[MrsSpringsteen]

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

[emoji3531]

 

[gump]

The pictures of Trump “working” from Walter Reed have a distinct late-Soviet aesthetic.

They are so clearly staged. Signing a blank piece of paper, moving to another room and putting on a jacket, etc.


[TWEET]1312616578773446656[/TWEET]

 

[anitram]

I’m surprised he didn’t insist on his hair getting done.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

They are so clearly staged. Signing a blank piece of paper, moving to another room and putting on a jacket, etc.


[TWEET]1312616578773446656[/TWEET]

lol

 

[womanfish]

So I thought it would be interesting to go back and look at 2012 results and see why I am bullish on some states (GA and AZ) while I'm skeptical of others (IA) and why NC is like a mini FL.

Biggest thing, is look at the shift in the midwest states. Just enormous. But then see AZ, GA and TX. Large shifts to the left. While FL and NC has sort of remained static, making them hard to predict.

I think GA has a real shot to go blue, because of the consistent trend left. I think TX is headed that way but will probably fall short this cycle, since it is just outside of the average shift to Biden that we see. I also think we are seeing near Obama 2012 numbers for Biden in the midwest this time around, which makes some sense, although a lot of this driven by Covid attitudes of voters and how Trump handled it. Ohio will be close. There's this narrative out there that OH has been lost for Dems and its a red state now. But Obama won it twice. But it did have a harder shift right than other midwest states, so it will be down to the wire here. The craziest shift is IA. That shifted 15 points right. That's why I think IA is just too far of a swing back for Biden to win it this time.


2012 AZ R+10 2016 - R+3.5 Shift - D 6.5
2012 FL D+1 2016 - R+1.3 Shift - R 2.3
2012 GA R+8 2016 - R+5 Shift - D 3.0
2012 IA D+6 2016 - R+9 Shift - R 15.0
2012 MI D+9 2016 - R +.5 Shift - R 9.5
2012 MN D+8 2016 - D+1.8 Shift - R 6.2
2012 WI D+7 2016 - R +.5 Shift - R 7.5
2012 PA D+5 2016 - R +.5 Shift - R 5.5
2012 OH D+2 2016 - R +8 Shift - R 10.0
2012 NC R+3 2016 - R +3.7 Shift - R .7
2012 TX R+16 2016 - R +9 Shift - D 7.0

 

[womanfish]

New NBC national poll

Biden +14

Two things of note. This is Registered Voters, not Likely voters. That means, that a more accurate Likely voter result would probably be Biden +12.

This was taken post debate, and 2 of the 3 days of post Covid result.

Also, Ispos poll, taken fully post Covid result is at Biden +10. This is up one point from the Ispos poll taken post-debate but pre Covid result.

 

[anitram]

NBC/Wall Street Journal Poll has Biden up +14 nationally and Trump losing with men 50+ which is just about the worst subgroup to be down with if you're him.

Oops, didn't see womanfish post above.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

I understand the worry of a rally around the flag moment, but when the thing we're supposed to be rallying around is the president and a large number of the republican leadership catching the virus that they've spent the past 7 months downplaying due to their own reckless behavior?

Yea not sure that boat floats.

 

[womanfish]

Any way you slice it, Trump so far has not gotten a "sympathy bump". But more polling remains to be seen.

 

[womanfish]

I understand the worry of a rally around the flag moment, but when the thing we're supposed to be rallying around is the president and a large number of the republican leadership catching the virus that they've spent the past 7 months downplaying due to their own reckless behavior?

Yea not sure that boat floats.

I was thinking the exact same thing. If it was just Trump, the rally could have been possible. With 7 other people or whatever, it paints an entirely different picture. A picture of a reckless group of people that ran into reality, over what they've been telling the public.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

I was thinking the exact same thing. If it was just Trump, the rally could have been possible. With 7 other people or whatever, it paints an entirely different picture. A picture of a reckless group of people that ran into reality, over what they've been telling the public.

Even if it were just, like, the Trump's and Hope Hicks? Yea I don't think that's going to do it.

Hypothetically speaking - if there were an attack of some sort? That might do the trick. But the president getting the virus he spent most of the year downplaying? After mocking Biden's mask wearing WHILE HAVING THE FUCKING VIRUS???

If you're sympathetic to that, your loyalties were never really in doubt to begin with.

 

[gump]

I understand the worry of a rally around the flag moment, but when the thing we're supposed to be rallying around is the president and a large number of the republican leadership catching the virus that they've spent the past 7 months downplaying due to their own reckless behavior?

Yea not sure that boat floats.

I hear you. But counterpoint: people are dumb.

 

[anitram]

People are dumb and in this case it actually works in our favour.

What are they supposed to be rallying for? A president who has caught a virus which according to them causes minor sniffles? A president who is hospitalized under the false pretense of a virus so he can plan on arresting Hillary Clinton and personally dismantle 5G towers? A GOP who is so inept that due to its own recklessness can't field the votes for a SCOTUS nominee?

Combine that with the notion that we may have a week or two or three where this asshole isn't braying on every TV channel and instead the reporting is centred on yet another and yet another GOP operative to come down with the sniffles.

 

[BEAL]

Setting aside the Q theories

The campaign and GOP narrative is

Trump risked his life for the American people. He got sick, recovered, and working harder than any human ever has.

He’s showing us that we too need to go out, take our mask off, and get back to Americaning like the good old days.

Trump showed us how!!!

One thing with Trump and everyone who’s associated with them, the worst is yet to come. They’re acting like this is the flu. You catch it, for a few days you feel bad, then you’re back to the exact same life you had before.

Donald is not out of the weeds yet. Covid is slower to move than the flu, and once it really hits you just never know. They’re acting like he’s fully recovered but I’m not sure he gets out of bed for another few weeks.

I am not wishing harm on him at all. My hope is that it would infect his brain and release empathy and compassion. Not sure that’s realistic.

Instead my hope is that the nation can see that these clowns haven’t had, and won’t do any plan to protect the rest of us. New leadership is necessary to have any chance of moving on from this.

And we’re not even at the second wave yet. Europe and Israel are both hitting the beginning of theirs now and minus Israel Europe seemed to have their shit together.

Again, with Trump....the worst is yet to come

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

I hear you. But counterpoint: people are dumb.

Touché

 

[womanfish]

YouGov state polls

OH - tied
PA - Biden +7 Matching Sienna's latest number and SurveyMonkeys (yeah I know surveymonkey sucks, but they may have gotten this one right)

 

[Hewson]

He sure as fuck isn’t doing any real work though.

Just like any other day that ends in "Y".

 

[Hewson]

I understand the worry of a rally around the flag moment, but when the thing we're supposed to be rallying around is the president and a large number of the republican leadership catching the virus that they've spent the past 7 months downplaying due to their own reckless behavior?

Yea not sure that boat floats.

With normal folks it definitely sinks.
With his base, it soars to the heavens. Unless he takes a turn for the worse(and it is publicly known), this will work in his favor.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

With normal folks it definitely sinks.

With his base, it soars to the heavens. Unless he takes a turn for the worse(and it is publicly known), this will work in his favor.

Yea but his base is going to support him and believe ridiculous bullshit about Biden no matter what

 

[Moonlit_Angel]

I was thinking the exact same thing. If it was just Trump, the rally could have been possible. With 7 other people or whatever, it paints an entirely different picture. A picture of a reckless group of people that ran into reality, over what they've been telling the public.

This. Like I said before, compare this to the professionalism Biden's currently showing, and the choice is pretty clear.

Plus, people have been pretty well tired of this administration and ready to get them out of here as it is. Seeing this complete clusterfuck is only going to further motivate them to make that happen. We've already seen how little we can trust them with this pandemic based on how it's affected the country, and now we're seeing they can't even handle it within the White House. And we're supposed to trust them to handle anything else?

I am not wishing harm on him at all. My hope is that it would infect his brain and release empathy and compassion. Not sure that’s realistic.

'SNL" made a joke last night about the idea of this being Trump's Ebenezer Scrooge moment, with the three ghosts coming to visit him at night. I'd been thinking a similar thing for a while . But honestly, I'm not exactly holding my breath on that happening.

 

[Irvine511]

Yea but his base is going to support him and believe ridiculous bullshit about Biden no matter what

But as we’ve seen in here, the amount of people who strive to create permission structures — BUT WHAT ABOUT BIDEN PACKING THE COURT?!?!?!??!? THEY SAYIN’ THINGS ABOUT AMY’S CHILDREN!!!!!!! — in order to explain to themselves a vote for someone they know is objectively stupid and monstrous, because they hate the other side so much, is perhaps vanishing.

These structures are vanishing.

 

[BEAL]

The GOP have every right to confirm a new justice right now. Elections have consequences. Had Mitch not fucked over Obama by blocking federal judges and the SC Garland nomination, probably wouldn’t be as big of an uproar (and the structure / balance of court would be different).

But the GOP need to accept their own medicine if Dems end up winning the senate and presidency and go on to expand and pack the court.

Elections have consequences

 

[BEAL]

https://twitter.com/laurie_garrett/status/1312785487824855040?s=21

 

[womanfish]

The GOP have every right to confirm a new justice right now. Elections have consequences. Had Mitch not fucked over Obama by blocking federal judges and the SC Garland nomination, probably wouldn’t be as big of an uproar (and the structure / balance of court would be different).

But the GOP need to accept their own medicine if Dems end up winning the senate and presidency and go on to expand and pack the court.

Elections have consequences

Right now its a tie in the Senate Judiciary committee has two gop members out. meaning they couldn't move Barrett forward in the process for 14 days if they quarantine. I'm now seeing reporting that they are going to break CDC rules and only quarantine for 10 days. So yeah, we see just how terrible these people are.

 

[womanfish]

Interesting numbers. ok. crazy number discrepancy here.

Biden leads in national polls since the debate:

+14
+13
+10
+10
+9
+7
+3
+2

So the average of those is 8.5 for Biden.

If you would remove what could be called outliers (14,13,2,3) The average is Biden +9 post debate.