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Old 01-03-2008, 11:04 PM   #261
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Originally posted by Irvine511




no, it isn't. more people identify as Democrats than Republicans, and independents have moved away from the Republicans in droves.

it's the Republicans who've been pandering most to their base -- all this "brown peril" illegal immigrant nativism -- and the Democrats who have all run centrist, national campaigns up to this point.
To some degree that is true, but your still going to see a change in how the nominee for the Democrats runs in the general election compared to the primaries.

If the country is no longer conservative or as conservative as it was in the 1990s, John McCain would not be beating all three Democratic candidates in the latest polls. Over the last 10 Presidential elections, the Democrats have only won 3, and only achieved a 50% majority in one of those elections. The two victories by Clinton showed him moving to the right in order to survive. The largest turnout ever in this country's history since 18-20 year olds got the right to vote was the 2004 election and George Bush solidly won that election. The 2006 election may have indicated big changes, but the turnout for that election was much lower than in 2004, so will see what happens in 2008.

I still think Republicans have an uphill battle this year, but its not because the electorate has radically changed their political views and party membership since 2004. No matter what the political situation, since World War II, a party in the White House for two consecutive terms has only won a third time in a row once.
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Old 01-03-2008, 11:05 PM   #262
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Tell me honestly why you think this is?

Because I've always been curious when someone says this, and sense you are a young educated Republican on the verge of his first real vote, why do you think this is?
According to a 2005 Harris poll, Democrats outnumber Republicans 34%-31%. Conservatives outnumber liberals 36-18, with moderates at 41.

http://www.harrisinteractive.com/har...ex.asp?PID=548

I guess my young mind would answer that most Americans support smaller taxes, a strong defense and traditional values which at times emphasize religion. And with some 90% of Americans being religious, this makes sense.

I don't know, I really don't have a great answer. Maybe a lot of people view "liberal" as a scary word being more and more associated with irresponsible outlets and polarizing people like Michael Moore and MoveOn.
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Old 01-03-2008, 11:05 PM   #263
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I am thinking Lincoln, Truman, W, Guiliani get a lot of credit for just being at the helm what disasters hits.

When the Country survives, and recovers and gets better, these leaders are elevated beyond what they deserve.
I hear you but I would question whether that was the case with Lincoln (the others, I probably wouldn't argue with). The Civil War was far more than a disaster that "hit." The generals he chose (granted he had to go through a few--but he went through them), the Emancipation Proclamation, his willingness to follow through on a war that was often quite unpopular, and who knows how things might have been different had he lived and been able to manage the Reconstruction in the manner he wanted to. I don't think Lincoln was lucky. Those were rare times and fortunately we had someone worthy to the task.

My argument is simply this--if a man of little "experience" could do his job well in perhaps the most crucial point in our nations history, how can we say that a similar person can't do the same now.
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Old 01-03-2008, 11:08 PM   #264
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national polls right now mean NOTHING.

Rudy is leading in national polls. go figure.

and how did the 18-20 year olds vote? i'll give you a hint -- not Republican. and a majority of them support such "liberal" things like marriage equality. whites are going to continue to decline in population, and the Republicans have always hated blacks and have just done huge damage to whatever inroads Bush may have made with Latinos.

Clinton moving to the right was moving to the center. you're going to see the Republican nominee moving to the center. the election is won from the center.

ask yourself why Congress has been overwhelmingly Democratic since WW2.
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Old 01-03-2008, 11:09 PM   #265
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Originally posted by 2861U2


According to a 2005 Harris poll, Democrats outnumber Republicans 34%-31%. Conservatives outnumber liberals 36-18, with moderates at 41.


Democrat or Republican is quantifiable identity.

"liberal" or "conservative" is not. and one thing that has been done very, very well by the right since the 1960s is to demonize the word "liberal."

i don't call myself a liberal. i'm a progressive.
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Old 01-03-2008, 11:11 PM   #266
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My argument is simply this--if a man of little "experience" could do his job well in perhaps the most crucial point in our nations history, how can we say that a similar person can't do the same now.
I would reply by saying just because it worked 150 years ago, we should take a risk and hope Obama can do the same? Lincoln was a great man with great skill. I don't see Lincoln in Obama. Why not take more of a safer road and elect someone who has lived through war and has more experience and knowledge?
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Old 01-03-2008, 11:11 PM   #267
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God, I could not be happier with the speech Obama made. I was struck by his poise - he certainly seems more of a statesman than any of the other candidates.
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Old 01-03-2008, 11:12 PM   #268
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Originally posted by 2861U2


I would reply by saying just because it worked 150 years ago, we should take a risk and hope Obama can do the same? Lincoln was a great man with great skill. I don't see that in Obama. Why not take more of a safer road and elect someone who has lived through war and has more experience and knowledge?


who had more "experience" and "knowledge" than Cheney and Rumsfeld?
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Old 01-03-2008, 11:12 PM   #269
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Quote:
Originally posted by Irvine511
national polls right now mean NOTHING.
Well, I wouldn't say that. How else would you explain an incompetent boob like Dubya being elected twice in a row in the Dems have such a strong backing in this country? (EDIT: Sorry, I thought you were talking to 2861U2 there, but you quoted his post later )

However, in 10-20 years, I think the US will be predominately liberal, as many of those 18-20 year olds you mentioned will have grown up and will probably remain as they are politically, and they will influence their children, and so on.
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Old 01-03-2008, 11:13 PM   #270
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Originally posted by maycocksean

Lincoln himself bestowed that honor on Harriet Beecher Stowe, the author of Uncle Tom's Cabin.

Yes, that's right before Uncle Tom's Cabin all clear thinking people just believed Negroes workers were appreciative of the plantation owners.

These plantation owners gave them an opportunity to improve their standard of loving by being around the white folks.


In all seriousness, I am embarrassed for my country. That people turned a blind eye to the horrors of slavery for as long as they did.

Sure Stowe's book may have been a turning point.

I guess Rosa Parks was the first Black person to be told to give her seat to a white person?

If I watch a fellow human being being beaten to death by his slave owning master. I hope I would risk my life to save him.
Not read a book.
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Old 01-03-2008, 11:14 PM   #271
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Originally posted by LemonMelon


Well, I wouldn't say that. How else would you explain an incompetent boob like Dubya being elected twice in a row in the Dems have such a strong backing in this country?
The Supreme Court stated that it would irreparably damage candidate Bush to keep counting the votes in Florida so that explains #1.

#2 is a mix of Kerry not being ideal and Bush shamelessly frightening your population into submission.

This is all based on the electoral college. Regardless of the candidates in November, you're maybe going to look at a half a dozen states. The other 40+ will go the way they always do. National polls really mean nothing.
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Old 01-03-2008, 11:15 PM   #272
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Quote:
Originally posted by Irvine511
national polls right now mean NOTHING.

In a few weeks
very good chance
Iowa means NOTHING.
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Old 01-03-2008, 11:15 PM   #273
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Originally posted by Irvine511


the Republicans have always hated blacks
Come on Irvine, don't say that when it is blatantly false. You're smarter than that. I could reply with the whole "Democrats hate so-and-so" argument if I wanted, but I'd rather not.
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Old 01-03-2008, 11:16 PM   #274
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Quote:
Originally posted by LemonMelon


Well, I wouldn't say that. How else would you explain an incompetent boob like Dubya being elected twice in a row in the Dems have such a strong backing in this country?


i'm talking specifically about the 2008 elections -- it really hasn't started yet and national polls do more to indicate name recognition than anything else. why is Rudy winning nationally? why did Hillary have a double digit lead over Obama as of yesterday?


Quote:
However, in 10-20 years, I think the US will be predominately liberal, as many of those 18-20 year olds you mentioned will have grown up and will probably remain as they are politically, and they will influence their children, and so on.
everything is trending blue. look at Virginia. look at the mountain West. yes, Americans will probably retain their "conservative" values of lower taxes, smaller government, and general sense of patriotism and righteousness at the core of whatever might be considered American "ideals." conservatives have co-opted these things, and done so quite well.

but as social issues go, as universal health care goes, as distrust of the need for American military intervention in whatever foreign hotspot goes, all is trending to the Left.
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Old 01-03-2008, 11:17 PM   #275
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Originally posted by 2861U2


Come on Irvine, don't say that when it is blatantly false. You're smarter than that. I could reply with the whole "Democrats hate so-and-so" argument if I wanted, but I'd rather not.


you've heard of the Southern Strategy, yes?

Willie Horton?

Welfare Queens?

okay, they don't "hate" blacks. they demonize them in order to get votes from voters who hate blacks.
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Old 01-03-2008, 11:18 PM   #276
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Lincoln was a great man with great skill. I don't see that in Obama.
Many people didn't see that in Lincoln either. They thought him unsophisticated, unintelligent, a country rube completely unsuited for high office--he wasn't even particularly compellling as a public speaker by their standards (The Gettysburg Address was not well reviewed. Considered too short for one thing.). He was often compared to an ape.

The key is not just--this guy has held office for a bunch of years, this guy's run a state (lot of good that did us with Bush), or this persons been around the Washington beltway a time or two--it's how does this person think? How does this person approach the issues? Are they business as usual or are they thinking differently. I think Obama has what it takes to be a great leader and a great president--if he has the guts to stick to who he is and not become watered down by the process of getting there.
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Old 01-03-2008, 11:18 PM   #277
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Originally posted by deep




Sure Stowe's book may have been a turning point.


it was the "brokeback mountain" of it's time.

an emotional argument, not a political one.
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Old 01-03-2008, 11:19 PM   #278
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Originally posted by deep


In a few weeks
very good chance
Iowa means NOTHING.


that could well be true.

but can't you, passionate anti-racist that you are, find something good about a "clean, articulate" black man winning a 95% white state?
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Old 01-03-2008, 11:20 PM   #279
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Originally posted by Irvine511


i'm talking specifically about the 2008 elections
Yeah, sorry, I figured that out and edited my post accordingly. And you're right. At this point, national polls are nothing but name recognition and are a general popularity contest. This thing is far from over; many skeletons left to drag out of the closet, botched debates, and general mudslinging left to come.
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Old 01-03-2008, 11:22 PM   #280
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If I watch a fellow human being being beaten to death by his slave owning master. I hope I would risk my life to save him.
Not read a book.
But what's your point about John Brown making more of a difference than Lincoln?
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