Irvine511
Blue Crack Supplier
i'm excited for the whisper campaign against tanned Charlie. should be highly entertaining. and sad.
Either him or Meek.
Rubio will not have much of a chance. He is a right wing nut running in what will be a three way with a popular Republican/Independent Governor and an effective, moderate African American Democratic Congressman.
Florida is a perennial swing state, obviously. However, when it leans Democratic or leans Republican, it never does so to extremes.
So right wing nut Rubio in what is ultimately an extremely pragmatic state(in my experiences, anyway, I spend a lot of time there) will not do as well as people think.
Plus, foaming at the mouth, inexperienced State legislator over effective AG and Governor and effective Democratic Congressman? Who is better suited to the Senate? Who knows how deal making works? Who has the vital connections to avenues of power? These are the questions Florida voters will ask.
I highly doubt Florida will answer these questions with "Rubio." Its not an ideological state in either direction.
As for whether Obama will win in 2012 in Florida, no one knows. Impossible to determine, too much will happen between now and then.
I'd just point out that Obama got it by a much better margin than Bush did in 2004, and he won a lot of Republican leaning counties in Florida. Also, Democrats have widened their voter registration advantage in the State and much was made of many young Cubans in the Miami area breaking with their parents and grandparents and voting for Obama.
and yes young Cubans went for Obama
I would put them in with other independents that broke for Obama (as an anti- Bush vote)
Rubio had just finished signing papers to officially become a Republican candidate for the United States Senate, speaking Spanish, then English, at an event two blocks from where he grew up. And the position he laid out seemed to reflect a tack back toward the middle after initially hardening his stance on immigration when he entered the Senate race.
But Rubio looks good to pick up a good portion of the Hispanic vote
I am sure they like voting for one of their own.
I am sure there will be some polls out this week end with Crist's independent run announcement.
But Rubio looks good to pick up a good portion of the Hispanic vote
I am sure they like voting for one of their own.
Rubio Criticizes Arizona’s Immigration Law - The Caucus Blog - NYTimes.com
Cubans don't have any immigration problems, they have special status, one dry foot and they are legal and documented
Cubans see themselves as being better than those illegal immigrants and get upset when they get mixed in with that group.
also, it looks like this FL Senate race will be fun to watch.
Any of the 3 could win. I have just got out with what I believe is the most likely outcome.
Rubio is very young, attractive and charismatic, all the baggage that regular posters in here attach to him, right-wing nut job, etc. are going to fade very fast.
They tried to stick that stuff on (Tea Party) Candidate Scott Brown. Did that work?
Rubio no longer needs to be 'right' of Crist to win a primary.
Now he will be moderate and reasonable to grab a big portion of the middle ground.
Obama is below 50% approval in FL, too.
So we have Crist and Meek competing for Obama fans and Rubio getting the 50+ per cent that disapprove of Obama?
Seriously, how many right-fringe rallies do you think Rubio will show up at after today?
Rubio has the inside track.
Whether Rubio continues to show up at the right fringe rallies remains to be seen.
I will caution against making the Scott Brown/Rubio analogy, as Rubio was the Tea Party candidate through and through from the beginning. Scott Brown ran far from a Tea Party campaign, he started as obscure sacrificial lamb( all Dems in the primary had a 30 point lead at least over him) and then got voters to pay attention with his independent minded, anti establishment message. The Tea Party mostly tagged along in the last week of the campaign when it became clear Brown had momentum. Brown has not hesitated to piss off the Tea Party on issues like the jobs bill, and he flat out skipped their big rally in Boston.
Bottom line, Brown never embraced the Tea Party label, but it almost defines Rubio.
I agree with you, ultimately, either of the 3 could win, but I tend to lean toward Irvine's view regarding Crist. Very popular and effective AG, then a very popular and effective Governor. He'll get close to all of the independent vote and should get a lot of Republicans who are not right wing nuts.
Meek, I think will get the Democratic base and some independents, but not a significant amount of independents. Anti incumbent year, it will be difficult for a long time Congressional Democrat seeking a promotion to pick up more than his own party.
Now for Rubio. It comes down to this. Something has got to give with regards to the far right, tin foil crowd running the Republican Party. It will begin to have serious implications for their role as the other major party in the country, especially as the economy recovers and the voter anger goes away. I think the FL senate race, a high profile race in a pragmatic state would be the most likely place to see the adults take the Republican Party back. Any sane Republican has got to understand that there is nothing but a long slide into irrelevance offered by Palin, Rubio, Cheney and the rest of the Tea Party.
Crist was the direction the GOP had to go in in 2008 to remain relevant and be taken seriously by independents. It is very telling that the Republican establishment has embraced those who have lined up against him- Gingrich, Armey, Cheney, Palin, etc. What do any of those washed up, has been, scandal ridden idiots have to offer the Republican Party? Nothing, and it shocks me that more Republicans can't see that.
Ultimately, there is a good chance Crist pulls it out, and becomes a kind of spokesperson for the silent majority of disaffected independents who know that the Tea Party is not by any means the way to go.
A Rasmussen poll taken on May 3 had
Crist at 38 percent,
Rubio at 34 percent and
U.S. Rep. Kendrick Meek, the leading Democratic nominee, at 17 percent.
It would be best for him to avoid that phrase
Today’s senior citizens “fought for us” in World War II and “left bodies and blood on the beaches of Normandy,” Walorski said at a recent campaign stop in Kokomo, Ind.
“Our fight of this generation is this ideological war that is brewing in this nation that is going to determine in November who we are as Americans.”
Words fail me.
Sen. Bennett Loses Nomination Bid
SALT LAKE CITY—Republican Senator Robert Bennett of Utah on Saturday became the first incumbent U.S. senator to drop a re-election bid this year after losing a vote for his party's nomination.
The three-term senator, hurt by anti-incumbent sentiment and unpopular moves he made in Washington in the past few years, failed to secure enough support from the 3,500 delegates at the state GOP convention here.
Unlike most states, Utah has an unusual nominating system in which delegates winnow down their party's field of candidates before a primary election. Mr. Bennett was eliminated from the Senate race in the second of three rounds of delegate voting. He finished third in the vote; only the top two vote-getters advanced to the final round.
Speaking to reporters after the vote, a teary-eyed Mr. Bennett offered his congratulations to his two opponents. He defended his controversial moves he made during his past term. "I wouldn't have voted for any of them any differently even if I had known they would cost me my career," he said. The senator, who twice dabbed his nose with a worn piece of tissue during his three-minute statement, did not take questions.
The race for Utah's Republican Senate nomination provides an early, if imperfect, test of the tea-party movement's power.