**Political Junkies** 2020 US Election Predictions - U2 Feedback

Go Back   U2 Feedback > Lypton Village > Free Your Mind
Click Here to Login
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Old 08-27-2020, 01:10 AM   #1
Rock n' Roll Doggie
womanfish's Avatar
Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: moons of Zooropa
Posts: 6,974
Local Time: 06:29 AM
**Political Junkies** 2020 US Election Predictions

I wanted to make this a separate thread so that it is easy to come back to and see our predictions vs. the results on November 3... 4... 6,,, 12th... whatever.

Ok, so here are the loose ground rules.

State what you think the National Poll Average will be on November 2nd, on 538

State what you will think will be the results in the following "swing states"

North Carolina

Beyond those states, please try to give some predictions on some traditionally red state results - South Carolina, Alaska, Kansas, Missouri, etc...

And please try to give at least one hot take. ie. Trump wins MI. Biden wins TX, Trump wins NV...

Then, if possible, use a site like 270 to win to calculate what the final Electoral College result would be.

BONUS - Give us your thoughts on the Senate races

Cunningham in NC
McGrath in KY
Peters in MI
Harrison in SC
Hickenlooper in CO
Kelly in AZ
Greenfield in IA
Ossof in GA
Bullock in MT
and everyone's favorite - Gideon/Collins in Maine

Try to be bold! Have some fun with it.

So I will start it off. I am using a bit of gut and bit of stats to come up with my answers. I personally think that Biden will actually outperform the polls in some states and hit around the average in others. I also know from living in FL for a while that it seems that Repubs have outperformed polls there by around 3% for the last state and national elections. I also have seen that the redder the state, the bigger the swing towards Biden. So I am using sort of a graduated calculation on how Biden will fare in the pink and purple states.

I think the National Polling Average on 538 will be Biden +6.7 on November 2nd.

The following swing state results will be:

Michigan - Biden wins by 6%
Pennsylvania - Biden wins by 6.5%
Wisconsin - Biden wins by 4%
North Carolina - Biden wins by 0.5%
Arizona - Biden wins by 1.5%
Florida - Biden wins by 2%
Georgia - HOT TAKE - Biden wins by 0.5%
Texas - Trump wins by 3%
Iowa - Trump wins by 2.5%
Ohio - HOT TAKE - Biden wins by 1%

Ok, next
South Carolina - Trump wins by 4.7%
Alaska - Trump wins by 3%
Kansas - Trump wins by 6.5%
Missouri - Trump wins by 2.5%

That means that with my predictions - Biden will win the Electoral College: 368 to 170

Cunningham in NC - Cunningham wins
McGrath in KY - McTurtle wins
Peters in MI - Peters wins
Harrison in SC - HOT TAKE - Harrison wins - Bye bye Lady G.
Hickenlooper in CO - Hickenlooper wins
Kelly in AZ - Kelly wins
Greenfield in IA - Greenfield wins
Ossof in GA - Ossof loses
Bullock in MT - Bullock loses VERY narrowly
Gideon/Collins in Maine - Gideon wins VERY narrowly

Senate now in Dem Control 52 to 48

I would like to get as many predictions in as quickly as possible before we get a ton of polls in the next week or two. Lets try to close off predictions by September 15th.

Have fun!

womanfish is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-27-2020, 05:59 AM   #2
Blue Crack Distributor
Headache in a Suitcase's Avatar
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: Stateless
Posts: 66,906
Local Time: 02:29 AM
God I hate this but I think he's going to be reelected. Legitimately? Who knows. But I do. We're just too stupid a nation to not do it to ourselves again.
Headache in a Suitcase is offline   Reply With Quote

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off

All times are GMT -5. The time now is 01:29 AM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Design, images and all things inclusive copyright © Interference.com