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Old 03-09-2020, 12:24 PM   #41
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Also this. Biden is too often lumped in as "establishment" which is a way to try and make him seem like Hillary 2.0. He is not. His very broad support that has now been shown of minority voters, women, working class, etc... is two steps ahead of Clinton. And what else? People like him.

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/...20516764057602
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Old 03-09-2020, 12:24 PM   #42
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Old 03-09-2020, 12:38 PM   #43
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Yikes another MI poll just dropped with Biden +41

My guess is that this is an outlier...
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Old 03-09-2020, 12:52 PM   #44
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I think that Bernie will be done after tomorrow night.

And I don't think that Kamala Harris will be VP. Have you seen her video endorsement? It's the most unenthusiastic, dead-in-the-eyes thing ever.

Klobuchar is out there pounding away on the campaign trail and twitter like she knows it's hers...
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Old 03-09-2020, 12:53 PM   #45
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Also this. Biden is too often lumped in as "establishment" which is a way to try and make him seem like Hillary 2.0. He is not. His very broad support that has now been shown of minority voters, women, working class, etc... is two steps ahead of Clinton. And what else? People like him.

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/...20516764057602


Joe Biden was literally the Vice President during the last democrat presidency. It’s a hell of a hot take if you think he isn’t part of “the establishment.”

Clinton also had broad support with minority voters, women, and maybe not as much with blue collar folks but certainly with working class people. She had an issue with white middle class buttfuck-nowhere America really hating her guts via a decade long character attack by the opposing party.

Joe Biden is Clinton 2.0. The good news is he is less hated and, for some reason, the republicans only decided to make controversy about him like six months ago. He is more liked.
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Old 03-09-2020, 12:57 PM   #46
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US Politics XXI: Old Man 3-Way

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Yikes another MI poll just dropped with Biden +41

My guess is that this is an outlier...


Is it really an outlier? I think it’s incredibly easy to chalk his Massachusetts loss to Warren, but when you look at Minnesota results it seems a heck of a lot like there’s not the appetite for his brand in the way there was in 2016. Probably because of the two things we’ve discussed in the last thread - Hillary Clinton isn’t there to be hated, and a segment of his voters are probably fine with Donald Trump and didn’t vote.

For the record, in this case, I’m relating Minnesota to Michigan. For the conversation I was having with Irvine last thread, I firmly believe the left-wing-willing encompasses some 40-45% of the party and Sanders is still very much so capable of drawing that, but unlike 2016, it looks like he is more likely to get thst from places that actually make sense (California, Washington, Oregon, generally the West).

Like I said before though, Minnesota and Massachusetts were the big stories on Super Tuesday that nobody made big enough deals about. A strange focus on how Biden was killing it in places like Tennessee and Oklahoma and Arkansas.
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Old 03-09-2020, 12:59 PM   #47
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Joe Biden was literally the Vice President during the last democrat presidency. It’s a hell of a hot take if you think he isn’t part of “the establishment.”

Clinton also had broad support with minority voters, women, and maybe not as much with blue collar folks but certainly with working class people. She had an issue with white middle class buttfuck-nowhere America really hating her guts via a decade long character attack by the opposing party.

Joe Biden is Clinton 2.0. The good news is he is less hated and, for some reason, the republicans only decided to make controversy about him like six months ago. He is more liked.
Not saying he isn't the establishment. Saying that he is not Hillary Clinton.

We are seeing 20 to 30 point swings in these primary states to Biden vs. 2016 with Clinton and Sanders. So either people suddenly find Sanders very distasteful, or Biden is a much, much stronger candidate than Hillary was.

Broader point - Sanders making blanket "establishment" comments about anyone that well... isn't him. Is a way to make it seem like there is no difference between any of them. From the most liberal Congresspeople and Senators, to the most conservative. There are huge differences, and it is showing that Sanders old playbook just isn't working with people this time.
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Old 03-09-2020, 01:08 PM   #48
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https://twitter.com/ezraklein/status...41985799647232
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Old 03-09-2020, 01:08 PM   #49
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Is it really an outlier? I think it’s incredibly easy to chalk his Massachusetts loss to Warren, but when you look at Minnesota results it seems a heck of a lot like there’s not the appetite for his brand in the way there was in 2016. Probably because of the two things we’ve discussed in the last thread - Hillary Clinton isn’t there to be hated, and a segment of his voters are probably fine with Donald Trump and didn’t vote.

For the record, in this case, I’m relating Minnesota to Michigan. For the conversation I was having with Irvine last thread, I firmly believe the left-wing-willing encompasses some 40-45% of the party and Sanders is still very much so capable of drawing that, but unlike 2016, it looks like he is more likely to get thst from places that actually make sense (California, Washington, Oregon, generally the West).

Like I said before though, Minnesota and Massachusetts were the big stories on Super Tuesday that nobody made big enough deals about. A strange focus on how Biden was killing it in places like Tennessee and Oklahoma and Arkansas.
Yeah, I suppose. I heard last night that the early vote was going to Biden by almost 50 points. And those that planned to vote sameday, came back with Biden +11. So it may be that MI is a blowout. But I would have never guessed it. A few days ago, I would have said Biden wins by about 5 points. Now, I'm more inclined to say it will be near 20. And I'm trying to be cautious.
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Old 03-09-2020, 01:11 PM   #50
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I didn't think he'd be a good president but I figured he didn't want the job and would fuck off to the golf course (correct) or basically be like a figurehead who would go schmoozing and hold an inordinate number of state dinners and other events both at the WH and Mar-a-Lago while a competent/profession, though probably evil staff (think Dick Cheney types) would run the place.

Now I know how naive and stupid that was.
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Old 03-09-2020, 01:21 PM   #51
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I didn't think he'd be a good president but I figured he didn't want the job and would fuck off to the golf course (correct) or basically be like a figurehead who would go schmoozing and hold an inordinate number of state dinners and other events both at the WH and Mar-a-Lago while a competent/profession, though probably evil staff (think Dick Cheney types) would run the place.

Now I know how naive and stupid that was.
Yeah, I remember when a Trump supporter friend asked me in 2016, "what is the worst you expect if Trump is elected?" At that point, I said. I'm afraid that racism, and sexism and anti-LGBTQ attitudes would grow and become normalized.

Sigh. What a sweet little idiot I was.
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Old 03-09-2020, 01:24 PM   #52
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Yeah, I suppose. I heard last night that the early vote was going to Biden by almost 50 points. And those that planned to vote sameday, came back with Biden +11. So it may be that MI is a blowout. But I would have never guessed it. A few days ago, I would have said Biden wins by about 5 points. Now, I'm more inclined to say it will be near 20. And I'm trying to be cautious.


I would suspect Sanders gets walloped if the polls look like that. We can’t really trust that the polls are accurate predictors of true voting right now because of the volatility of candidates and the lack of poll performance over time with a static card, but I still think the clear message here is that Sanders won’t compete in Michigan.
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Old 03-09-2020, 01:24 PM   #53
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Soooooo....

If the polls are anywhere near true. What do you guys think will happen in Idaho and Nebraska? It would be unthinkable that Sanders lose these a few days ago. But now? I'm guessing Bernie edges them out somewhere in the 5-8 point range. But again, being cautious.

Also, if tomorrow is a real blowout. Bernie is gonna go off the rails at the next debate.
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Old 03-09-2020, 01:33 PM   #54
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He's a national treasure that one.
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Old 03-09-2020, 01:33 PM   #55
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I'm all for Bernie going off the rails in debates, I find it quite entertaining and with everything going to Hell we could use some of that.

I used to imitate Bernie to my late Mom and she loved it. It made her laugh so that's why I did it. She was so funny and had the best laugh. Sorry, just always thinking about her.
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Old 03-09-2020, 01:37 PM   #56
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Well he does still say "you're fired" a lot.
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Old 03-09-2020, 01:41 PM   #57
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I haven’t seen any polls for Nebraska but I bet that’s a close 50-50 state at this point.

I would also really love to see some fresh New York polls.
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Old 03-09-2020, 01:41 PM   #58
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I didn't think he'd be a good president but I figured he didn't want the job and would fuck off to the golf course (correct) or basically be like a figurehead who would go schmoozing and hold an inordinate number of state dinners and other events both at the WH and Mar-a-Lago while a competent/profession, though probably evil staff (think Dick Cheney types) would run the place.

Now I know how naive and stupid that was.
Yep, I thought sure he'd have been like the president in School of Hard Knockers:



In fact I think I may have posted this video here 4-ish years ago.
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Old 03-09-2020, 01:49 PM   #59
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Markets are crashing all over the place, but thank God that we can save a few pennies on gas! Even though the prices here in Vancouver are ridiculous! Thank god for the dear leader trump and his god given knowledge!
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Old 03-09-2020, 01:57 PM   #60
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I'm all for Bernie going off the rails in debates, I find it quite entertaining and with everything going to Hell we could use some of that.

I used to imitate Bernie to my late Mom and she loved it. It made her laugh so that's why I did it. She was so funny and had the best laugh. Sorry, just always thinking about her.


If Bernie were up against Trump in a debate, I can easily see him telling Trump to shut the hell up in no uncertain terms whenever Trump started in on some of his bullshit. Which would be immensely satisfying.

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I didn't think he'd be a good president but I figured he didn't want the job and would fuck off to the golf course (correct) or basically be like a figurehead who would go schmoozing and hold an inordinate number of state dinners and other events both at the WH and Mar-a-Lago while a competent/profession, though probably evil staff (think Dick Cheney types) would run the place.

Now I know how naive and stupid that was.
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Yeah, I remember when a Trump supporter friend asked me in 2016, "what is the worst you expect if Trump is elected?" At that point, I said. I'm afraid that racism, and sexism and anti-LGBTQ attitudes would grow and become normalized.

Sigh. What a sweet little idiot I was.
Yeah, I couldn't stand him well before he ever decided to run for president, because he always was an obnoxious asshole. So I knew full well he was going to be a crap president based off that alone. I never got why anyone bothered to give him the time of day at all for any reason, let alone think he'd be any sort of a good president.

But indeed, he sure has exceeded all my, and no doubt many others', expectations of just HOW awful a president he would be. If and when we get back Democratic control, we need to do everything in our power to make sure we never, ever get a president like Trump ever again.

ETA: I liked this tweet from somebody in the link Headache shared.

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I’ve covered warlords, dictators and corrupt authoritarians for decades, Mr. President, and they always threaten journalists. But in the end, they have a way of being toppled, even imprisoned, sometimes together with their corrupt family members. We will continue to do our jobs.
Just a much needed reminder to those who think Trump and his cronies are untouchable.
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