US Politics XIX: Just an Echo Chamber Living In Your Heads

[dazzledbylight]

Do you think it’s at all a stretch to think that stop-and-frisk as a policy is going to be more popular with whites in Ohio than Latinos in Jackson Heights?

It’s well known that conservatives are more racist. Even independent ones. If you voted for Donald Trump, you voted for a known racist who had appointed white supremacists like Stephen Miller into positions of power and was endorsed by David Duke.

So true, though there also are some liberal racists sadly.

Some people posted Bloomberg's stop and frisk comments. I have research - i'm wondering whether s&t started under Giuliani?

Have either of you tried it?

Although I’m racist against whites and come from a red state, I grew up on NY-adjacent pizza and bagels so I do know the struggle, but there are some options in the DC-area. I’m just trying to help out.

But, really, the thing that DC people like to hear most is people from NY complaining that DC isn’t NY. Because they thought it would be?

As s born & bred NYC'r - I find that strange. I mean DC is DC. And right on the Southern border, so how could it be NYC?
I love DC! So filled with so much history! Great Museums, too! Walking on The Mall, ahhhh. The reflecting pool. Lincoln Memorial (been there in the day, and at midnight).

I do feel bad for those of you too young to have visited it before they added so much more security barriers. I think it started after some guy flew a small into the White House (1st flr) during Clinton's admin. The barriers around the GW Monument hill, depressing.
When I stayed at a relative's mom's house (93?) I took a bus from Georgetown to some museum, and the bus zipped right by the WH. I was like , wow, you could just go past by it. Not anymore.
I've bern there by myself or with friends there maybe close to 8-10 times starting in ?71 , for fun AND at times for protests. It also snowed that day 6" by 6 pm. I was totally shocked and delighted while walking in GT to the bus seeing a Magnolia Tree with all it's leaves! It was the first time I hadn't been there in Spring, or Summer ; I had no idea it was a kind of evergreen tree!
Oh, yes, i've gone at Cherry Blossom time!
Sorry to go on. Good times!

You got some data for that?

And please, “actual sources” only.

snetk.

You’re the moderator, go back to when Irvine said that Christians will kick a few gays , among other niceties. I shouldn’t have to remind you, but you didn’t care and don’t now when anti Christian bigotry is espoused here.

I was surprised/not surprised you didn’t ban him, anytime Irvine mentions Christians, just substitute Muslims, and see if you would step in.

Yeah, exactly.

Glad Irvine schooled you with his list!

I'm sorry, what was it you were saying recently about Democrats being the ones always playing the victim?

Anyone paying even the slightest bit of attention knows full well that the Christianity we rail against here is the religious right kind that tries to restrict the rights of LGBTQ people and regulate what women can do with their bodies and try and push their faith on everyone around them and things of that sort, not your average everyday Christians who are actually decent, respectful, kind people who know how to mind their own fucking business and genuinely live by Jesus' words of helping others. Get over it.

 

[womanfish]

Early indications are that Biden is getting slaughtered

My prayers have been answered! he's slummin' it with Tulsi G.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

Combine Buttigieg and Klobuchar and Bernie loses New Hampshire, a state he dominated in 2016, and the entire narrative is changed.

Time for some of these fuckers to drop out.

 

[anitram]

Shaky Bangs is not that far from overtaking Mayor Pete. Who saw that coming....

And those two poll a combined 5% with black voters in SC.

Where are those votes going to go?

Bloomberg must be loving this.

 

[DaveC]

Bernie loses New Hampshire, a state he dominated in 2016

i was about to mention that he's currently winning by 6.5% and that there's more than two candidates running this time but i didn't realize this was the wishful thinking thread. my bad.

 

[womanfish]

goodbye Yang

 

[DaveC]

i for one am glad that he pitched the worst possible version of UBI so that generally bad idea never caught on even a little bit with the public (thanks to anitram for changing my mind about that).

 

[womanfish]

Gotta say, tonight is shaping up to be as bad for Warren as it is for Biden...

 

[Irvine511]

Shaky Bangs is not that far from overtaking Mayor Pete. Who saw that coming....
.

I did ;-)

I guess the math just didn’t work out for Andrew Yang.

 

[anitram]

I did ;-)

The pulse of cold white people, I forgot!

I think Warren is done (but won't drop out yet), Biden is done (validating my opinion that he was an utter disaster from before day 1), and anyone below them is done too.

So where do we go from here?

Bernie is getting way fewer votes than the moderates (even if you give him all of Warren's voters which I think is a mistake).

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

i was about to mention that he's currently winning by 6.5% and that there's more than two candidates running this time but i didn't realize this was the wishful thinking thread. my bad.

Yang Gang told me about Math and I was able to combine Buttigieg and Klobuchar's totals and it came out to more than 6.5%

 

[womanfish]

Shaky Bangs is not that far from overtaking Mayor Pete. Who saw that coming....

And those two poll a combined 5% with black voters in SC.

Where are those votes going to go?

Bloomberg must be loving this.

I thought it would be about a 50/50 for Amy to overtake Pete.

Now if Amy really surges and Pete finishes third. He needs to go. seriously.

But you are so right. Bloomberg is having everything fall into place. Biden super weak, Now Amy and Pete are high fiving over NH, while they are hurling toward a brick wall.

P.S. Bennett just dropped out. Those dozens of voters will really be coveted.

 

[DaveC]

Yang Gang told me about Math and I was able to combine Buttigieg and Klobuchar's totals and it came out to more than 6.5%

wow you're right it's a competitive election between several opponents. you're really hitting some home runs with these takes lately.

you literally said "bernie loses new hampshire" but if you wanna put the goalposts over there that's fine too.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

I thought it would be about a 50/50 for Amy to overtake Pete.





But you are so right. Bloomberg is having everything fall into place. Biden super weak, Now Amy and Pete are high fiving over NH, while they are hurling toward a brick wall.



P.S. Bennett just dropped out. Those dozens of voters will really be coveted.

A lot of people assumed that at some point the Republican nominees would consolidate and overtake Trump. It could have happened, easily.

It didn't.

 

[Irvine511]

Warren and Biden collapsing is still a shock, and I do take the point that Iowa and NH are completely stupid to have go first, but this also seems to have exposed the weaknesses that we all feared in their candidacies.

Still, this isn’t all bad news. Buttigieg and Klobuchar qualify as fresh, new faces, and Sanders has his people and there’s a real conversation to be had and, unlike parts of his online followers, Bernie does a fairly good job at keeping the debate between the “moderates” and himself civil and productive.

Bloombie. Who knows, we’ll see.

I’ll also say that the SC “black vote” will be as pragmatic as any other. Obama was nowhere down there until he proved that he could win. I will expect to see Amy K and Pete’s numbers down there change as the gain credibility.

 

[womanfish]

A lot of people assumed that at some point the Republican nominees would consolidate and overtake Trump. It could have happened, easily.

It didn't.

I'm not sure what you're saying... I think if Bloomberg has Amy, Pete and possibly Biden drop out by super tuesday. Bloomberg will be the beneficiary of most of their supporters. Warren is the wild card on how long she will stay in. i assume through super Tuesday. But who knows.

At that point I would say advantage Bloomberg. But again, a lot of unkowns along the way.

 

[cobl04]

So as someone from the outside looking in, it feels like Sanders has a tonne of momentum. I am hoping he's going to get the nomination. Is it a good chance?

Sadly, I do still feel that it is a formality, and Trump will be re-elected.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

I'm not sure what you're saying... I think if Bloomberg has Amy, Pete and possibly Biden drop out by super tuesday. Bloomberg will be the beneficiary of most of their supporters. Warren is the wild card on how long she will stay in. i assume through super Tuesday. But who knows.



At that point I would say advantage Bloomberg. But again, a lot of unkowns along the way.

I'm saying there is zero reason for them to drop out this early because they're not dead.

Biden? Sure. He's toast.

Buttigieg and Klobuchar have zero reason to quit now and could very easily stay in till Super Tuesday, split the moderate vote much like they did today, and hand the nomination to Sanders with a familiar sounding 30-35% ceiling.

Obviously if they all drop out it is a clear benefit for Bloomberg - just like if many of the other republican candidates had dropped out it would have benefited Ted Cruz! - but not enough did soon enough to stop the Trump Train.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

So as someone from the outside looking in, it feels like Sanders has a tonne of momentum. I am hoping he's going to get the nomination. Is it a good chance?

Sadly, I do still feel that it is a formality, and Trump will be re-elected.

I wouldn't call it momentum - he's on track to receive fewer votes than he did in 2016 in the 2nd straight state - but he's the clear leader in the clubhouse right now if only for a lack of a clear second option.

 

[womanfish]

I'm saying there is zero reason for them to drop out this early because they're not dead.

Biden? Sure. He's toast.

Buttigieg and Klobuchar have zero reason to quit now and could very easily stay in till Super Tuesday, split the moderate vote much like they did today, and hand the nomination to Sanders with a familiar sounding 30-35% ceiling.

Obviously if they all drop out it is a clear benefit for Bloomberg - just like if many of the other republican candidates had dropped out it would have benefited Ted Cruz! - but not enough did soon enough to stop the Trump Train.

I definitely agree on Pete. I mean, if he has a number 1 finish, a number 2 finish and then who knows, 4 or 5th in the next two, that's pretty good.

Amy isn't as clear to me. If she gets 3rd in one, 4th in one and 5th or 6th in the next two... That is pretty weak, and not a great electibility argument. May come down more about money for her.

And point taken on the "not soon enough" part. Bloomberg is riding a wobbly edge on how all this times out.

 

[Diemen]

You’re the moderator, go back to when Irvine said that Christians will kick a few gays , among other niceties. I shouldn’t have to remind you, but you didn’t care and don’t now when anti Christian bigotry is espoused here.



I was surprised/not surprised you didn’t ban him, anytime Irvine mentions Christians, just substitute Muslims, and see if you would step in.



Yeah, exactly.

There’s not a rolleyes emoji big enough. As for Irvine’s “anti-Christian bigotry,” you may not like what he’s saying or how he’s saying it, but as you can see by his response to this post, he can back up his criticism of some Christians (namely many - not all- but many who seem to align themselves under the evangelical Right moniker) with facts. It is a fact that many among the Christian Right have used fear mongering about homosexuality as a tool to push voter turnout. I know several people who list abortion and the “homosexual agenda” as their primary considerations when voting.

But here’s the thing - you seem to take any criticism of this specific subsection of Christianity - the loudly political Christian Right - as bigotry against all Christianity, and you falsely assume that anyone voicing these criticisms must not be Christian. As loud as they are, the Christian Right are not representative of Christianity as a whole, and there are many actively faithful Christians who are repulsed by the Christian Right’s hypocrisy and craven political opportunism.

 

[womanfish]

So as someone from the outside looking in, it feels like Sanders has a tonne of momentum. I am hoping he's going to get the nomination. Is it a good chance?

Sadly, I do still feel that it is a formality, and Trump will be re-elected.

it's hard to say. I think he has a very good chance at the nomination. But like Headache said, it's hard to call it momentum. Right now you could say that there are others with more "momentum" but not to get to sciencey, but their mass is not as large as Sanders. So their momentum won't carry them through the way that Sanders will.

To give you an example. Last time in NH, Bernie got 71% of Independents. This year, he got 25% with Pete and Amy getting about 23 a piece. So the game has changed a bit for Bernie, but he is still best placed as of now to win.

As you know, Bloomberg awaits, and that is the thing that no one knows how it will effect everything.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

Buttigieg has momentum.
Sanders has expectation.
Bloomberg has the x factor.
Biden has dick. He needs to drop out.

 

[DaveC]

There’s not a rolleyes emoji big enough. As for Irvine’s “anti-Muslim bigotry,” you may not like what he’s saying or how he’s saying it, but as you can see by his response to this post, he can back up his criticism of some Muslims (namely many - not all- but many who seem to align themselves under the Islamist moniker) with facts. It is a fact that many among the Islamists have used fear mongering about homosexuality as a tool to push voter turnout. I know several people who list abortion and the “homosexual agenda” as their primary considerations when voting.

But here’s the thing - you seem to take any criticism of this specific subsection of Islam - the loudly political Islamists - as bigotry against all Islam, and you falsely assume that anyone voicing these criticisms must not be Muslims. As loud as they are, the Islamists are not representative of Islam as a whole, and there are many actively faithful Muslims who are repulsed by the Islamists' hypocrisy and craven political opportunism.

i eagerly await my ban because that's how this place works. i'm off to a different U2 forum that you all don't know about where i plan to spend the next four years talking shit about all of you and occasionally creating obvious alters here that get banned in a week because you libs are just super mad about the election.

Spoiler

 

[anitram]

Amy isn't as clear to me. If she gets 3rd in one, 4th in one and 5th or 6th in the next two... That is pretty weak, and not a great electibility argument. May come down more about money for her. .

How she places relative to Buttigieg matters more than her absolute placement.

If she's 4th but he's 5th, little reason for her to drop out.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

The only reason for any of the top 5 to drop out at this point is either a) financial, or b) scandal.

Short of that, they're going to stay in. And that is a clear advantage for Bernie.

 

[womanfish]

How she places relative to Buttigieg matters more than her absolute placement.

If she's 4th but he's 5th, little reason for her to drop out.

But if she finishes 5th or 6th, in NV and SC. What states would she do well in on super tuesday?
Beyond that everyone keeps forgetting this is about delegates.
Right now she has... 6
She could, and most likely will, end this first run of 4 states with... 6

I'd rather have Amy than Pete. But she surged to late.

 

[cobl04]

Is he getting less votes because there's more people in the race at this time compared with 2016?

 

[womanfish]

Correction. Amy has 7, not 6

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

Is he getting less votes because there's more people in the race at this time compared with 2016?

Obviously it's all speculative... but if you look at New Hampshire, where Bernie won by a significant margin over Clinton in 2016... The moderate wing (Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Biden) took home 53% of the vote, where the progressive side (Sanders, Warren) stand at 36%. Then there's 11% split amongst Steyer, Gabbard, Yang and write ins.

Sanders beat Clinton 60 to 37 in 2016.