**Political Junkies** 2020 US Election Predictions

[womanfish]

I wanted to make this a separate thread so that it is easy to come back to and see our predictions vs. the results on November 3... 4... 6,,, 12th... whatever.

Ok, so here are the loose ground rules.

State what you think the National Poll Average will be on November 2nd, on 538

State what you will think will be the results in the following "swing states"

Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
North Carolina
Arizona
Florida
Georgia
Texas
Iowa
Ohio

Beyond those states, please try to give some predictions on some traditionally red state results - South Carolina, Alaska, Kansas, Missouri, etc...

And please try to give at least one hot take. ie. Trump wins MI. Biden wins TX, Trump wins NV...

Then, if possible, use a site like 270 to win to calculate what the final Electoral College result would be.

BONUS - Give us your thoughts on the Senate races

Cunningham in NC
McGrath in KY
Peters in MI
Harrison in SC
Hickenlooper in CO
Kelly in AZ
Greenfield in IA
Ossof in GA
Bullock in MT
and everyone's favorite - Gideon/Collins in Maine

Try to be bold! Have some fun with it.

So I will start it off. I am using a bit of gut and bit of stats to come up with my answers. I personally think that Biden will actually outperform the polls in some states and hit around the average in others. I also know from living in FL for a while that it seems that Repubs have outperformed polls there by around 3% for the last state and national elections. I also have seen that the redder the state, the bigger the swing towards Biden. So I am using sort of a graduated calculation on how Biden will fare in the pink and purple states.

I think the National Polling Average on 538 will be Biden +6.7 on November 2nd.

The following swing state results will be:

Michigan - Biden wins by 6%
Pennsylvania - Biden wins by 6.5%
Wisconsin - Biden wins by 4%
North Carolina - Biden wins by 0.5%
Arizona - Biden wins by 1.5%
Florida - Biden wins by 2%
Georgia - HOT TAKE - Biden wins by 0.5%
Texas - Trump wins by 3%
Iowa - Trump wins by 2.5%
Ohio - HOT TAKE - Biden wins by 1%

Ok, next
South Carolina - Trump wins by 4.7%
Alaska - Trump wins by 3%
Kansas - Trump wins by 6.5%
Missouri - Trump wins by 2.5%

That means that with my predictions - Biden will win the Electoral College: 368 to 170

Senate:
Cunningham in NC - Cunningham wins
McGrath in KY - McTurtle wins
Peters in MI - Peters wins
Harrison in SC - HOT TAKE - Harrison wins - Bye bye Lady G.
Hickenlooper in CO - Hickenlooper wins
Kelly in AZ - Kelly wins
Greenfield in IA - Greenfield wins
Ossof in GA - Ossof loses
Bullock in MT - Bullock loses VERY narrowly
Gideon/Collins in Maine - Gideon wins VERY narrowly

Senate now in Dem Control 52 to 48

I would like to get as many predictions in as quickly as possible before we get a ton of polls in the next week or two. Lets try to close off predictions by September 15th.

Have fun!

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

God I hate this but I think he's going to be reelected. Legitimately? Who knows. But I do. We're just too stupid a nation to not do it to ourselves again.