one reason why trump won't be the nominee... money.
the money will flow behind desantis. fox has already begun propping him up.
trump won't be able to spend on his campaign because he's going to need every penny of his fundraising grift towards his legal defense.
he's about to be indicted in New York, possibly as early as tonight.
he faces a $250 million dollar fine in New York State in a civil trial that begins in October - which would also restrict the Trump Organization from operating as a business entity in New York State... a business that, by the way, is in terrible shape and is bleeding money.
his civil rape trial is continuing.
and oh, by the way, there's also Jack Smith and Georgia (although the republicans in Georgia are doing their best to overturn it).
McCarthy is a spineless weasel - but he'll cave eventually. He's already lost McConnell.
he's done. the "he needs the base" line is bullshit. he would have lost the primaries in 2016 if the republicans would have been able to get out of their own way (woah oh oh, ohhhhh). he never topped the mid 30s until it was too late to do anything about it. the republican money won't let that happen again.
everyone is focused on Trump beating DeSantis 42 to 36 in the last polling. they're focused on the wrong thing. it's trump 42, someone else 58. yes - in a head to head trump is currently ahead 51 to 49 - but give it time. once it's clear that the money won't be with them - the other candidates will all prop up desantis in the same way they did biden.
the legal issues will continue to build.
desantis will continue to laugh at trump and talk about his success (i.e. while trump was losing all over the country in 2022, desantis swept to a landslide victory in florida and took over all parts of the state legislature). he has that in his pocket. he actually keeps winning, while trump keeps losing over and over again.
and ultimately trump will have to be out in public again - and everyone will be reminded of what a mush brained invalid he is. he makes biden look downright young and energetic in comparison. trump's a low energy, mind wandering blob who can barely read.