South Carolina Primary Predictions

[deep]

Originally posted by Irvine511
it seems important to point out that Obama himself got more votes than Huckabee and McCain *combined*.

so this means - Obama will carry SC in Nov?

or that he got Cousin Pookie and Ray Ray
FIRED UP AND READY TO GO.


McCain got more votes in 2000 than he did in 2008

[yolland]

Originally posted by deep
Also, Jackson won SC in 88 at about 50% to 25 % (sound familiar)
Dukakis -25% > became the eventual nominee.
..........................................
so this means - Obama will carry SC in Nov?

True, though Obama did draw more than 3 times as much of the SC white vote as Jackson did in '88, the year of Jackson's strongest showing there. That may well have as much to do with changing times in the South as with anything about Obama in particular, but either way it's good news for his campaign. And Clinton's finish in SC was analogous to Gore's (in '88), not Dukakis' as far as that goes.

No Democrat will carry SC in November, of course.

[deep]

One of Obama's greatest strengths is his ability to draw young people (of all races)

I think that is demonstrated in his popularity on this board


they just are not that powerful at the voting booth in General elections

[ntalwar]

Originally posted by deep


I don't know how young you are
but I was there in 84 and 88.

And I will say Jackson's address at the Democratic convention was much more inspirational than the very good speech Obama gave in 2004.


Also, Jackson won SC in 88 at about 50% to 25 % (sound familiar)
Dukakis -25% > became the eventual nominee.


One question for you

Do you think Obama will win more states in 2004 than Jackson won in 1988?

Bill was out of line to equate Obama and Jackson - obviously he's hinting at race.

And I keep an open mind as to who will win. I don't let the media decide that a certain candidate can or can't win. My own state (Va.) was a red state that is now turning into a blue state.

[yolland]

Obama actually did better with black voters age 30-59 than he did with the "youth" black vote. Obviously his impressive lead among white voters age 18-29 helped, but on the other hand they formed the smallest share of any of those race-by-age categories, and his overall share of the white vote (24%) was in fact right in line with his performance among white voters age 30-59. So, this wasn't just a "youth vote" phenomenon.

I do agree with you that some Obama supporters seem to put too much faith in the ability of young voters to carry the day for him; nonetheless, when a candidate can accomplish the feat of getting young voters to turn out for him or her in large numbers, they can still constitute a crucial voting bloc in states where multiple "base" constituencies are up for grabs. Especially since the Democratic primary sytem assigns delegates proportionately.

[deep]

Originally posted by ntalwar


Bill was out of line to equate Obama and Jackson - obviously he's hinting at race.

And I keep an open mind as to who will win. I don't let the media decide that a certain candidate can or can't win. My own state (Va.) was a red state that is now turning into a blue state.

U2dem
already said Virginia will vote GOP in Nov


and if equating Obama to Jackson is racist

then what is equating Obama to MLKjr ?
that all his supporters seem to be doing?

actually, Obama has more in common with Jackson
- if one is comparing campaigning for the Democratic nomination

if it bothers you
that may be more of a reflection about your attitude about race

[ntalwar]

The Virginia voters alone will decide who wins Virginia (unless Diebold decides differently).

And comparing 1984/1988 politics to 2008 politics makes no sense.

[deep]

Originally posted by ntalwar
The Virginia voters alone will decide who wins Virginia (unless Diebold decides differently).

nope, sorry

U2Democrat is the one to call it (period)

[maycocksean]

Originally posted by deep


actually, Obama has more in common with Jackson
- if one is comparing campaigning for the Democratic nomination

if it bothers you
that may be more of a reflection about your attitude about race

Nonsense.

The biggest difference--and the most important one here--is that Jackson wasn't and never has been able to get beyond being the "Black Candidate." Obama, I believe, has the opportunity to do that, in fact he IS doing that.

The Jackson comparison is meant (at least by the Clintons, I won't speak for your own continued comparision) to diminish the legitimacy and viability of Obama's campaign. Whether the comparison is apt or not is almost beside the point--the hope is if the comparison is made it will seem true in people's minds, and eventually become true.

[yolland]

Obama responded to the comparison on ABC's This Week today.

http://www.abcnews.go.com/print?id=4197507

GEORGE STEPHANOPOULOS: ...Before the votes were finally counted yesterday, President Clinton was asked why it was taking both Clintons to handle you in South Carolina. Here's how he responded to our David Wright.

STEPHANOPOULOS: The implication there is pretty clear: You're the Jesse Jackson of 2008.

OBAMA: Well, you know, Jesse Jackson ran historic races in 1984 and 1988, and there's no doubt that that set a precedent for African Americans running for the highest office in the land. But, you know, that was 20 years ago, George. And I think that what we saw in this election was a shift in South Carolina that I think speaks extraordinarily well, not just for folks in the South, but all across the country. I think people want change. I think they want to get beyond some of the racial politics that, you know, has been so dominant in the past. We're very encouraged as we go to the February 5th states.

STEPHANOPOULOS: Do you think President Clinton was engaging in racial politics there?

OBAMA: Well, you know, I think that that's his frame of reference was, the Jesse Jackson races. That's when, you know, he was active and involved and watching what was going to take place in South Carolina. I think that a lot of South Carolinians looked at it through a different lens...

STEPHANOPOULOS: But several in the Clinton camp say that it was your campaign that was playing the race card throughout this primary. They point to Dick Harpootlian, one of your major supporters in South Carolina, who said that the Clinton campaign was reminiscent of Lee Atwater. They point to the comments of one of your top advisers, Steve Hildebrand, who said that the Clintons have always put people in a box; [that] they look at everything through racial lines, gender lines, geographic lines; [that] they tend to segment people. They say that it was your campaign playing the race card.

OBAMA: George, I'm not going to continue sort of the tit-for-tat. I think that the results yesterday spoke for themselves, that people wanted to move beyond some of these old arguments, and they want to look forward to figure out how we pull the country together and move forward, and that's what we're going to do during the remainder of this campaign.
.........................................................................
STEPHANOPOULOS: You also said that you're up against the idea that it's acceptable to say anything or do anything. Is that what you think the Clintons were doing in South Carolina? And you also used the word demonize there. Were they trying to demonize you?

OBAMA: No, I don't think they were trying to demonize me, but I do think that there is a certain brand of politics that we've become accustomed to, and that the Republican Party had perfected and was often directed against the Clintons, but that all of us had become complicit in, where we basically think anything is fair game.

[maycocksean]

Originally posted by yolland
Obama responded to the comparison on ABC's This Week today.

http://www.abcnews.go.com/print?id=4197507

STEPHANOPOULOS: The implication there is pretty clear: You're the Jesse Jackson of 2008.

OBAMA: Well, you know, Jesse Jackson ran historic races in 1984 and 1988, and there's no doubt that that set a precedent for African Americans running for the highest office in the land. But, you know, that was 20 years ago, George. And I think that what we saw in this election was a shift in South Carolina that I think speaks extraordinarily well, not just for folks in the South, but all across the country. I think people want change. I think they want to get beyond some of the racial politics that, you know, has been so dominant in the past. We're very encouraged as we go to the February 5th states.

STEPHANOPOULOS: Do you think President Clinton was engaging in racial politics there?

OBAMA: Well, you know, I think that that's his frame of reference was, the Jesse Jackson races. That's when, you know, he was active and involved and watching what was going to take place in South Carolina. I think that a lot of South Carolinians looked at it through a different lens...

STEPHANOPOULOS: But several in the Clinton camp say that it was your campaign that was playing the race card throughout this primary. They point to Dick Harpootlian, one of your major supporters in South Carolina, who said that the Clinton campaign was reminiscent of Lee Atwater. They point to the comments of one of your top advisers, Steve Hildebrand, who said that the Clintons have always put people in a box; [that] they look at everything through racial lines, gender lines, geographic lines; [that] they tend to segment people. They say that it was your campaign playing the race card.

OBAMA: George, I'm not going to continue sort of the tit-for-tat. I think that the results yesterday spoke for themselves, that people wanted to move beyond some of these old arguments, and they want to look forward to figure out how we pull the country together and move forward, and that's what we're going to do during the remainder of this campaign.
.........................................................................
STEPHANOPOULOS: You also said that you're up against the idea that it's acceptable to say anything or do anything. Is that what you think the Clintons were doing in South Carolina? And you also used the word demonize there. Were they trying to demonize you?

OBAMA: No, I don't think they were trying to demonize me, but I do think that there is a certain brand of politics that we've become accustomed to, and that the Republican Party had perfected and was often directed against the Clintons, but that all of us had become complicit in, where we basically think anything is fair game.

[/QUOTE]

Stephanopoulos trying to get him to say SOMETHING to keep that "tit for tat" battle going and Obama won't cooperate.

[MrsSpringsteen]

Yes the media is extremely tiresome with that whole thing -hopefully most voters can see that it is the media perpetuating it. Senator Obama increases my admiration for him by refusing to go along with it. That being said Bill Clinton should still shut up and stick to talking about the positives about his wife.

[MrsSpringsteen]

ABC News' Rick Klein Reports: Rev. Al Sharpton on Monday weighed in on the raging debate inside the Democratic Party over former President Bill Clinton's advocacy on behalf of his wife's campaign, with two choice words for the former president: "Shut up."

On ABC's "The View," Sharpton said voters are hearing "race charges, race-tinged rhetoric" in the Democratic primary campaign, and called on the former president to cease.

"I think it's time for him to just be quiet," said Sharpton, who was a Democratic presidential candidate in 2004. "I think it's time for him to stop. As one of the most outspoken people in America, there's a time to shut up, and I think that time has come."

Sharpton didn't say which comments in particular bothered him. But many Democrats were particularly upset that the former president made an explicit comparison of Obama's campaign to Jesse Jackson's victories in South Carolina in 1984 and 1988, in an apparent attempt to explain why his wife didn't win the South Carolina primary on Saturday.

For his part, Jackson told The New York Times that he wasn't bothered by the comparison. Still, he told the newspaper that he had spoken to both Obama and President Clinton over the weekend, and told both to "take it to a higher ground."