DaveC
Blue Crack Addict
Well some folks are saying ol' Fidel hasn't got too much time left.
I can't imagine that a transfer of power to someone new would be completely smooth.
Here are the situations as I can see them.
1) Fidel dies. He has appointed a successor and the successor immediately consolidates power.
2) Fidel dies. He has appointed a successor, but the successor does not consolidate his power, and an internal power struggle ensues within the Communist Party.
3) Fidel dies. He has appointed a successor, but the successor does not consolidate his power over the country, and a revolt ensues.
4) Fidel dies. He has not appointed a successor. The Communist Party as an entity keeps power, but an internal power struggle occurs within the Communist Party, and major upheaval results, finally ending with someone taking power.
5) Fidel dies. He has not appointed a successor. The Communist Party as an entity keeps power over the populace, but not the military. A military coup-d'état ensues and Cuba becomes a military junta.
6) Fidel dies. He has not appointed a successor. The Communist Party fails to secure power and a whole lot of factions fall into a civil war.
7) Fidel dies. He has not appointed a successor. The Communist Party fails to secure power. The US invades to implement democracy and fill the vacuum of power right next door.
Which do you think is the most plausible outcome? Or is it something different entirely?
I can't imagine that a transfer of power to someone new would be completely smooth.
Here are the situations as I can see them.
1) Fidel dies. He has appointed a successor and the successor immediately consolidates power.
2) Fidel dies. He has appointed a successor, but the successor does not consolidate his power, and an internal power struggle ensues within the Communist Party.
3) Fidel dies. He has appointed a successor, but the successor does not consolidate his power over the country, and a revolt ensues.
4) Fidel dies. He has not appointed a successor. The Communist Party as an entity keeps power, but an internal power struggle occurs within the Communist Party, and major upheaval results, finally ending with someone taking power.
5) Fidel dies. He has not appointed a successor. The Communist Party as an entity keeps power over the populace, but not the military. A military coup-d'état ensues and Cuba becomes a military junta.
6) Fidel dies. He has not appointed a successor. The Communist Party fails to secure power and a whole lot of factions fall into a civil war.
7) Fidel dies. He has not appointed a successor. The Communist Party fails to secure power. The US invades to implement democracy and fill the vacuum of power right next door.
Which do you think is the most plausible outcome? Or is it something different entirely?