I think the acting categories and Best Picture are a lock, but they were last year as well, so nothing's really changed. Last year's group as a whole was way more predictable when you went through all the categories.
I don't know where the hell you're getting this from, but you're wrong. Supporting Actress was certainly up for grabs, as Lawrence had won the Golden Globe and people were not sure if Lupita was going to take it.
Picture is another one that was up for grabs; while American Hustle didn't wind up winning a single award, it had a lot of nominations and won the Golden Globe for comedy/musical. No one was sure that 12 Years was going to win, especially considering it missed a couple Oscar nominations that people thought it should have (cinematography, original score). And people didn't think that it would take the top prize with only two other likely awards to go with it.
Gravity could have won Best Picture and no one would have been shocked.
There's an actual chance that Linklater doesn't win Best Director. Wes Anderson made a crowd-pleasing movie that was meticulously crafted and has done a lot of great work in the past. He could totally upset in the same way that Ang Lee rightfully won for Life of Pi.
I don't think these situations are the same, because Lee's film was considerably more mainstream, whereas I think Anderson is still a bit of a niche filmmaker. Some people are never going to be into his particular style. Plus, Lee's win was to many people a result of Affleck not being nominated, with the award having to go to someone who didn't direct the BP winner.
I do agree that Linklater isn't necessarily a shoo-in. While I can't speak to the quality of Boyhood as I still need to see it, many may feel his great achievement is in producing the thing, in terms of keeping the project afloat for so many years. He obviously got some great performances out of his actors as well, but perhaps Inarritu's direction will look more impressive to more people. Staging all of those extremely long takes is certainly not easy, and the film's ensemble was perfectly handled, maybe the best of the year.
I know not everybody is 100% gung ho as I am, but I honestly feel Grand Budapest is a real 100 times more satisfying and interesting than any of the other films nominated for best pictures ans I'm fucking thrilled Wes got a nod for direction because there wasn't even anyone else within proximity of the game with a fraction of the talent and wherewithal this year aside from PTA, particularly that dipshit Innaritu. Rah rah.
Yes, but that being said...
Did you see Birdman? I'm really not trying to be an asshole, but I haven't actually seen you write anything specific about the movie, just how much you loathe Innaritu as a director.
FWIW it's the only film I've seen of his and I've heard a lot of other people trash him while also saying Birdman is his only worthwhile film. Can't weigh on Innaritu himself but Birdman is a more than worthy Best Picture nominee.
I haven't but I've seen all his other films and have read enough to know it shares a lot fo the same qualities. He's a bad director.
Well, I think you're painting with too broad a brush. All of his films have featured stellar acting, from a young Garcia-Bernal and Luna in Amores Perros to veterans like Penn and Watts in 21 Grams (arguably career bests from both up to that point), an assortment of different nationalities and acting styles in Babel, and a single, powerful performance form Bardem in Biutiful.
Now, I didn't think much of him visually or formally up to this point, but I strongly disagree that it "shares a lot of the same qualities". It's jazzier and more self-aware (and self-deprecating) than anything else he's done. There are certainly preachy moments about art vs. commerce and the nature of criticism, selling out, etc., but it's never without another character taking the air out of another one's lofty pronouncements or navel-gazing.
It's easily his best film, and to write him off based on past films, especially with that cast and the wide raves it's received from various corners, would be presumptuous. That's not to say it's divisive, because it is, but that doesn't mean you'll hate it. Look at Glenn Kenny, who I consider one of the smartest film guys around.
In case you haven't read his review:
Some Came Running: The Invented Worlds Of "Birdman" And "Whiplash"