Yes, McCain was clearly ahead at one point until he got Roved in South Carolina. He never recovered.
I think both the Dems and Reps are obsessed with winning, so that's really neither here or there, concerning 2006.
I think McCain will need to move right to get the nomination, and his appeal is to the centrist/non-partisans, if you believe there are many of them left. When in fact, he's much more of a conservative than many believe, I think the public just likes his demeanor and his credentials, people don't really know his politics in general, they just know he goes on Leno, Letterman and SNL and everyone seems to like him.
If he doesn't move right, the wingers will tear him a new one, again.
I think the Republicans will defintely choose someone who is electable, but they also have a large base that needs to be appeased, just like the Dems. Kerry was a war vet that made him seemingly electable in a wartime, and yet he is an environmental stalwart, which appeased the lefties. The Reps will likely choose a true conservative, no matter what, they have a pool to choose from, the most electable of all those conservatives will get it. So I revert to what i said earlier, McCain, to win it, needs to move right. Rudy has ZERO chance.