Ohio predictions

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U2isthebest said:
I'm just wondering what the situations in Michigan and Florida's primary voting have to do with the general election since they aren't even counting towards the nomination at this point.

If you favor Obama, you're going to make the Democrats lose.

I'm guessing that's his point.
 
LarryMullen's_POPAngel said:


You could have voted "undecided", like many other Democrats or Independents. That's what I did, despite knowing that it was a futile effort and Hillary would come out the winner.

I would like Michigan to hold another primary but, at this point, I'm not holding my breath. We (stupidly) broke rules. :shrug:

That's true, but my thinking at the time was that Hillary would win as you said, and that the votes wouldn't mean anything come nomination time.
 
LarryMullen's_POPAngel said:
You could have voted "undecided", like many other Democrats or Independents. That's what I did

there was a huge effort to do this

many believed that "undecided" would come in ahead of Hillary

thus giving her a severe set back.
 
Dreadsox said:
Time will tell!!!!!

Certainly, some major happening could swing PA, since it is still a "purple" state, but barring any huge surprises, I'm calling PA for the Democractic candidate in November.
 
phillyfan26 said:


PA will go Democratic. That I can assure you.

No one should take Pennsylvania for granted. It has been a battleground state the past two elections and was only won by Kerry by 2 percentage points in 2004. It is indeed in play, and McCain may be able to devote more time and money there than past Republicans have if his current 15 point lead in Florida is maintained.

Wisconsin and Oregon are other Blue states that are vulnerable based on the latest polling.
 
LarryMullen's_POPAngel said:


Yeah - look how wonderfully that turned out. :happy:

Stupid Michigan. :mad:

if people could set aside their Obama bias

they would have to accept that the voters in both Mich and Florida chose Hillary


just like the voters in South Carolina and Vermont chose Obama
 
Was Obama on the ballot in those states, deep?

Did Obama campaign in those states, deep?
 
Latest poll in Massachusetts by Survey USA has Obama only up by 2 percent over McCain, 48% to 46%. But if Hillary is the nominee, she beats McCain by 9 points, 52% to 43%. I highly doubt that McCain could win the most heavily Democratic state in the country, but the polling is at least suggestive that McCain has strong pull in Blue states that past Republican candidates have not had.
 
phillyfan26 said:
Was Obama on the ballot in those states, deep?

Did Obama campaign in those states, deep?

Clinton didn't campaign there either, though.

I have to agree with deep that Clinton might actually be stronger in the three traditional battleground states that usually decide elections - Florida, Ohio, and PA. However, others have a point that Obama might be able to break through in states traditionally won by Republicans. The question is, which states would those be, and how many electoral votes would they have compared to OH, FL, and PA?
 
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phillyfan26 said:
Was Obama on the ballot in those states, deep?

Did Obama campaign in those states, deep?

Florida - yes !


Florida - yes !

he ran a T V ad in Florida that was against the rules

so when the people of Florida (perhaps the most important swing state) voted
Obama was not at any disadvantage.
 
phillyfan26 said:
Was Obama on the ballot in those states, deep?

Did Obama campaign in those states, deep?

Exactly. As much as I desperately hope Obama is the Democratic nominee, if the situation was reversed and he had been on the ballot here and in Florida, I would still say the votes should not not count. Regardless of who the candidate in question is, it's not fair to them or to the voters
 
Erm, you guys do realize that all the candidates WERE on the ballot in Florida, right?
 
deep said:


if people could set aside their Obama bias

they would have to accept that the voters in both Mich and Florida chose Hillary


just like the voters in South Carolina and Vermont chose Obama

Your obsession with pointing out this "bias" is quite unflattering.
 
phillyfan26 said:
Was Obama on the ballot in those states, deep?

Did Obama campaign in those states, deep?

He was on the ballot in Florida picking up only 33% of the vote.
 
yolland said:
Erm, you guys do realize that all the candidates WERE on the ballot in Florida, right?

I knew they all weren't in Michigan, I wasn't sure about Florida. I just knew that the votes of both states weren't going to count for the nomination.
 
U2isthebest said:


Exactly. As much as I desperately hope Obama is the Democratic nominee, if the situation was reversed and he had been on the ballot here and in Florida, I would still say the votes should not not count. Regardless of who the candidate in question is, it's not fair to them or to the voters

Florida

and
Mich

are very different

there is a reasonable case for a do over in Mich


there is also a case to be made for seating the Florida delegation as they
both were on the ballot

and both did not campaign
(except Obama ran one ad, that his people claim was a national buy. they did stop it in Florida, after one day)
 
One national TV ad that happened to cross the Florida TV space doesn't count as campaigning.

So, Obama was on the ballot in Florida, not in Michigan, and campaigned in neither.

In both cases, completely different story if Obama and Clinton campaigned.
 
Diemen said:
Your obsession with pointing out this "bias" is quite unflattering.

what would you call it when his supporters

are saying he only lost in Florida because he was not on the ballot


when he was?

and even ran an ad?
 
phanan said:


Clinton didn't campaign there either, though.

I have to agree with deep that Clinton might actually be stronger in the three traditional battleground states that usually decide elections - Florida, Ohio, and PA. However, others have a point that Obama might be able to break through in states traditionally won by Republicans. The question is, which states would those be, and how many electoral votes would they have compared to OH, FL, and PA?

I don't see Obama winning any non-battleground states, but he had the lead in the following RED battleground states:

Nevada
New Mexico
Colorado
Missouri
Iowa

He does have a 3 point lead in Ohio in the latest poll, but has been behind in most of the polls before that and does not do nearly as well as Hillary does.

The problem is that winning those 5 states won't matter if the Republicans hold Ohio, Florida, and pick up Pennsylvania.

If either side were to pick up traditional Blue or Red states the election would turn into a classic landslide.
 
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