MERGED-->FYM Election Poll

[verte76]

I really don't care what the Pew Poll is saying these days, considering the fact that the election is more than two months off. There's the RNC next week, then the debates, and only then the election. The Pew Poll does show that Kerry is leading Bush 51% to 45% in the Catholic community. The U.S. is 28% Catholic.

 

[STING2]

116 votes in the Electoral College will be extraordinarily difficult to make up in the next 3 months, what with the extremely vast majority of voters already decided.

Well, now that Bush is only 37 electoral votes from victory in this electoral-vote.com results and the start of the Republican convention is not for another week, what do you have to say about it being extraordinarily difficult to make up such ground?

Also note that the number of states that are voting strongly for Bush, results in 142 votes. Kerry's strong vote catagory only gives him 87. Another bad trend for Kerry is that 153 of his electoral votes are only going "barely" for him according to electoral-vote.com.

With Kerry's previous position have already fallen so far down hill in electoral-vote.com, it will be interesting to see what the results look like following the 4 day Republican convention in New York City.

If electoral-vote.com is correct, this election is shaping up to be the closest election in history, unless of course the Republicans succeed in getting a normal bounce from their convention which the Democrats failed to get for Kerry.

For those still claiming there was a Kerry bounce, where is it? I can't believe Bush is only behind by 3 points in California now!

 

[verte76]

One tricky thing about polls is that they don't really tell how much support is "soft", or potentially transient in nature, and how much of it is "hard", which means it's more or less permanent. Voter X may be "leaning" toward one candidate but hasn't ruled out changing their vote before the election. They may tell a pollster that they are going to vote for Candidate X, and then change their mind. There has been controversy this year over how much of the electorate is "soft" and how much of it is "hard". Another factor is how they choose "likely voters". There's quite a bit of controversy over this as well. There is so much discrepancy between the various polls that it's hard for me to trust any of them.

 

[beegee]

i was undecided until kerry spoke in nevada and addressed the issue of yucca mountain.

 

[STING2]

Does anyone here know how the election would be decided if there was an electoral tie Bush 269 to Kerry 269? This is technically possible as there are only 538 available electoral votes.

 

[nbcrusader]

In case of a tie, the vote goes to the House of Representatives.

 

[STING2]

This is Amazing! We now have 25 people here at FYM voting for George Bush. Just over 30%!

 

[pub crawler]

I think that, come November, I'm going to vote for Bush just to throw Sting off a bit.

 

[cydewaze]

You guys can make all the predictions you want, but Bush will win in November. After all, his side controls most of the election machinery.

The corporations spend a lot of time and money getting their guy in office. Do you really think they're going to just hand it over?

 

[nbcrusader]

Have you missed Kerry's fundraising machine? There are plenty of corporations, unions and trial lawyers looking for control as well....

 

[ThatGuy]

I think cydewaze was referring to companies like Diebold.

Anyway, a new poll out from that liberal rag The Economist:
http://www.economist.com/media/pdf/YouGovH.pdfl

 

[ThatGuy]

Was no one going to tell me that I screwed up the link?

http://www.economist.com/media/pdf/YouGovH.pdf

 

[nbcrusader]

Kerry Raised $233 Million, Most Ever for a Democrat

Old myths fade away.....

 

[ThatGuy]

From July 24th

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A10265-2004Jul23.html

Excerpt:

To understand the Kerry money machine, The Washington Post interviewed many of his chief fundraisers, campaign and party officials, political scientists, and donors themselves. It reviewed studies by watchdog groups and campaign finance Web sites, including the Center for Responsive Politics, Public Citizen and PoliticalMoneyLine. It also closely analyzed the background and contribution patterns of the chief fundraisers for Kerry -- the 263 campaign vice chairs who have collected at least $100,000 for his candidacy.

The analysis shows:

? Lawyers, especially trial lawyers, are the engine of the Kerry fundraising operation. Lawyers and law firms have given more money to Kerry, $12 million, than any other sector. One out of four of Kerry's big-dollar fundraisers is a lawyer, and one out of 10 is an attorney for plaintiffs in personal injury, medical malpractice or other lawsuits seeking damages.

? Much of the seed money for the Kerry presidential campaign was collected through donors to his Senate campaigns, including lobbyists with interests before two of the Senate committees on which Kerry serves: the Finance Committee and the Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee.

? Fueling Kerry's money surge havebeen credit card collections on the Internet, a technique pioneered by his onetime rival Howard Dean in 2003 but used with even greater success this year by the presumptive Democratic nominee. Kerry has been raising more than $10 million a month on the Internet, for a total of more than $65 million, compared with $8.7 million for Bush in the past year, according to officials with both campaigns.

? Kerry appears to have succeeded in creating a new class of donors for the Democratic Party. Dozens of his fundraisers are relative neophytes in big-money politics and have not been active in making their own contributions. A review of federal campaign contributions of the big Kerry fundraisers shows that one-third of them have not made more than $20,000 in campaign contributions since 1990.

? Kerry's donor base is overwhelmingly bicoastal. Almost half of the big-money fundraisers hail from either California or New York. Seventeen of the fundraisers are from Kerry's home of Massachusetts. Kerry has substantially outraised Bush in California and New York, $39.7 million to $28.5 million; Bush has crushed the Democrat in Florida and Texas, $36 million to $8 million.

 

[A_Wanderer]

You call Kerrys presidential fundraising good, the man raised 500 million just by saying I do!

 

[BVS]

You call Kerrys presidential fundraising good, the man raised 500 million just by saying I do!

And W earned his by being born.

 

[A_Wanderer]

Actually W is poor compared to Kerry. This is all moot though, rich men become president its as simple as that. The office also attracts wierdo's and workaholics. Power is like a bug zapper, plenty are attracted to it but only a few every get too close.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

still waiting for someone to give me a reason to vote for kerry besides the obvious "he's not bush."

 

[STING2]

116 votes in the Electoral College will be extraordinarily difficult to make up in the next 3 months, what with the extremely vast majority of voters already decided.

So what do you think about that now? Bush has yet to have his convention and already according to electoral vote.com its KERRY 270 BUSH 259 with 9 votes tied.

With the convention, Bush has the opportunity to take break out and take a significant lead over Kerry. I'm not saying for sure it will happen, but its an opportunity that Kerry no longer has.

 

[Danospano]

I have to say that if Bush wins, this country is nearer the end than I once suspected. There is no way he SHOULD win. Everything is stacked up against him: whether it's the economy (which I will continue to remind people is the worst since Herbert Hoover in the Great Depression) or the failed "war" in Iraq or the Unconstitutionality of his policies.

Yeah, he'll probably get a boost after the convention, but hopefully some (just SOME) of the protestors will negate the effect of Bush's propaganda. Did you see those nude protestors for AIDS, the Drop the Debt Campaigners. and the banner-waving rebels on the Plaza Hotel? Brilliant! Keep up the inspiring work!

 

[cydewaze]

Have you missed Kerry's fundraising machine? There are plenty of corporations, unions and trial lawyers looking for control as well....

The fundraising issue is pretty much moot. Two companies make a majority of the touch screen voting machines in use in this country, and both companies have extensive republican ties. There's no way to verify the machines' accuracy, and there's no paper trail.

All the money in the world won't help if the machine says you only got 30% of the votes.

 

[A_Wanderer]

Thats a little bit of tinfoil hat territory if you ask me, Republican cabal secretly rigging all of the voting machines to tip the election in Bush's favour?

 

[STING2]

I have to say that if Bush wins, this country is nearer the end than I once suspected. There is no way he SHOULD win. Everything is stacked up against him: whether it's the economy (which I will continue to remind people is the worst since Herbert Hoover in the Great Depression) or the failed "war" in Iraq or the Unconstitutionality of his policies.

Yeah, he'll probably get a boost after the convention, but hopefully some (just SOME) of the protestors will negate the effect of Bush's propaganda. Did you see those nude protestors for AIDS, the Drop the Debt Campaigners. and the banner-waving rebels on the Plaza Hotel? Brilliant! Keep up the inspiring work!

This idea that the economy is the worst economy since the Great Depression is simply grossly false.

Currently the unemployment rate is 5.5% which is the 5th lowest unemployment rate in the world. THE FIFTH LOWEST UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IN THE WORLD. Current GDP growth is higher than any other fully industrialized country in the world. Inflation has been at its lowest levels in decades. The United States currently has the 8th highest standard of living in the world according to the United Nations. The standards to deterimine economic success are on average better than they were in 1996 when Bill Clinton was re-elected President.

The Iraq war is a failure? Where is the regime of Saddam today? Whare is Saddam's 400,000 man military? The war accomplished its goals and is in the process of one of the greatest transformations of any country in history. 25 million people are free from the rath of one of the worst dicators in history. The Planets energy supply is more safe and secure than it has ever been. When was the last time people in Iraq had the opportunity to freely elect their leaders? Watch what happens this January in Iraq.

I actually think the protestors will help Bush. When people see the radicalism that John Kerry is attached to, it could very well turn people off to him. Why can't a political party hold a convention without people tearing up the city and trying to disrupt the convention and other peoples lives? Let people of different political stripes hold their rally's or conventions in peace without all this conflicting dung.

 

[verte76]

It's a mistake to assume that the protestors are allied with Kerry or the Democrats. I think perhaps the Republicans would like people to think so, but that's a false assumption. Many of these people don't like Kerry's position on Iraq. Some of the people who supported Kucinich in the primaries are going to vote for Nader or maybe even radicals like David McReynolds, a socialist. No doubt some of the protestors in New York will be McReynolds style radicals. They're demonstrating against Bush but certainly not for Kerry. Some local activists are supporting Kerry and some are not. The head of the local Peace group isn't supporting Kerry, and he thinks those of us who are are nuts. We even suspended meetings until after the general election because about half the group was going to Kerry meetings and functions on the nights the group was holding meetings. This pissed him off. So don't write Kerry's name all over the protestors, it's neither accurate nor fair.

 

[A_Wanderer]

http://communistsforkerry.com/ , its in the vein of protest warrior only a lot funnier, this is what I call great protesting

 

[Danospano]

This idea that the economy is the worst economy since the Great Depression is simply grossly false.

Currently the unemployment rate is 5.5% which is the 5th lowest unemployment rate in the world. THE FIFTH LOWEST UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IN THE WORLD. Current GDP growth is higher than any other fully industrialized country in the world. Inflation has been at its lowest levels in decades. The United States currently has the 8th highest standard of living in the world according to the United Nations. The standards to deterimine economic success are on average better than they were in 1996 when Bill Clinton was re-elected President.

The Iraq war is a failure? Where is the regime of Saddam today? Whare is Saddam's 400,000 man military? The war accomplished its goals and is in the process of one of the greatest transformations of any country in history. 25 million people are free from the rath of one of the worst dicators in history. The Planets energy supply is more safe and secure than it has ever been. When was the last time people in Iraq had the opportunity to freely elect their leaders? Watch what happens this January in Iraq.

I actually think the protestors will help Bush. When people see the radicalism that John Kerry is attached to, it could very well turn people off to him. Why can't a political party hold a convention without people tearing up the city and trying to disrupt the convention and other peoples lives? Let people of different political stripes hold their rally's or conventions in peace without all this conflicting dung.

1) According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics President Bush's economic poliicies and tax cuts for the rich cost the nation 1.8 million private-sector jobs and 2.7 million manufacturing jobs from January 2001 to June 2004. Bush is on track to be the first president since Herbert Hoover in the Great Depression to end his term with fewer jobs then when he started. Nearly two-thirds of the jobs created between August 2003 and May 2004 when the economy finally began adding some jobs, were in low and minimum-wage industries. That's the Bureau of Labor Statistics in July of this year.

2) The 'war' in Iraq didn't accomplish its goals. The goals were to make America more secure. The goals were not to liberate Iraqi freedom lovers, or to neccesarily depose of Saddum Hussein. Remember the goal was to get rid of Weapons of Mass Destruction? Ahh yes...that's right. We didn't accomplish our goal.

3) The protestors will help Bush? Only if the media and the Bush propaganda machine succeed to convincing the public that they're all deranged radicals. If I were in NYC I'd protest; it's my right and if I disapproved of Bush (which I do), I'd vocalize my opinion publicly...I have guts...I have passion on this issue...and I'm not deranged or radical. I'm simply an American who wants my reputation back, and to call me un-American, should you ever use that term, because I hate Bush's policies, are fightin' words, pilgrim .

 

[verte76]

If I lived in New York, I'd have a packed protest schedule. It's my right to protest against things I don't like. Protesting is as American as apple pie and motherhood. The purpose of these protests is not to disrupt the convention, but, rather, to express the views of millions of Americans all over the U.S. I mean, heck, would you pass up four days of free advertising?

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

i was sittin' at flannery's on 14th and 7th with a friend of mine... having a little extended happy hour, when cops in riot gear show up outside the bar... followed by about 5 thousand guys on bikes jetting down 7th avenue... blocking traffic, cursing at drivers who just wanted to get through the intersection... my friend and i left our drinks and stepped outside to observe. the cops put a red baracade across 7th to block the procession any further and start making arrests. bikers started going off down 14th either direction, yelling at the people outside the bar for "allowing this police state to continue by standing by as these pigs infringe on our rights!" i was a bit confused... since when was the right to break the law part of the constitution? we went back into the bar and watched from the window as more arrests were made and more bikes confiscated. this "protest" was written up alot the next day... and all the protesters who were interviewed said the police over-reacted and they infringed on our rights and yadda yadda yadda. i personally witnessed a lot of the police activity... all the police were doing was merely doing their job. they warned people that if they disobeyed traffic laws they were in danger of being arrested, and that's exactly what happened. there wasn't any batton swinging, no pepper spray, no rodney king like episodes... the only yelling going on was comming from the protesters... screaming that their rights were being violated. one guy on a bike started physicaly pushing away an officer, so the officer grabbed the guy by the arm while another officer took the man's bike. the "impartial" guys in the green hats with video cameras, who i happened to be standing right next to, started filming the incident, but not until after the man who was arrested had already struck the officer.

the right to protest is a beautiful thing... it's what makes this country great. but the right to protest doesn't give you the right to break the law. i have no problems with these huge protests, like the one marching through manhattan this afternoon. they have permits and every right to have their march... with my good buddy michael moore leading the pack, of course...

but i plea to these "rogue" protesters... the radical elements that are most certainly also here in new york this week... just think before you go and do whatever it is exactly that you plan on doing. before you shut down an intersection without a permit, just think that maybe all of the drivers that you're pissing off right now just happen to be undecided and most of all, don't be friggin stupid... keep it legal, keep it safe, and let the cops and emergency service workers do their jobs. believe it or not, they are there to protect you.

 

[STING2]

1) According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics President Bush's economic poliicies and tax cuts for the rich cost the nation 1.8 million private-sector jobs and 2.7 million manufacturing jobs from January 2001 to June 2004. Bush is on track to be the first president since Herbert Hoover in the Great Depression to end his term with fewer jobs then when he started. Nearly two-thirds of the jobs created between August 2003 and May 2004 when the economy finally began adding some jobs, were in low and minimum-wage industries. That's the Bureau of Labor Statistics in July of this year.

2) The 'war' in Iraq didn't accomplish its goals. The goals were to make America more secure. The goals were not to liberate Iraqi freedom lovers, or to neccesarily depose of Saddum Hussein. Remember the goal was to get rid of Weapons of Mass Destruction? Ahh yes...that's right. We didn't accomplish our goal.

3) The protestors will help Bush? Only if the media and the Bush propaganda machine succeed to convincing the public that they're all deranged radicals. If I were in NYC I'd protest; it's my right and if I disapproved of Bush (which I do), I'd vocalize my opinion publicly...I have guts...I have passion on this issue...and I'm not deranged or radical. I'm simply an American who wants my reputation back, and to call me un-American, should you ever use that term, because I hate Bush's policies, are fightin' words, pilgrim .

1) Bush took over an economy headed into recession, made sure that recession was as short as possible and put the economy back on the course towards recovery. Can you name the last president that accomplished all that in one term?

The Bureau of Labor Statistics does not track a new phenomenon in are economy which is the rise in new jobs through self employment. The Majority of the jobs that were initially lost have been regained and given that "self employment" is not tracked by the Bureau, Bush is finally in the net column on that ONE PARTICULAR STATISTIC!

The statistics that economist look at most often for the health of any particular country are; 1) the unemployment rate 2) Inflation 3) GDP growth.

The Unemployment rate is 5.5%. This is the 5th lowest unemployment rate in the world. It is one of the 6 lowest unemployment rates in the United States over the past 30 years. It is the same unemployment rate that got Bill Clinton re-elected as President in 1996.

Inflation has been at historic lows until just recently. The rise in inflation comes from the quick pace of economic growth.

The latest quarterly GDP growth rate is 4.8%. By contrast the average GDP growth rate in Europe is below 2%. Name a first world country with a faster GDP growth rate than the United States!

So by the most important economic factors and statistics, the economy is in great shape and will continue to improve. The Herbert Hoover comparisons are simply inaccurate. I can give you the unemployment statistics, inflation and GDP growth rates for Herbert Hoover if you would like. Those statistics show that these Herbert Hoover comparisons are totally absurd.

2) The #1 goal of the war in Iraq was to insure the VERIFIABLE DISARMAMENT of SADDAM as required by the 1991 Gulf War Ceacefire agreement and UN resolutions 678, 687, and 1441! With Saddam's regime destroyed or in captivity, please explain to me how the above goal was not accomplished?

3) Its everyones right to protest, but most of the groups in New York City that will get media coverage will be the one's that are the most radical. No one is going to cover the quiet protest 15 blocks from the convention center. The radicals are the ones that will get the limited air time, and because they are against Bush, most will assume they are foot soldiers for Kerry. Most Americans are more centered politically and do not identify with the political views of the protestors especially the radicals. That is why the protest does not benefit Kerry. Most Americans support peoples right to protest, but most also think that the a political party should be able to have a 4 day convention without having to deal with such a mess and other disruptions.

 

[STING2]

If I lived in New York, I'd have a packed protest schedule. It's my right to protest against things I don't like. Protesting is as American as apple pie and motherhood. The purpose of these protests is not to disrupt the convention, but, rather, to express the views of millions of Americans all over the U.S. I mean, heck, would you pass up four days of free advertising?

Why can't they have their protest after the convention or before the convention? Why can't a political party have a four day convention without having to deal with a potential mess like this? This just shows these protestors have no respect for people with different political views. This is their best attempt to shout down and drown the message of people which hold different political views of theirs. If I'm wrong, then why do they have to protest during the convention?

Not that I should complain though because the more viewers identify the protestors with Kerry(right or wrong) the more it will actually benefit Bush. As many have said in here before, winning in close political races is often about the right slogans and images. Coverage of radical protestors at the Republican convention benefits Bush and harms Kerry.