In Why Are They Still Running News?...
- Mike Huckabee has vowed to call it a day if he doesn't finish in the top three in Iowa. Unfortunately, that means he'll likely be around until Iowa.
- The next Republican debate will be broadcast on Fox Business on January 14th. The criteria to qualify for the main debate is that you're either A) in the top six nationally or B) in the top five in Iowa or New Hampshire.
This would mean:
Main Debate (6): Bush, Carson, Christie, Cruz, Rubio, Trump
Undercard Debate (4): Fiorina, Huckabee, Kasich, Paul
Gilmore, Pataki and Santorum aren't even consistently polling at 1% nationally in order to qualify for the kiddie debate. Also, Rand Paul has vowed to not participate in the undercard debate and may well close up his campaign if he's relegated to that one.
Campaigns That Should Be Dead After Iowa If Voting Were Today (6): Fiorina, Gilmore, Huckabee, Pataki, Paul, Santorum
Campaigns That Should Be Dead After New Hampshire If Voting Were Today (2): Carson, Kasich
Christie would need to do exceptionally well in New Hampshire in order to keep going. New Hampshire stops Carson in his tracks after two underwhelming states because New Hampshire lacks the evangelical voters he needs (and now lacks in general). Kasich's eggs are all-in on New Hampshire with little to show for it, so he would bow out after that state as well if not sooner.
That leaves us pared down to Trump, Bush, Rubio and Cruz barring a killer New Hampshire performance from Christie. Everybody else is literally rearranging deck chairs at this point as their fates are already decided.
Rubio and Cruz can go very deep with their campaign funds and potential ceilings. Trump continues until his support is clearly low enough that it's not worth wasting his own dime and time to continue. Bush can go on until the money runs out, but that will be sooner rather than later as he'll need to have a high burn rate if he actually wants to win. I guess you could list Super Tuesday as the cash-in date on Bush's death clock.