Brexit

[Salome]

Farage has left the (burning) building.

Something with rats and ships.

[Popmartijn]

Originally Posted by Salome

Farage has left the (burning) building.

Something with rats and ships.

Or more like, captain and the Concordia cruise ship.

[mama cass]

this is eerie - article published by Nick Clegg (Lib Dems) the day before the referendum

https://inews.co.uk/opinion/comment/...ke-vote-leave/

Nick Clegg: what you will wake up to if we vote to Leave…


Wednesday June 22nd 2016

Are you still undecided? Are you someone who – pummelled by weeks of claim and counter-claim – has been left exhausted and annoyed? Have you been looking for answers, yet all you’ve encountered are insults and exaggeration?

Maybe you’re so fed up you think to hell with it, let’s throw caution to the wind and vote Brexit. Imagine, however, what happens next. Imagine how you will feel on 24 June?

Having woken on Friday to the news we’re quitting the EU, you will assume that those who persuaded you to take that leap of faith have a plan about what to do next.

So imagine how dismayed you will feel when you discover, instead, that Nigel Farage, Michael Gove and Boris Johnson can’t agree among themselves what life outside the EU looks like? They may be united by a ferocious loathing of the EU, but they have no shared plan for the future.

Gridlock

So you will look towards our leaders in Westminster to sort out the mess. Instead, they argue among themselves: the Conservatives descend into a bloody leadership election; Parliament enters years of constitutional gridlock trying to extricate itself from the intricate legal stitching which binds us to the EU and gives us access to world markets.

Then you discover just how unprepared the Government is – that there simply aren’t enough trade negotiators in Whitehall, for instance, with the expertise to renegotiate 50 or so international trade accords.

As politicians bicker, you become increasingly unnerved by what’s happening in the economy, too: overseas investors take fright; money flows out of the country; our credit rating is slashed; the interest on our borrowing goes up; unemployment rises; sterling tanks; prices in the shops go up.

Nicola Sturgeon soon announces that preparations have started for a second independence referendum, claiming it is the only way to keep Scotland in the EU. And this time most commentators think that she will win.

Still, at least they will finally sort out our borders, right? After all, ending mass immigration was the Brexiteers biggest claim of all.

So imagine how you’ll feel when you discover that they don’t have a plan for that either? Some argue for a new land border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland to stop EU immigrants coming in through the “back door”. Others that a new border would harm the peace in Northern Ireland. The Australian points system which they advocate is no solution either – it has led to immigration levels twice as high as in the UK.

Panic

Panic starts to spread among the 1.3 million Brits who live, study and retire elsewhere in the EU. Spanish politicians start to complain about paying for public services used by British pensioners. If we start excluding Spanish doctors and nurses, why should they keep paying for our pensioners?

And then there’s that faintly queasy feeling you get when you see Donald Trump on the TV, visiting the UK on Friday, declaring his joy at the Brexit vote.

Meanwhile Angela Merkel invites President Obama to an emergency summit to discuss the fallout – the UK is, of course, excluded from what soon emerges as the new “special relationship” between the US and Germany.

The Brexiteers say you will “regain control”. But it won’t feel like that. Instead, the economy lurches to recession; there’s upheaval in Westminster; no plan to allay concerns about immigration; another referendum in Scotland; a steep slide in Britain’s standing in the world.

Our wonderful country adrift – not in control. And for what? Nigel, Michael and Boris still won’t be able to tell you why.

[digitize]

Originally Posted by mama cass

this is eerie - article published by Nick Clegg (Lib Dems) the day before the referendum

https://inews.co.uk/opinion/comment/...ke-vote-leave/

Nick Clegg: what you will wake up to if we vote to Leave…


Wednesday June 22nd 2016

Are you still undecided? Are you someone who – pummelled by weeks of claim and counter-claim – has been left exhausted and annoyed? Have you been looking for answers, yet all you’ve encountered are insults and exaggeration?

Maybe you’re so fed up you think to hell with it, let’s throw caution to the wind and vote Brexit. Imagine, however, what happens next. Imagine how you will feel on 24 June?

Having woken on Friday to the news we’re quitting the EU, you will assume that those who persuaded you to take that leap of faith have a plan about what to do next.

So imagine how dismayed you will feel when you discover, instead, that Nigel Farage, Michael Gove and Boris Johnson can’t agree among themselves what life outside the EU looks like? They may be united by a ferocious loathing of the EU, but they have no shared plan for the future.

Gridlock

So you will look towards our leaders in Westminster to sort out the mess. Instead, they argue among themselves: the Conservatives descend into a bloody leadership election; Parliament enters years of constitutional gridlock trying to extricate itself from the intricate legal stitching which binds us to the EU and gives us access to world markets.

Then you discover just how unprepared the Government is – that there simply aren’t enough trade negotiators in Whitehall, for instance, with the expertise to renegotiate 50 or so international trade accords.

As politicians bicker, you become increasingly unnerved by what’s happening in the economy, too: overseas investors take fright; money flows out of the country; our credit rating is slashed; the interest on our borrowing goes up; unemployment rises; sterling tanks; prices in the shops go up.

Nicola Sturgeon soon announces that preparations have started for a second independence referendum, claiming it is the only way to keep Scotland in the EU. And this time most commentators think that she will win.

Still, at least they will finally sort out our borders, right? After all, ending mass immigration was the Brexiteers biggest claim of all.

So imagine how you’ll feel when you discover that they don’t have a plan for that either? Some argue for a new land border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland to stop EU immigrants coming in through the “back door”. Others that a new border would harm the peace in Northern Ireland. The Australian points system which they advocate is no solution either – it has led to immigration levels twice as high as in the UK.

Panic

Panic starts to spread among the 1.3 million Brits who live, study and retire elsewhere in the EU. Spanish politicians start to complain about paying for public services used by British pensioners. If we start excluding Spanish doctors and nurses, why should they keep paying for our pensioners?

And then there’s that faintly queasy feeling you get when you see Donald Trump on the TV, visiting the UK on Friday, declaring his joy at the Brexit vote.

Meanwhile Angela Merkel invites President Obama to an emergency summit to discuss the fallout – the UK is, of course, excluded from what soon emerges as the new “special relationship” between the US and Germany.

The Brexiteers say you will “regain control”. But it won’t feel like that. Instead, the economy lurches to recession; there’s upheaval in Westminster; no plan to allay concerns about immigration; another referendum in Scotland; a steep slide in Britain’s standing in the world.

Our wonderful country adrift – not in control. And for what? Nigel, Michael and Boris still won’t be able to tell you why.

I read this a few days ago. Makes me miss when Nick Clegg was relevant.


Sent from my iPhone using U2 Interference

[nbelcik]

Today is the 240th anniversary of the original Brexit. We did it better


Sent from my iPhone using U2 Interference

[Dfit00]

British tourists refused cash exchange amid market turmoil

This would have to suck really badly. Imagine going on vacation to exchange your quid and get shit in return. The glorious days of the sterling pound are long gone for good.

[LuckyNumber7]

Long gone for good? I would imagine that's a bit of an exaggeration.

[cmcmc]

I don't think Brexit will really matter, the Italians are balancing on one leg on the edge of a cliff right now, will they fall or is the greatest bailout in history about to begin?


The Italian job | The Economist

Italy must choose between the euro and its own economic survival

France and Italy could be the next European economies to crash | Voices | The Independent

[Dfit00]

Originally Posted by LuckyNumber7

Long gone for good? I would imagine that's a bit of an exaggeration.

Well think about it, the sterling pound held the strongest exchange rate against the US dollar to a ratio of almost 1 to 2 around 2007. It has been then consistently diminishing reaching an average of 1 to 1.60 and now it's at its minimum at 1 to 1.30.

You can speculate that it will get stronger or weaker depending on how their economic policies with the EU play out, but it's uncertain. The euro has also been falling rapidly.

Seeing what was once considered one of the most stable and strongest currencies being rejected in exchange houses around the world makes you think how long it will take to recover, if ever.

[LuckyNumber7]

Originally Posted by Dfit00

Well think about it, the sterling pound held the strongest exchange rate against the US dollar to a ratio of almost 1 to 2 around 2007. It has been then consistently diminishing reaching an average of 1 to 1.60 and now it's at its minimum at 1 to 1.30.

You can speculate that it will get stronger or weaker depending on how their economic policies with the EU play out, but it's uncertain. The euro has also been falling rapidly.

Seeing what was once considered one of the most stable and strongest currencies being rejected in exchange houses around the world makes you think how long it will take to recover, if ever.

But the full scale relationship for the GBPUSD isn't a mere 9 years. And the GBP's strength was never resting on the EU by any stretch of the imagination. Long term, the U.K. will be just fine, assuming it itself doesn't collapse. If anything, the long term implications could even be positive for the United Kingdom.

It's not like this is the lowest the exchange rate as ever been. Currencies crash based upon global economics and politics. And they rebound. 2007 wasn't the strongest it had been, and this isn't the weakest it has been.

If you truly believe the GBP rested on the EU, then yes, it is toast. But something tells me not a whole lot will change between a very large British economy and the rest of Europe, in the grand scheme of things.

[Salome]

Originally Posted by LuckyNumber7

If anything, the long term implications could even be positive for the United Kingdom.

Again, how?
If anything, especially in the long run 'unions' are beneficial.
Hedging your bets and all.

It's not like the UK is an economic powerhouse outside of The City.
So what happens if the financial sector takes another beating (which does seem like it's on its way to happen)? Will the UK then have to start to look at Greece as an example so it can become a tourism based economy?

[LuckyNumber7]

Originally Posted by Salome

Again, how?
If anything, especially in the long run 'unions' are beneficial.
Hedging your bets and all.

It's not like the UK is an economic powerhouse outside of The City.
So what happens if the financial sector takes another beating (which does seem like it's on its way to happen)? Will the UK then have to start to look at Greece as an example so it can become a tourism based economy?

"Again?" You haven't said anything to me. Unless you're supporting his position, which was that a less-than-decade trend implies the ultimate-and-forever demise of the GBP.

There's plenty of ways this can be beneficial to the UK. For one, if the EU doesn't survive, the UK alone and ahead of that future potential mess could be beneficial. But let's not act like there's a precedence for this. I'm not even defending Brexit as an appropriate move that was supported by any populous rationale. But to act as though anyone truly knows the long term effects of this move... what basis have you to support that claim?

That's a laughable idea that the UK would need to become a tourism based economy. We are talking about the fifth largest economy in volume. In a fully developed country. Loaded with infrastructure. Connected in trade to dozens of countries worldwide who still hail the queen. A large producer of energy. An even larger producer of science and technology, aerospace defense, military, and arms.

Yeah, they're about to take a near term beating. But to think a country as well equipped as the United Kingdom is somehow set to fall off the face of the earth because Europe will temporarily shit on them is silly. Hell, half of the economic beating they're about to take is purely based upon global panic.

[mama cass]

Originally Posted by LuckyNumber7

A large producer of energy.

that would be EDF...

[mama cass]

trouble is, even if low sterling might be good for exports, the gains would be obliterated by imports of raw materials

already, there are factories being mothballed, businesses moving their production to mainland Europe

not to mention food... we hardly grow anything decent in Britain - all our food comes from southern Europe

[Salome]

Originally Posted by LuckyNumber7

There's plenty of ways this can be beneficial to the UK. For one, if the EU doesn't survive, the UK alone and ahead of that future potential mess could be beneficial. But let's not act like there's a precedence for this. I'm not even defending Brexit as an appropriate move that was supported by any populous rationale. But to act as though anyone truly knows the long term effects of this move... what basis have you to support that claim?

I didn't claim that the long term effects will be disastrous.
I just don't see how UK outside of EU will outperform UK within EU.
Especially as the UK will still be tied to the EU, as much as some want to pretend this will not be the case.

I do claim that in the long term unions, which are by definition more diversified, will always be able to deal better with crises than stand alone countries.

Originally Posted by LuckyNumber7

That's a laughable idea that the UK would need to become a tourism based economy. We are talking about the fifth largest economy in volume. In a fully developed country. Loaded with infrastructure. Connected in trade to dozens of countries worldwide who still hail the queen. A large producer of energy. An even larger producer of science and technology, aerospace defense, military, and arms.

Of course that is a laughable idea. But my point is that The City represent a somewhat disproportionate amount of the UK economy and that the UK will be better able to deal with another financial services crisis inside than outside of the UK.

Originally Posted by LuckyNumber7

Yeah, they're about to take a near term beating. But to think a country as well equipped as the United Kingdom is somehow set to fall off the face of the earth because Europe will temporarily shit on them is silly. Hell, half of the economic beating they're about to take is purely based upon global panic.

I don't think the UK will enter the dark ages now. There is no reason why it would beyond that it has seemed to enter a period of political instability and business does not like instability. Months prior to the referendum companies already postponed possible investments in the UK. I don't see how that is going to change in the next couple of years with no insight in what Brexit is going to entail. Will the Brexit voters be satisfied with a deal similar to what Norway and Switzerland have which will achieve about 1% of what they were promised by the Leave Campaign? I don't know. But if I was deciding over funds of a major company I would look elsewhere to put my money.

Why UK would perform better outside than inside the EU, I still don't understand. Yes, if the entire EU explodes after UK has left (to be honest, if the EU is going to explode I reckon it's more likely to happen within the next 3 years while UK is still part of EU) than this would be the case. But otherwise, I don't see it.

[LuckyNumber7]

Originally Posted by Salome

I don't think the UK will enter the dark ages now. There is no reason why it would beyond that it has seemed to enter a period of political instability and business does not like instability. Months prior to the referendum companies already postponed possible investments in the UK. I don't see how that is going to change in the next couple of years with no insight in what Brexit is going to entail. Will the Brexit voters be satisfied with a deal similar to what Norway and Switzerland have which will achieve about 1% of what they were promised by the Leave Campaign? I don't know. But if I was deciding over funds of a major company I would look elsewhere to put my money.

Why UK would perform better outside than inside the EU, I still don't understand. Yes, if the entire EU explodes after UK has left (to be honest, if the EU is going to explode I reckon it's more likely to happen within the next 3 years while UK is still part of EU) than this would be the case. But otherwise, I don't see it.

A political climate can change in the course of a few years. I don't think it's even a question of whether or not the Brexit voters will be okay with economic deals similar to that of Switzerland or Norway. It's not only not a question, but highly inevitable. The UK needs Europe and similarly Europe needs the UK. Of course the UK is due for near term economic backlash, both now from a speculative standpoint and in two years when they actually Brexit and get a firm slap on the wrist as to be made an example of. Yes, their near term, < 5 year outlook isn't very bright. They're going to slow down growth. They're in for a recession. And, once they've been firmly made an example of and Europe is also suffering, it'll be like nothing never happened when they both come crawling back to each other all but in namesake.

The UK's potential long term though is volatile. It could be lower, the same as, or higher than what they would've been had they stayed in the UK. That's mostly because of the EU, not because of the UK. The EU hasn't exactly been working on a positive note as of recent history. But to the point... even if you think the only way an EU collapse could happen is within the next 3 years (which is reasonable to assume), the UK getting the head start absolutely makes a huge difference in terms of coming out of the other side fully prepared and in first place. Were the EU to begin to dismantle slowly, that's a sinking ship where you don't want to be the ones trying to hold it all together.

[Popmartijn]

Originally Posted by LuckyNumber7

I don't think it's even a question of whether or not the Brexit voters will be okay with economic deals similar to that of Switzerland or Norway. It's not only not a question, but highly inevitable.

Why would the Brexit voters be okay with a situation similar as Norway or Switzerland? That would not address many issues they were railing against (most notably, immigration from other EU countries).

I think the picture below gives a good overview of the different scenarios available to the UK:


As you can see, an absolute Brexit with full independence will close most of the opportunities for the UK. The City is highly services oriented, so a restriction on movement of services (and people) will have a huge impact on the British economy. But if they do want to have free trade of services and people, they'll also need to comply with many other regulations that would seem to clash with their Brexit stance.

[mama cass]

Originally Posted by LuckyNumber7

An even larger producer of science and technology

re. just one of many aspects... Brexit is going to be a huge problem for the British life sciences industry as the EMA (European Medicines Agency, equivalent to the FDA in the US) is set to leave London, possibly relocating to Sweden or Denmark, inevitably taking research scientists with it... the industry can't limit itself just to the UK, not when you sell one medical device per hospital and depend on European funding also, so the industry will have no choice but to move where the regulatory bodies and funding go... the whole thing is just so far reaching it's unreal... 40 years of legislation, treaties and agreements to unravel, negotiate and rewrite... insanity, unless Britain has at least 500 trade/legal specialists with nothing else to do for the next 10 years... but in the meantime?

[mama cass]

Originally Posted by Popmartijn

Why would the Brexit voters be okay with a situation similar as Norway or Switzerland? That would not address many issues they were railing against (most notably, immigration from other EU countries).

I think the picture below gives a good overview of the different scenarios available to the UK:


As you can see, an absolute Brexit with full independence will close most of the opportunities for the UK. The City is highly services oriented, so a restriction on movement of services (and people) will have a huge impact on the British economy. But if they do want to have free trade of services and people, they'll also need to comply with many other regulations that would seem to clash with their Brexit stance.

contingency plans are already underway re. relocating the financial services, and job losses have already been announced - financial sector just couldn't stay in Britain due to passporting requirements... lots of contenders (including France) currently rubbing their hands together with glee... they want Britain out as soon as possible

[iron yuppie]

Originally Posted by Salome

But if I was deciding over funds of a major company I would look elsewhere to put my money.

Would you? It seems like the assumption in this thread is that the EU is a hell of a lot healthier and more stable than it really is. You already have three member states in full-blown crisis (Cyprus, Greece, Spain) with another one looking poised to follow in Italy, also apparently rumblings of major financial problems on the rise in France. You can talk about the Pound struggling as well, which distracts from the Euro being barely 1.10 vs the Dollar as we speak. Only five years ago it was 1.60 if I am remembering correctly, maybe even higher.

Re: the talk about Euro funding for various British institutions. The UK government can choose to fund those for themselves if they like - it's just a matter of priorities and of moving away from a conservative party that wants to cut everything. In my mind Brexit only becomes an economic disaster for the UK if its politicians make it so.