1) They played 26 songs on a lot of I&E dates. It's manageable- especially, as I alluded to, in stadiums and with the time between shows that has become standard.
2) Hawkmoon is no more a reach than Ultraviolet or Exit or Acrobat or Two Hearts or 11 O Clock Tick Tock or anything else that has been brought back and/or tried for the first time on recent tours.
3) As I'm sure you are well aware, neither SOI nor SOE produced a hit single. So nothing has to be done out of obligation. Fans aren't gonna flip out if they don't hear the miracle or the best thing. These are the weaker tracks live- so it's not unrealistic to say they'll go with the best ones (blackout, summer of love) -'s the ones that tell the story the best(Iris, Cedarwood).Plus, EBW is probably the best known in innocence song.
4) Every single JT warhorse sat out E&I. WOWY had sat out a lot less than Still Haven't Found over the years. 2 of 3 are getting played obviously- I don't see how WOWY isn't the most likely odd man out here.
5) How is there zero chance they play Kite?! They closed with it down under last time, haven't touched t since then. Plus, they spoke very fondly of it as recently as the time around the SOE release. Also, Walk On is probably out due to developments in Burma so I'd say Kite has as good a chance as anything else.
6) This won't be the exact set list, in fact, I'd give my bank account to someone who ever guessed one prior to a tour announcement, but I don't think it's naive at all. I've followed this band a long time. I lay close attention to how they structure their set lists.
No one knows for sure, but naive would be something like half of POP, all of R&H and a couple JT B Sides topped off with 3 warhorses for good measure......