ThatGuy said:
STING, you're citing the Gallup poll while ignoring the ABC/Washington Post poll and the Newsweek poll, both of which showed a bounce and put Kerry in the lead. Also, Zogby and the Wall Street Journal have done their own respective electoral vote analyses and those show a bounce that put Kerry firmly in the lead.
http://www.electoral-vote.com/
Over the years, I have found Gallup to be by far the most reliable polling organization. I'm not saying that because these current polls show something positive for the Republicans. I'm saying that based on what I have seen over the years in terms of predicting victory for various candidates in all races as well as the margin of victory.
There was no bounce in the Gallop poll for Kerry and in fact he lost a point. The "bounces" from other polls were typically around 5 points on average which is small and almost within the margin of error still.
But I will agree that in an election that is this tight, it is all about the electoral college. Kerry does not have an easy win there at all by any means, but it is true that if the election were held today based on the combined polls in the 10 toss up states, Kerry would win the election.
Most States that voted Republican or Democrat in 2000 are going to do the same in 2004, with a few exceptions. It appears that the Republicans have almost lost Ohio and could lose Missouri. If the Republicans could have just kept those two States closer to them, there would be nothing the Democrats could do.
But, Missouri is still the closest race in the country currently at 48% to 48%. If the Republicans can keep Missouri and pick up Iowa(where they have a 46% to 45% lead) and Minnesota(where they are behind 48% to 45%), then they can win the election.
I actually think they will pick up Missouri and Iowa, the question is Minnesota.
If the Republicans take Minnesota, then it will be a 275 electoral votes for Bush and 263 votes for Kerry. If the reverse happens it will be 273 electoral votes for Kerry and 265 votes for Bush.