Ohio predictions

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With 19% in, she has a 20 point lead. I'd say it's a no brainer at this stage.

Although, even though she's within 7 of him in Texas, I don't think she'll pull that one off.

Winning Rhode Island was a mild surprise, though. Now she'll be able to claim half the states tonight, which means we march on to Pennsylvania.

And if anyone remembers what happened in PA back in 1980, prepare for this to go down to the wire.
 
Irvine511 said:
i wonder how many Republicans are voting HRC in OH.

since you are asking

I am fairly confident that many more GOPers have voted for Obama in these primaries than have voted for Hillary


and they will not vote Democratic in Nov.
 
deep said:


Where does she stand when the delegates from Mich and Florida are added in?

They haven't been at this point, nor should they be. We (Michigan) and Florida broke specific party rules and we should live with the consequences. And yes, I would be saying this if Obama had been the candidate on the ballots here and in FL, instead of Hillary.
 
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namkcuR said:
Deep, you are just simply seeing things the way you want to see them. Your claim that Obama can't win the general election is just WRONG.

I mean, a LARGE number of white REPUBLICANS in Texas are saying they would vote for Obama over McCain. Do you not think it would be HUGE if we could take Texas in the general? Not to mention the fact that McCain does not have a whole lot of support in the bible belt, an area that is usually all red but because of McCain's weakness there and Obama's crossover popularity would give Obama a real opening at taking some of its states.

If these things happen, Obama could be in a position where for the first time in at LEAST a decade, the swing states might not be the be-all end-all deciders that they've been in recent years.

Obama is not going to win Texas in the general, although he might do better than previous Democratic candidates. If McCain or any Republican candidate were unable to win Texas, the general election would be one of the greatest landslides in US history. Its unlikely that McCain would lose any of the states that were not battleground states in the previous two elections.

For the general election these are the states you need to think about:

Nevada
Missouri
Iowa
Colorado
New Mexico
Ohio
Florida

Pennsylvania
Michigan
Winsconsin
New Hampshire
Oregon
Minnesota

Obama is doing well in these states except 3 of them, Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. All McCain would have to do is win those three and the election would go to McCain. McCain is currently slightly ahead in Pennsylvania, slightly behind in Ohio, and has opened up a 15 point lead on Obama in Florida.

Whats interesting is that Hillary Clinton does better than Obama against McCain in these particular states, states that the Republicans will likely have to win in order to win in November.
 
Irvine511 said:
i wonder how many Republicans are voting HRC in OH.

Hopefully not many since Hillary has a 10 point lead on McCain there, while Obama has been behind McCain recently except for the latest poll which has him up by 3. If Ohio is the deciding state again, right now it would be better for McCain to face Obama.
 
U2isthebest said:


They haven't been at this point, nor should they be. We (Michigan) and Florida broke specific party rules and we should live with the consequences. And yes, I would be saying this if Obama had been the candidate on the ballots here and in FL, instead of Hillary.

Do you think the people in those states should have the option of holding another primary?
 
Strongbow said:





Obama is doing well in these states except 3 of them, Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. All McCain would have to do is win those three and the election would go to McCain. McCain is currently slightly ahead in Pennsylvania, slightly behind in Ohio, and has opened up a 15 point lead on Obama in Florida.

Whats interesting is that Hillary Clinton does better than Obama against McCain in these particular states, states that the Republicans will likely have to win in order to win in November.

this is exactally how I have been seeing it all along

yes Obama can move a few per cent in the Red states

these are states the go 65 - 35 or 62 - 38

so 5 points wont matter

it really only comes down to about 3 states

and in those 3 states
Hillary is much stronger.
 
deep said:


since you are asking

I am fairly confident that many more GOPers have voted for Obama in these primaries than have voted for Hillary


and they will not vote Democratic in Nov.



i take the opposite view.

those Republicans who have been voting Obama, might well choose him over McCain in the general. they would not choose HRC.

those who are now voting HRC, are doing so in order to help McCain by giving him the weaker opponent.
 
U2isthebest said:
They haven't been at this point, nor should they be. We (Michigan) and Florida broke specific party rules and we should live with the consequences. And yes, I would be saying this if Obama had been the candidate on the ballots here and in FL, instead of Hillary.

so, just ceed those two states to McCain

the GOP thanks you.
 
phanan said:


Do you think the people in those states should have the option of holding another primary?

I'm torn. Since I live in Michigan, I would love to able to vote for Obama and actually have my vote count. However we did go against a party rule, one that wasn't even that unfair or illogical. If we could re-do the primary than yes, I would say I'd love to see that happen here and in Florida. However, if they just want to take the states as they stand now, that would be completely unfair.
 
deep said:


this is exactally how I have been seeing it all along

yes Obama can move a few per cent in the Red states

these are states the go 65 - 35 or 62 - 38

so 5 points wont matter

it really only comes down to about 3 states

and in those 3 states
Hillary is much stronger.

I disagree. I think there are states that went red last time that are close enough for Obama to have a shot in.
 
U2isthebest said:

Obama can't win. Three states. "Hope! Change!" No substance. What was Obama thinking? Florida. Ohio. Florida. Ohio.

Or something.
 
Any Republican that votes for Obama in the general, is not a Republican.....

:madspit:
 
phillyfan26 said:


I disagree. I think there are states that went red last time that are close enough for Obama to have a shot in.

Thats correct at the moment, there are about 5 or 6 of them. But provided McCain keeps Florida(15 point lead at the moment) and Ohio(behind by 3 at the moment), and picks up Pennsylvania(ahead by 1 at the moment), the loss of those 5 red states won't matter.
 
Dreadsox said:
Any Republican that votes for Obama in the general, is not a Republican.....

:madspit:



you've heard of Reagan Democrats ... though, given the nastiness of the Clinton campaign, they might just have damaged the eventual nominee enough that McCain might actually have a chance in November.

way to go, Bill and Hill.

it's always, always about you.
 
phillyfan26 said:


Obama can't win. Three states. "Hope! Change!" No substance. What was Obama thinking? Florida. Ohio. Florida. Ohio.

Or something.

I'm just wondering what the situations in Michigan and Florida's primary voting have to do with the general election since they aren't even counting towards the nomination at this point.
 
Strongbow said:


Thats correct at the moment, there are about 5 or 6 of them. But provided McCain keeps Florida(15 point lead at the moment) and Ohio(behind by 3 at the moment), and picks up Pennsylvania(ahead by 1 at the moment), the loss of those 5 red states won't matter.

PA will go Democratic. That I can assure you.
 
U2isthebest said:


No I didn't. Obama wasn't on the ballot here.

You could have voted "undecided", like many other Democrats or Independents. That's what I did, despite knowing that it was a futile effort and Hillary would come out the winner.

I would like Michigan to hold another primary but, at this point, I'm not holding my breath. We (stupidly) broke rules. :shrug:
 
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