NFL 2009-2010: Part The Second

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Got Philk? said:
Sure...I guess going 70 yards is the same as going 30. Certainly there isn't a 40 yard difference...
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The error is not in insisting that a 70-yard drive is more difficult than a 30-yard drive (because it certainly is). The error is that you are throwing out a glib statement that implicitly assumes that Manning is getting the ball for free at the 30-yard line when Belichick goes for it. I am sure that you recognize that when Belichick goes for it, the Colts D has to make a difficult play to get the ball back, one that they pull off perhaps 40% of the time, whereas by punting Manning is getting the ball essentially for free at 70 yards.
 
Saying that Belichick was arrogant for doing this is so ridiculous. Let's review boys and girls...

Manning had just gone two long drives in that same quarter for touchdowns, both around two minutes each. Is it really that far fetched to think he doesn't do it again? No.

And on top of that, those were drives that were standard three down drives. If the Patriots punted, Manning would have been charging down the field with FOUR DOWNS each time - the Colts certainly aren't going to punt at that point, because they can't.

So if the Patriots defense couldn't stop Manning on the previous two possessions, what makes you think they would've stopped him on the last one when he would've had FOUR CHANCES each time to make a first down, as opposed to just three?

Is is really that complicated? The chances of the Patriots converting that 4th down, with a future Hall Of Fame QB at the helm, were BETTER than stopping the Colts (and their own future Hall Of Fame QB) on that last drive.

Some people (not all I stress, just a select few) here hate Belichick, which is fine. But don't let your dislike of the man cloud your judgement.

It's funny - Headache mentioned earlier that if it had been Mangini who did this, he would've been universally ripped. I contend that because it is Belichick, and because of his history and persona, that he's actually taking MORE heat than your average coach would.

Hilarious, yet predictable.
 
One thing that's not getting mentioned is that Manning had some help on one those two late drives, did he not? Wasn't there a big pass interference penalty?

I don't know, I've gone back and forth on this but ultimately I think you need to make Manning and the Colts earn that comeback win. Who knows what can happen when you're desperately driving down the field in under two minutes? Manning wasn't in top form and an interception is certainly possible.
 
lazarus said:
One thing that's not getting mentioned is that Manning had some help on one those two late drives, did he not? Wasn't there a big pass interference penalty?

I don't know, I've gone back and forth on this but ultimately I think you need to make Manning and the Colts earn that comeback win. Who knows what can happen when you're desperately driving down the field in under two minutes? Manning wasn't in top form and an interception is certainly possible.
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He was back in top form by the 4th quarter, that's for sure.

I agree, by punting, at least there is a chance of something going wrong - a muffed punt, a fumble, an interception (although less likely at that point). Which is why if it had been me, I probably would've punted, although in the back of my mind, I would've been saying over and over, "We're screwed."

People critiquing the call is fine, but saying it was arrogant and that he was an ass for doing it is stupid.
 
I understand the argument. I see both sides. Give the ball to your hall of fame QB and see if you can get 1 yard. Don't give the ball to the other hall of fame QB.

However, 3 possessions before, Manning threw an interception. I guess anything could happen.

Now I'm just playing devil's advocate. I don't dislike Belichick, I don't dislike the Pats. I just wonder what would have happened if they gave Manning a longer field.

edit: I'm thinking about 3 possessions before...was that really when Peyton threw the INT? You know, the miscommunication to Wayne?
 
Understood. I know you don't care one way or the other, Phil.

And you are correct. The second interception was in the fourth quarter, sandwiched in between both TD drives. I thought it was in the third, but I just double checked.

Like I said, anything could've happened, which is why I personally would've punted, but I can definitely understand the logic behind going for it there.

And as I mentioned before, I maintain that Belichick's blunder was not that call, but the hideous time management he used just prior to that by blowing those two timeouts. In the end, it's his responsibility for having the right personnel on the field.
 
i still think at that stage, regardless of the turnovers, the momentum was entirely with the colts offense and they were going to march down the field and score regardless. like i said the other day, the pats biggest mistake was not letting addai run in with a minute or so to go.
 
Fourth down aside, the entire quarter was not Belichick's finest. If you're going to go for it on fourth-and-2, then you should strongly consider a run up the middle on third down. Even half a yard helps out a lot, and if you somehow get stuffed for a 5-yard loss, then you can "safely" punt.

Given the fourth-and-2, I am very surprised that Belichick went with an empty formation. The Patriots' favorite fourth-and-2 formation is shotgun with Kevin Faulk in the backfield, where he is a threat to take a direct snap and run up the middle.

Re: the matador defense, Advanced NFL Stats says playing straight D has maybe a 2% advantage over letting them score with average teams and isn't super-confident about it; plugging in the respective offenses probably makes the matador the better option. Obviously it never entered the Pats' minds; otherwise they'd have let Addai score standing up instead of felling him at the 1, and this is perhaps another coaching mistake (Belichick could have told everyone on the sideline that as soon as a guy gets inside the 2, let him in, or something like that).
 
coolian2 said:
like i said the other day, the pats biggest mistake was not letting addai run in with a minute or so to go.
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Like I said a few posts back, I think he laid down on purpose at the goal line to keep the clock running. Didn't anyone else see it that way? It appeared if he wanted to push forward he could have done so. He didn't even try to reach his arm and the ball over the goal line. He didn't want to score.
 
AnnRKeyintheUSA said:
Look at this, did Belichick's bodyguard push down this cameraman?

<embed type="application/x-shockwave-flash" src="http://photos.indystar.com/included_multimedia/embed.swf" flashvars="xmlfile=http://photos.indystar.com/galleries/7944-belichick-aide-appears-to-shove-nbc-cameraman.xml" pluginspage=" http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer" height="405" width="500"></embed><div style="font-size:10px;text-align:center;width:500px;margin-top:3px;"><a href="http://photos.indystar.com/galleries/7944-belichick-aide-appears-to-shove-nbc-cameraman">Belichick aide appears to shove NBC cameraman</a> - <a href="http://photos.indystar.com/galleries">More The Indianapolis Star Galleries</a></div><div style="display:none"> View this gallery at The Indianapolis Star: <a href="http://photos.indystar.com/galleries/7944-belichick-aide-appears-to-shove-nbc-cameraman">Belichick aide appears to shove NBC cameraman</a> </div>
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what the...
 
my final argument on why the 4th and 2 play was a dipshit, bonehead play call before moving on...

take this statement...

belichick decided to go for it on 4th and 2 on his own 29 with a 6 point lead and 2 minutes to play.

say it out loud. now take the same statement and change just one word...

mangini decided to go for it on 4th and 2 on his own 29 with a 6 point lead and 2 minutes to play.

go ahead... admit it. you giggled at the stupidity of the decision when the word "mangini" was involved.

even all knowing, god like, first ballot hall of fame coaches can fuck up from time to time. nobody would be defending this decision if a proven moron like the mangenius had done it. the only reason why it's even being tossed around as being the right call is because of belichick's body of work.

the best description of the play call i've heard was by some caller on Boomer & Carton, who said the decision was one of a "scared kid playing Madden."
 
If Mangini made the call as the coach of the Patriots, with the EXACT same players, I doubt the treatment would have been harsher than it is now.

If he made the call with the Browns, then yeah, he'd be skewered.

The bungling of the timeouts was far worse than the fourth down call.
 
Headache in a Suitcase said:
my final argument on why the 4th and 2 play was a dipshit, bonehead play call before moving on...

take this statement...

belichick decided to go for it on 4th and 2 on his own 29 with a 6 point lead and 2 minutes to play.

say it out loud. now take the same statement and change just one word...

mangini decided to go for it on 4th and 2 on his own 29 with a 6 point lead and 2 minutes to play.

go ahead... admit it. you giggled at the stupidity of the decision when the word "mangini" was involved.

even all knowing, god like, first ballot hall of fame coaches can fuck up from time to time. nobody would be defending this decision if a proven moron like the mangenius had done it. the only reason why it's even being tossed around as being the right call is because of belichick's body of work.

the best description of the play call i've heard was by some caller on Boomer & Carton, who said the decision was one of a "scared kid playing Madden."
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best argument. case closed.

and as a browns fan, i can't imagine the day when the browns would be in this position. dare to dream!
 
phanan said:
Some people (not all I stress, just a select few) here hate Belichick, which is fine. But don't let your dislike of the man cloud your judgement.
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.....................fine. I hate him. I cant help it :( I'm a Miami fan, what can I say?
That being said, I still think it wasnt a great idea going for it (In hindsight it was great, because of the sweetness of his failed attempt). One thing that stats site doesnt take into account is the situation for 4th and 2. Alright, teams make it 60% of the time. But of those 60%, how many do you think were at the opponents 45 yard line or so where you almost might as well go for it instead of punting. Or how about 4th and goal from the 2? I just dont think theres a higher pressure down than what he put his team in. He took a gamble and he got burned. Maybe it wasnt completely based on arrogance, but to say he isnt arrogant in a general sense is silly. I think that had at least something to do with the play call
 
alright fantasy people.

in my PPR league, i was just offered Mendenhall for Desean Jackson. you think i should take it? the rest of my team is solid, so this would be a flex position.
 
The timeout usage by the Pats in that game was straight out of the Andy Reid Guide to Coaching (with Foreward by Donovan McNabb).

15006_feature.jpg
 
Headache in a Suitcase said:
my final argument on why the 4th and 2 play was a dipshit, bonehead play call before moving on...

take this statement...

belichick decided to go for it on 4th and 2 on his own 29 with a 6 point lead and 2 minutes to play.

say it out loud. now take the same statement and change just one word...

mangini decided to go for it on 4th and 2 on his own 29 with a 6 point lead and 2 minutes to play.

go ahead... admit it. you giggled at the stupidity of the decision when the word "mangini" was involved.
Click to expand...

I don't watch Redskins games regularly, but TMQ has praised Jim Zorn for taking "crazy" "gambles" on fourth down several times.
 
Jive Turkey said:
.....................fine. I hate him. I cant help it :( I'm a Miami fan, what can I say?
That being said, I still think it wasnt a great idea going for it (In hindsight it was great, because of the sweetness of his failed attempt). One thing that stats site doesnt take into account is the situation for 4th and 2. Alright, teams make it 60% of the time. But of those 60%, how many do you think were at the opponents 45 yard line or so where you almost might as well go for it instead of punting. Or how about 4th and goal from the 2?
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Any given down and distance is easier the farther away you are from scoring, because the defense has less field to cover. Probably not much of a difference between 70 yards away and 40 yards away, but definitely a huge difference between 70 yards away and 2 yards away, which is why using the 45% rate on 2-point conversions (as some people want to do) is absurd.

The baseline stats give a pretty big edge in favor of going for it, and you have to make a lot of adjustments in order to reverse the verdict.


I just dont think theres a higher pressure down than what he put the Colts in.
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See what I did there?

People always assume that "pressure" is a disadvantage for the offense, and as far as I can tell this judgment is without basis.
 
speedracer said:
Any given down and distance is easier the farther away you are from scoring, because the defense has less field to cover. Probably not much of a difference between 70 yards away and 40 yards away, but definitely a huge difference between 70 yards away and 2 yards away, which is why using the 45% rate on 2-point conversions (as some people want to do) is absurd.
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I'm talking psychologically though. Sure, there was pressure on the Colts too, but the Patriots were on their heels and the Colts were closing in. I'm just saying that the 60% stat is probably composed of a lot of conversions where the situation was less dire. The site took time left and field position into account for the possibility of scoring, but not for converting the 4th down. Would it be that much different? I dont know, but I would think it would be. Either way, I admit my bias, but still think the play call was not as good as the stats site would have us believe
 
Jive Turkey said:
I'm talking psychologically though. Sure, there was pressure on the Colts too, but the Patriots were on their heels and the Colts were closing in. I'm just saying that the 60% stat is probably composed of a lot of conversions where the situation was less dire. The site took time left and field position into account for the possibility of scoring, but not for converting the 4th down. Would it be that much different? I dont know, but I would think it would be.
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Again, you're implicitly assuming that the probability adjustment due to psychology (to whatever extent there is one) must be against the offense. Why should that be? Finally, you have to really knock down the Patriots' fourth down odds (to around 40%) to get the numbers to come out in favor of punting.
 
Lets just agree to disagree and move on :) Its really not all that interesting anyway
 
this has got to be the strangest arguement i have ever seen in here.

Bottom line, if the Patriots converted on the 4th and 2 they win the game and Bellichick is a genius. The problem is they didn't, and bellychick is a bum for a week.

thats all...case closed....move along now.
 
speedracer said:
Again, you're implicitly assuming that the probability adjustment due to psychology (to whatever extent there is one) must be against the offense. Why should that be? Finally, you have to really knock down the Patriots' fourth down odds (to around 40%) to get the numbers to come out in favor of punting.
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Is 45% ok? Cause that's the 4th down percentage the Pats have this year I believe.

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