Hypothetically speaking...
Let's say the third party share of the vote stays about the same as what we've seen in polling, ending up being around 10-15% of the electorate and preventing Trump or Clinton from reaching 50% of the popular vote.
Are the Clinton backers from the primaries seriously going to suggest if she loses that she was the Democrats' best shot? Or that she would have been a stronger choice than Bernie or Biden?
And I'm not bringing this up to open a can of worms or compare her to other candidates, but when you have a nominee as historically unlikable as Trump, and who would have to win the election with under 50% of the vote, it's clear that the argument can't be made that he's some truly strong candidate.
In fact, FiveThirtyEight argued today that two separate models of the economy would give the Democrat or Republican a slight edge depending on the model. In other words, Trump is trailing a generic Republican that would be slightly leading or barely behind at this point (for example, a Marco Rubio that wins the primaries would surely be leading Clinton in the polls right now given what we saw earlier in the year).
So, taking all of that into consideration, you're looking at a very flawed candidate in Hillary Clinton. And no, I'm not referring to her stances, personable issues, etc. I'm talking about her electability which is clearly terrible if she's been losing ground for the last month to Donald Trump of all people in spite of her built-in demographic and financial advantage.
So, maybe, just maybe, next time when some condescending assholes act like they know a thing or two about who has the best chance of beating the Republican nominee despite all the polling saying otherwise, we can call them out on their bullshit without even a need for a discussion. If Hillary Clinton somehow loses to Donald fucking Trump, every single one of her primary voters owes the rest of America a big apology.
To start, this hypothetical is unknowable. But there are some things that we could logically deduce would be the reality if Sanders won the nomination.
1. He was inevitably more popular during the primary than he would have been in the general election. More far left people are engaged in the primaries, and more centrists in the general.
2. His favorability would have gone down like everyone else once they get in the real election game. He was at 53% I believe in the primaries. Right now, Clinton is -10 in her favorablity, I can see Sander slipping to 0 to -5 easily.
3. He would have had to release his tax returns. And any reasonable person knows there is something in those returns that is NOT good.
4. And this is the biggest one - Sanders can't expand the map like Clinton.
Berniebots always talk about how Sanders would be winning in a "landslide" right now if he were the candidate. But theres a problem with their logic.
Sure, Bernie might have a more significant national lead (although Hillary leading by 6 over the past month is near historic highs for August)
AND Bernie may have led by higher margins in traditional blue states.
BUT
If he wins blue states by 14 and Clinton wins them by 7 - THAT doesn't change anything. A win is a win.
In reality, Clinton is putting more states in play than ever imagined.
NC, SC, Georgia, possibly Utah, Virginia is a done deal, CO is a done deal, solid in Florida and PA, Missouri within 1 point, Survey Monkey just put her +1 in TEXAS, and down 2 in MISSISSIPPI!!!
on the other hand, Sanders would probably have flipped Utah, Missouri and possibly Kansas? Three tiny states. I also think he would lose Florida to Trump. Which would wipe out all 3 of those flipped states.
Yet somehow, she's this disastrous candidate???
People get SO worked up by the media bullshit, where Clinton is persecuted for weeks about 1 faulty article that brought up questions of wrong-doing with the Foundation, yet admitted, nothing shows anything wrong actually happened.
But lets discuss for 5 weeks about what it LOOKS like, what COULD have happened, etc...
On the other hand - Trump Chickens out while talking to the Mexican Pres. Gets called out as a liar by Mexican Pres., Talks about how horrible black communities are to another all white audience in WA, Has a leaked memo showing that his trip to the black church has all the questions AND answers provided to him beforehand. He proceeds to address the congregation reading off a paper like a kidnapping victim reading a ransom note.
And to top it off, his Foundation is found to have made actual illegal contributions to the Florida AG (possibly others) to bribe her to drop a lawsuit against his fraudulent University.
And guess what - the media claims it's Trump that's had the GREAT WEEK!!
You can not make this shit up.