NFL 2012: The Super Bowl and Beyond

[mobvok]

We discussed their turnover dominance earlier this season, and we're talking about it now.

At some point, it stops being random

And they did win a game with a NEGATIVE turnover differential: against the Seahawks.

What? The Seahawks had 3 turnovers in week 1, 49ers 0, the Hawks had 1 turnover in week 16, 49ers 0.

Remember, my position wasn't that the 49ers *aren't* making good decisions throwing the ball, holding onto it, or forcing turnovers, it's that the *magnitude* of the positive ratio was ahistorical. Despite playing for a divisional rival, I'm happy for Alex Smith and this weekend's game did a lot for my impression of him....but the 49ers still had a +4 ratio on some ugly NO play. Not saying he's bad! Bravo, Smith and the Niners. But on a neutral field against the Pats, I just am not going to take him. Not yet ready to make the leap.

 

[DRay9911]

mikal - any truth to the rumor that packers fans tears taste like cheese?

/too soon?

 

[LemonMelon]

I really like San Francisco next week. New York is too inconsistent to put it together four weeks in a row, right?

This is the first game of this run where I've been legitimately impressed by them.

But let's see if Eli Manning has enough skill to thread passes into a secondary that plays receivers right at the chest, while simultaneously allowing NO running game whatsoever. Marshawn Lynch, one of the most talented backs in the league ran well on them (Ray Rice was a non-factor). Jacobs? I'm thinking no. If the Giants even try to run; the Saints never bothered.

Hey, maybe they can win another rematch. But miscues won't be the difference. They'll have to establish a running game and cut through their coverage on the play action.

 

[LemonMelon]

What? The Seahawks had 3 turnovers in week 1, 49ers 0, the Hawks had 1 turnover in week 16, 49ers 0.

Remember, my position wasn't that the 49ers *aren't* making good decisions throwing the ball, holding onto it, or forcing turnovers, it's that the *magnitude* of the positive ratio was ahistorical. Despite playing for a divisional rival, I'm happy for Alex Smith and this weekend's game did a lot for my impression of him....but the 49ers still had a +4 ratio on some ugly NO play. Not saying he's bad! On a neutral field against the Pats, I just am not going to take him.

Oh, it was merely close, not negative? My bad, seriously, I just remembered reading that.

I just don't know how you can argue the Saints played ugly without suggesting SF played well. That's like discounting the Giants' performance tonight because GB wasn't up to par. SF stripped the ball repeatedly, and that takes skill.

And yes, Pats FTW on a neutral site. Brady has too much experience in those situations.

 

[mobvok]

Oh, it was merely close, not negative? My bad, seriously, I just remembered reading that.

I just don't know how you can argue the Saints played ugly without suggesting SF played well. That's like discounting the Giants' performance tonight because GB wasn't up to par. SF stripped the ball repeatedly, and that takes skill.

I must not be explaining myself well. I'm saying SF had, and will be playing well. They're good. The team overcame adversity in the 4th quarter by retaking the lead twice, so that's definitely in Smith and the 49ers' favor.

But an element of their success has also been some luck at turnover recovery. That's made Alex Smith, good 2011 QB, look like Alex Smith, great 2011 QB. When I'm picking a playoff game, I want to be confident that the offense could back from a big multiple-possession deficit. Yeah, Alex Smith has done that this year (....against the Eagles. Does that count?), but against Tom Brady on a neutral field?

So I think we're not necessarily disagreeing, but I'm using the TO ratio as a proxy for arguing that the 49ers need to overcome a bit more adversity before I'd really be in their camp. That's the big point I want to make.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

headache is in the thread!!!!

headache is in the thread!!!

headache is in the thread!!!

I wonder what headache is doing right now. What is his pregame playoff ritual? Is he curled up in the fetal position somewhere? Is he listening to Mick Jagger solo albums?

curled up in the fetal position is the closest to accurate. i stayed home for this one. i'll be heading out for the NFC title game. the giants have dominated since i switched to the jeff feagles jersey, so i'll be wearing that once again on sunday.

I think the Giants are just generally in trouble.

Eli can't match Rodgers pass-for-pass

All that said, I just don't think the Giants have enough offensive talent to put up 35 or 40 points in Lambeau

Fuck the Giants in the face. The only teams these assholes are allowed to beat are the Cowboys and Eagles, which they're free to crush into particles if they so desire.

I'm not even a Packers fan. Just tired of hearing apologists for this mediocre team. Hope they lose by 1000

God, Manning is completely useless if there's a Packer within 10 yards of him

He'll own an NFL turnover record soon enough.

I like how the Defense sucked for 14 weeks and suddenly figured out how to play just in time to make the playoffs.

Fuck that. No need to repeat 2007. I hope the Giants are jet lagged next week and Eli gets picked off 6 times in a 42-14 blowout loss.

May the better team win.

the better team won.

 

[LuckyNumber7]

Well my playoff tournament is officially the worst bracket ever.

And I randomly decided forfeiting the Giants was a fair move for being an hour late.

 

[PhilsFan]

I cannot say I was surprised. The general tide of the week was the Packers will win to the Giants could make it close to the Giants could squeak it out to the Giants will win this to wait a minute, this is the Packers to obviously everyone overrated the Giants and the Packers will win. Which means the Giants went from underdogs to overrated and back to underdogs within one week.

 

[LemonMelon]

I must not be explaining myself well. I'm saying SF had, and will be playing well. They're good. The team overcame adversity in the 4th quarter by retaking the lead twice, so that's definitely in Smith and the 49ers' favor.

But an element of their success has also been some luck at turnover recovery. That's made Alex Smith, good 2011 QB, look like Alex Smith, great 2011 QB. When I'm picking a playoff game, I want to be confident that the QB could lead his team back from a big multiple-possession deficit. Yeah, Alex Smith has done that this year (....against the Eagles. Does that count?), but against Tom Brady on a neutral field?

So I think we're not necessarily disagreeing, but I'm using the TO ratio as a proxy for arguing that Smith needs to overcome a bit more adversity before I'd be in his camp.

If we're specifically discussing Alex Smith, the best I can say for the guy is that he doesn't screw up. And when he is developing a dangerously talented group of skill position players around him (Davis, Crabtree, Gore), that matters a great deal. Guess you could use the Trent Dilfer parallel to explain his success, but if a team like the 2000 Ravens can still win the Super Bowl in this newfangled league, I do feel that the 49ers are every bit as explosive. Maybe that makes this 14-3 underdog just as qualified? I'm not sure that Ravens team ever could have won a game in such an aggressive fashion, although they probably wouldn't have given up 32 points. Maybe half that.

I want to say that Alex Smith is a liability, as I've called him a bum for years and am being proven wrong, but it looks like I was. I'm not saying he's a prodigious talent, but it's fair to say he's not a choke artist. That was a win Romo never could have pulled out, even with a better offense. I do think the Super Bowl is a different matter, away from his home field, but I'm not actually worried about Alex Smith throwing the game away. He's a solid QB, and I trust in not only his consistency, but in the explosiveness of like 1/3 of their offense. It should be enough, if the defense keeps providing turnovers. So I guess I agree with you: without the turnovers, this team probably would struggle. But they have enough playmakers that I don't worry too much about Alex Smith's averageness.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

haters gonna hate

 

[joerags]

The Giants are winning the Super Bowl.
There is no debate. The Giants are winning the Super Bowl. It is 100 percent definite.

This thread can now be closed.

 

[LemonMelon]

I cannot say I was surprised. The general tide of the week was the Packers will win to the Giants could make it close to the Giants could squeak it out to the Giants will win this to wait a minute, this is the Packers to obviously everyone overrated the Giants and the Packers will win. Which means the Giants went from underdogs to overrated and back to underdogs within one week.

This week, the media will keep it simple and do what they know: hype the Patriots.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

The Giants are winning the Super Bowl.
There is no debate. The Giants are winning the Super Bowl. It is 100 percent definite.

This thread can now be closed.

49ers, patriots and ravens are very tough. there is doubt... but i'm starting to bELIeve.

 

[Hewson]

Rematch of SB 42?

 

[LemonMelon]

I hope not.

Tom Petty played the most boring gig of his life

 

[Hewson]

Tom Petty played the most boring gig of his life

And I stayed in my seat for it in lieu of a trip to the concession stand...in hindsight a very poor choice.

 

[joerags]

49ers, patriots and ravens are very tough. there is doubt... but i'm starting to bELIeve.

The Giants are way better than those three teams. It's not even close.

The 49ers play in a weak division. The Giants should have beaten them during the season. And they will in the rematch, just like they did vs. the Packers.

The Giants already beat New England. The Giants have New England's number. The Giants are in New England and Tom Brady's head.

The Ravens were lucky to beat the Texans, who killed themselves with that fumble on a punt and Yates' bad interceptions.

Trust me. The Giants are winning the Super Bowl.

DON'T DOUBT.

 

[LemonMelon]

And I stayed in my seat for it in lieu of a trip to the concession stand...in hindsight a very poor choice.

I love Petty and, frankly, I'm not sure if the first half of that game or Free Fallin' was more dull.

This year, Lucille Bluth pole dancing should make the decision simpler.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

The Giants are way better than those three teams. It's not even close.

The 49ers play in a weak division. The Giants should have beaten them during the season. And they will in the rematch, just like they did vs. the Packers.

The Giants already beat New England. The Giants have New England's number. The Giants are in New England and Tom Brady's head.

The Ravens were lucky to beat the Texans, who killed themselves with that fumble on a punt and Yates' bad interceptions.

Trust me. The Giants are winning the Super Bowl.

DON'T DOUBT.

Yea... I'm not doubting, I just know anything can happen in sports and don't want to go out doing crazy things like guarantee victory.

The Giants have as good a shot as anyone to bring it all home. But they still have to go out and do it against some very good teams. In no way are the giants far and away better than everyone left. I'm very confident, but in no way will this be easy.

 

[corianderstem]

You're crazy. Joe has declared it to be so.

CLOSE THE THREAD!

 

[mobvok]

Reminds me of a classic Onion Headline: "Consumer Confidence Verging On Cockiness"

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

 

[corianderstem]

I'm mostly over my anguish, so now I may say:

Congrats, Giants.

 

[PhilsFan]

Oh man, I hope the Giants lose next week, solely because of this Joe customer.

 

[LemonMelon]

I'll send Jim Harbaugh his posts.

 

[I Move in Mysterious Ways]

The Pack really looked like a Mike Sherman-era playoff team - just completely out of steam in the postseason. But hey, at least the Giants fan a few seats away got arrested! So I feel a bit better.

Giants were the better team tonight, and Green Bay if going to have a whole offseason to figure out how their defense went from one of the best to one of the worst.

Also, I don't want to see Grant or Finley on this team next season. We did just fine without their dumbasses last year.

 

[Outsider]

But hey, at least the Giants fan a few seats away got arrested! So I feel a bit better.

Sorry that went the way it did. I admit I'm an Eli fan but I really was nervously looking forward to a packers/49ers rematch. It's been too long since SF was a contender

 

[GirlsAloudFan]

It's all so beautiful.

 

[I Move in Mysterious Ways]

Says the guy whose team crapped their collective pants weeks ago

 

[speedracer]

Well, the GAFfer's bold gambit of assigning the Packers one point in the playoffs pool has put him in a commanding lead.