The better example you could've given, actually, is California - played three times at SOI promo dates, and then three times on the IE Tour. No other song has such a bad record (Volcano is one promo to ten tour dates).
Normally, being played on the promo tour is a harbinger of regular performance on the subsequent main tour. Ever since U2 started doing what we now recognise as a promo tour, with ATYCLB, only California and Volcano have not been performed heavily on the main tour. OOTS took a long time to find a stable setlist spot, but was a regular for the third leg of Vertigo.
So, yeah, being played on the promo tour is a good predictor that a song will be a regular on the tour - as good as a predictor as being a single. Put the two together and it's a lock.
On the question of American Soul as a single, I thought the folks who do all the chart watching said it had been distributed to radio stations or something? It doesn't appear on Australian Spotify as a single, but then nor does GOOYOW (which I swear used to have its own release in the singles section, huh).