Using the results of the 2000 election and 2004 election, there are 13 states where the margin of victory was 5 percentage points or less. These states will likely be the same states that will determine the outcome of the 2008 election. Some of these states only had that small a margin of victory in either 2000 or 2004, but most of the states had that margin of victory for the winner in both 2000 and 2004. I did not include Tennessee which was won by Bush in 2000 by less than 5 percentage points because it was the state that Al Gore was from and under normal circumstances would not be that close. Without Al Gore in the race in 2004, Bush won Tennessee by 14 percentage points.
Here are the 13 likely battleground states for the 2008 election, first the states that went Blue in 2004, and then the states that went red in 2004.
Blue battleground states:
Oregon
Minnesota
Wisconsin
Pennsylvania
New Hampshire
Michigan
Red battleground states:
Nevada
New Mexico
Missouri
Iowa
Ohio
Florida
Colorado
As for the evangelical vote for the Republican party, the vast majority of them are not present in significant numbers in the battleground states. There are some significant numbers in southern Missouri and northern Florida, but most of them live in states that are safe red in the bible belt.
It will be interesting to see individual state polls of the November match up, as opposed to the national polls.
Here are the 13 likely battleground states for the 2008 election, first the states that went Blue in 2004, and then the states that went red in 2004.
Blue battleground states:
Oregon
Minnesota
Wisconsin
Pennsylvania
New Hampshire
Michigan
Red battleground states:
Nevada
New Mexico
Missouri
Iowa
Ohio
Florida
Colorado
As for the evangelical vote for the Republican party, the vast majority of them are not present in significant numbers in the battleground states. There are some significant numbers in southern Missouri and northern Florida, but most of them live in states that are safe red in the bible belt.
It will be interesting to see individual state polls of the November match up, as opposed to the national polls.