2016 US Presidential Election Thread Part VI

[bobsaget77]

Originally Posted by BEAL

Only in your dreams.

I despise Trump, but at some point reality has to set in. People have doubted him for months and months and months, but he keeps winning.
Here's what I want the republicans to do...
Rubio drops out, supports Cruz and becomes his VP. Kasich stays in long enough to beat Trump in Ohio. Carson drops out. Cruz vs Trump, Cruz wins.
Cruz/Rubio ticket in the general. Obviously, I'm the only Cruz supporter on FYM so you would all hate that. But that would be my dream scenario.


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[BVS]

Originally Posted by bobsaget77

and 15-20% of democrats flipping to Trump and this is looking real, folks.


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You MIGHT be right about republicans, but what would make anyone think he's getting any Democrat votes? Especially 15%


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[bobsaget77]

Originally Posted by BVS

You MIGHT be right about republicans, but what would make anyone think he's getting any Democrat votes? Especially 15%


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You've been wrong about Trump since day 1. You doubting him is basically a guarantee it will happen.


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[BigMacPhisto]

It's actually fairly easy to stop Trump. Here's the idea I came up with:

If you're Kasich and Cruz, you tell all of your voters in Florida to support Rubio. Kasich and Cruz can't possibly win that state and it's a winner-take-all primary so they wouldn't be getting any delegates for third or fourth place anyway.

If you're Rubio and Cruz, you tell all of your voters in Ohio to support Kasich. Rubio and Cruz can't possibly win that state and it's a winner-take-all primary so they wouldn't be getting any delegates for third or fourth place anyway.


Trump walking away with zero delegates from Ohio and Florida would make his chances of winning the nomination before the convention basically impossible. Cruz and Rubio benefit as they can't possibly surpass Trump in delegates or eventually become the nominee without stopping Trump right now. Kasich benefits by being able to stop Trump and likely open things up for a contested convention where he can argue for the nomination or a VP slot.

Of course, they aren't strategically competent enough to agree to this...and even if they were, their egos would just get in the way.


Meanwhile, Trump actually has only received 34.2% of the vote so far, so his ceiling of 35% has in fact been correct. He really isn't that far ahead of Cruz (28.1%), nor is Rubio really trailing by that much (he's at 21.7% of the vote) and both of those candidates tend to be more people's second choices and get a much bigger boost than Trump in the days before a given state tends to vote.

The real reason Trump is dominating is because of some winner-take-all scenarios in a few states along with states that require a threshold in order to receive delegates. So that allows him to end up with like half the delegates despite receiving barely a third of the vote.

Can Republicans Still Take The Nomination Away From Trump? | FiveThirtyEight

[BigMacPhisto]

Originally Posted by Irvine511

2. the failure of Rubio. i had thought that he was going to become the anti-Drumpf, and that the establishment's estimation of him -- young, attractive, non-threatening ethnic, generally good on his feet, excellent ability to memorize and repurpose empty soundbytes -- was going to appeal to the party. but it turns out that the old, white, angry GOP base doesn't seem to like young, smooth-talkin' Hispanics. i guess i shouldn't be surprised.

Rubio's New Hampshire robot moment is going to go down as the worst mistake in the history of the primaries. He was surging like crazy there and could have conceivably even defeated Trump. Instead, he committed a major sin with that repetitious brain-dead nonsense and that rightfully cost him a ton of voters in New Hampshire and across the country.

Had he ended up with a great night at that debate, there's no doubt in my mind that he could have accomplished a surge in the rest of the country and won this thing rather easily. Now, it's pretty unlikely.

I do expect him to end up doing far better than Cruz by the end of this...he's got all that establishment support and a much better calendar of states coming up.

[BVS]

Originally Posted by bobsaget77

You've been wrong about Trump since day 1. You doubting him is basically a guarantee it will happen.


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How have I been wrong about Trump?


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[ntalwar]

Originally Posted by bobsaget77

They will.
If Trump wins the nomination, Republicans will get over it and vote for Trump because (a) they all hate Hillary and (b) he's no longer attacking their candidate. 5-6 months of just Trump vs. Hillary will cause Trump's #'s with Republicans to go way up, even if they don't love him.
Republicans show up, a good VP pick, and 15-20% of democrats flipping to Trump and this is looking real, folks.

Which blue states from 2012 would switch in order to enable that? I don't see it happening.

[Headache in a Suitcase]

Originally Posted by bobsaget77

They will.
If Trump wins the nomination, Republicans will get over it and vote for Trump because (a) they all hate Hillary and (b) he's no longer attacking their candidate. 5-6 months of just Trump vs. Hillary will cause Trump's #'s with Republicans to go way up, even if they don't love him.
Republicans show up, a good VP pick, and 15-20% of democrats flipping to Trump and this is looking real, folks.


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There's not a chance of 15-20% of democrats jumping to Trump.

Not. A. Chance.

His chances in a general election lie in the democrats not showing up to the polls in the same numbers as they have been for the Republicans; that he flips some swing states on turnout and turnout alone and pulls out a squeaker.

This is a real possibility at this point. Thanks, Republicans.

[LuckyNumber7]

Yeah, the only chance I see with a republican winning the election is if democrat voters have gotten too complacent. And, if history shows, third terms for parties tend to make the base complacent.

However, Trump will light a fire under their ass, against him.

[Mack_Again]

what kind of sane Democrats will vote for Donald Drumpf?

[Diemen]

Originally Posted by bobsaget77

I despise Trump, but at some point reality has to set in. People have doubted him for months and months and months, but he keeps winning.
Here's what I want the republicans to do...
Rubio drops out, supports Cruz and becomes his VP. Kasich stays in long enough to beat Trump in Ohio. Carson drops out. Cruz vs Trump, Cruz wins.
Cruz/Rubio ticket in the general. Obviously, I'm the only Cruz supporter on FYM so you would all hate that. But that would be my dream scenario.

If your dream scenario doesn't work out and Trump is indeed the nominee, are you going to vote for him?

[PhilsFan]

I think anyone pretending they know how this will play out at this point is kidding themselves. We're no longer dealing with a situation that has a historical comparison. And plenty of people are going to claim they knew it the whole time if their prediction ends up being correct, but they're full of it. There is no script here. It's going to get weird.

[LuckyNumber7]

Originally Posted by PhilsFan

I think anyone pretending they know how this will play out at this point is kidding themselves. We're no longer dealing with a situation that has a historical comparison. And plenty of people are going to claim they knew it the whole time if their prediction ends up being correct, but they're full of it. There is no script here. It's going to get weird.

Remember in 2012 when you barked at me for voting third party, claiming it was "the most important election of our lifetime?"

See, now I think it's fair this time 'round to bark at someone who isn't willing to vote against Mein Drumpf.

[Mack_Again]

Originally Posted by PhilsFan

I think anyone pretending they know how this will play out at this point is kidding themselves. We're no longer dealing with a situation that has a historical comparison. And plenty of people are going to claim they knew it the whole time if their prediction ends up being correct, but they're full of it. There is no script here. It's going to get weird.

so.........Bernie has chance?

but seriously though, this Bernie/Clinton race is going different direction than I anticipated.

[BigMacPhisto]

Sanders' campaign effectively ended right around the time of Nevada when Super Tuesday state polls started coming out fairly often. It was clear that Sanders was going to do a lot worse than expected in those states (which already heavily favored Clinton).

In actuality, it was all over before it began. Black voters see Clinton as the continuation of Obama's legacy and clearly aren't willing to budge. Clinton gets dictator-type numbers with older blacks. Sanders never had a chance to change these people's minds.

With the extremely relevant issues he tackles, new voters he brings to the table and his truly progressive positions, Sanders has every reason to stay in the race until the convention. Not only will it help the Democratic Party in November (and shift their platform further left), but he can then have a case to be their fall-back option if Clinton has a major health scare or ends up being indicted. Having like 40% of the pledged delegates would make him a likely winner real quick at a contested convention.

[Mack_Again]

oh here's something that wouldn't surprise us: Carson: 'I do not see a political path forward' after Super Tuesday results | US news | The Guardian


but it's so sad that Clinton's appeal to black voters is so superficial and shallow, though.

[Mack_Again]

so nobody here talking about commotion Bill caused in Massachusetts in the polling station?

[BVS]

Originally Posted by BigMacPhisto

Clinton gets dictator-type numbers with older blacks. Sanders never had a chance to change these people's minds.

wow



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[bobsaget77]

Originally Posted by Diemen

If your dream scenario doesn't work out and Trump is indeed the nominee, are you going to vote for him?

Right now, no. I don't know where things would stand 8 months from now. But if I the election were held today and Trump was the nominee, I would vote for Gary Johnson on the Libertarian ballot. I wish Biden would have ran for the DEM nominee. I wouldn't vote for him, but I could most definitely stomach him more than Hillary.


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[LuckyNumber7]

Originally Posted by Mack_Again

so nobody here talking about commotion Bill caused in Massachusetts in the polling station?

- the Sanders campaign doesn't want to be whiners
- the Clinton campaign has no reason to talk about it
- the media clearly doesn't want to support the idea of dethroning Clinton
- the Republicans clearly want to face her, not Sanders

Nobody cares. He got away with whatever illegal shit he did.