thelaj
Refugee
Here is some (US only) data:
from: Album sales in U.S. dropped 14% in 2008 - International Herald Tribune
NLOTH. Week 1
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Native_Son
Acrobat
when will the UK mids be published?
thelaj
Refugee
Incidentally, I ran some numbers based upon some sketchy predictions that basically implies the following:
in 2004, Bomb sold 840,000 copies first week.
in "2008", Horizon would need to sell 596,000 copies to equal that level of performance in the current climate.
This is based on a linear trend (which is flawed) that 2000 was base year (max sales) with index 100, and 2008 with an index of 55 (implying a 45% drop in sales).
cjboog
Refugee
Let's hope the continued TV appearances throughout the week will keep this baby going strong. I think it will have strong legs (from word of mouth) and couple potentially have a big hit single in "Magnificent" if they get it together!
doctorwho
Rock n' Roll Doggie VIP PASS
Even if NLOTH sold 1M copies this week, I was never a fan of stadiums given our current economic climate.
But we have to compare everything.
ATYCLB had the wildly successful "Beautiful Day" going for it, yet it still only managed 428K in its first week (in the U.S.). And U2 had a lot of promotion for that too, with pre-album mini-concerts.
What kept ATYCLB going was that "Beautiful Day" kept going. As GOYB doesn't appear to be that type of single, it behooves U2 to move quickly on single #2 (like, uh, NOW).
Still, 400-500K in sales is very good. Remember, Springsteen played half-time in the Super Bowl - the most watched show on earth. And he only generated a little over 200K in sales. Some felt that the Super Bowl performance would kick in on week 2 of the album's release, but instead the album saw about a 50% drop!
In other words, the economy (a huge factor - spend $10 to $100 on a CD (depending on the version) or save the $$, download for free, and maybe pay rent or buy food? Hmmm...), the fact that there was no ubiquitous commercial playing for weeks, and the fact that March is not post-Thanksgiving November all play a role.
Yes, Coldplay sold tons last year. I know. But the economy a year ago was better. And Coldplay had basically two first singles, the second becoming a big hit. Hit singles sell albums. Also, Coldplay is on the rise - U2's age does play a role here. We can't deny it.
So for a bunch of men nearing 50 to sell that amount in this type of economic environment in March is very impressive. And it's what many of us thought would occur. Plus, "Pop" sold only 357K its first week, and it had a Top 10 hit with "Discotheque" and a Top 30 hit with "Staring at the Sun". And there were no illegal downloads stealing away sales. So for NLOTH to perform better than "Pop" says a lot.
As for stadiums, again, even if the album was huge, I'm not sure U2 can sell out stadiums (excluding a few markets, like NYC, Chicago and Boston). In Europe, yes, but not throughout all of the U.S. I think it should be an arena tour in the U.S. unless U2 sees that the tour will support a stadium. Or perhaps a mix of arenas and stadiums.
cjboog
Refugee
GOYB is like #101 on the Hot 100 right now and is falling on almost every radio format in the US right now. It's time for Magnificent. It's already in the iTunes top 100 and it's not even been released yet.
Why? i bet the demand is still there to see them live.
The way I see it the general public at least at Itunes is digging Magnificent. It should be released ASAP and see if it catches on.
400-450k is not bad by any means esp for 2009. This proves U2 are still able to sell new music to the masses, even if Boots was a warhouse of a hit.
Looking at the Itunes rock charts U2 is dominating. NLOTH WAS MOS IGCIIDGCT SUC and Mag are all in the hot 100 as Boots
400-450k is not bad by any means esp for 2009. This proves U2 are still able to sell new music to the masses, even if Boots was a warhouse of a hit.
Looking at the Itunes rock charts U2 is dominating. NLOTH WAS MOS IGCIIDGCT SUC and Mag are all in the hot 100 as Boots
cjboog
Refugee
It's also #25 on the rock chart because of the stupid 2 edition breakdown. So overall Magnificent is probably a couple slots higher then #85 overall because there are two versions of the same song for sale.
cjboog
Refugee
Based on ONE DAY sales reports? How can you estimate what the album will sell in an entire week based on one day? I guess these guys probably know what they are doing but I wonder if the album will exceed their expectations during the week as the band continues to kick ass every night on Letterman. They should also get a surge in sales from being on the Daily Show and Good Morning America later in the week.
So I guess we should be careful to assume this is locked in stone...
I'm going to be an optimist and say it's not out of the realm of possibility that we could still see 500k in the first week.
I agree with you. Even if the album was huge, they still would have trouble selling out stadiums in the U.S. except for those markets you mentioned (and L.A.). I just think the first day sales should be a wake-up call to Paul McGuinness and Live Nation if they hope to mount a stadium tour. Having said all that, I think the numbers are solid given their age and lack of a hit single.
Clean187
The Fly
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They are really accurate at predicting. They take big media blitzes into account. If they say between 400-450, it will hit that....
doctorwho
Rock n' Roll Doggie VIP PASS
I'm confused by this.
Are you saying that there's a 45% drop in 2008 compared to 2000 or 2004?
If 2004, then 2009's NLOTH would be about 462K in sales - about right where it's headed (if one compares NLOTH's first week to 2004's HTDAAB's first week).
Of course, HTDAAB had holiday sales (which were huge - the album remained in the Top 5 for the entire holiday season, and if I recall, sold 200K+ each of those weeks). HTDAAB was released during a stronger economy. HTDAAB had the ubiquitous iPod/iTunes commercial featuring "Vertigo" which propelled sales. And HTDAAB had the wildly popular ATYCLB as well.
NLOTH has the very popular HTDAAB, but that wasn't quite as popular as ATYCLB (at least in terms of sales). Furthermore, U2's been out of the public eye a very long time (the little recordings here and there don't count much). And obviously March is not Thanksgiving or Christmas.
Still, if 2008 saw a 14% drop, and 2009 continues that trend, then 400-500K in sales may be one of the year's strongest first weeks. I'm sure Eminem will hit close to 1M and maybe Clarkson will get some solid numbers (not sure if her albums do as well as her songs, though). Will be interesting to see how the rest of the year goes.
But as I wrote previously, the fact that NLOTH's first week appears to be on pace to outsell "Pop's" first week(which didn't have to deal with illegal downloads) and possibly ATYCLB's first week (which had the very popular "Beautiful Day"), is impressive. Now it'll be interesting to see where total U.S. sales end as well as worldwide. Second and third singles will be critical here.
cjboog
Refugee
I'm sorry. I screwed that up. Apparently John Stewart (the Daily Show host) is a guest on Letterman this Thursday. I must have misread a story and assumed that U2 was on John Stewart's show Thursday
doctorwho
Rock n' Roll Doggie VIP PASS
They make predictions, but sometimes are off.
And their final numbers are often quite different from that of SoundScan/Billboard. Once in a while, in a "close race", sometimes they flip too (that is, Billboard's #1 or #2 may be different).
In general though, the range and number is accurate. HITS Daily Double still tends to use the old-fashioned way of reporting (i.e., like in the 80's), awaiting word from various stored. Billboard relies on SoundScan, so sometimes there is an increase with SoundScan that HITS doesn't see.
thelaj
Refugee
I'm confused by this.
Are you saying that there's a 45% drop in 2008 compared to 2000 or 2004?
If 2004, then 2009's NLOTH would be about 462K in sales - about right where it's headed (if one compares NLOTH's first week to 2004's HTDAAB's first week).
Of course, HTDAAB had holiday sales (which were huge - the album remained in the Top 5 for the entire holiday season, and if I recall, sold 200K+ each of those weeks). HTDAAB was released during a stronger economy. HTDAAB had the ubiquitous iPod/iTunes commercial featuring "Vertigo" which propelled sales. And HTDAAB had the wildly popular ATYCLB as well.
NLOTH has the very popular HTDAAB, but that wasn't quite as popular as ATYCLB (at least in terms of sales). Furthermore, U2's been out of the public eye a very long time (the little recordings here and there don't count much). And obviously March is not Thanksgiving or Christmas.
Still, if 2008 saw a 14% drop, and 2009 continues that trend, then 400-500K in sales may be one of the year's strongest first weeks. I'm sure Eminem will hit close to 1M and maybe Clarkson will get some solid numbers (not sure if her albums do as well as her songs, though). Will be interesting to see how the rest of the year goes.
But as I wrote previously, the fact that NLOTH's first week appears to be on pace to outsell "Pop's" first week(which didn't have to deal with illegal downloads) and possibly ATYCLB's first week (which had the very popular "Beautiful Day"), is impressive. Now it'll be interesting to see where total U.S. sales end as well as worldwide. Second and third singles will be critical here.
Good post.
45% drop from 2000 to 2008. I linearly interpolated the drop-per-year on that basis (though this is obviously false as 2007-to-2008 saw a 14% drop).
Of course this fails to take into account economic conditions and the release of the previous two albums during gift buying season.
>450,000 would be a good performance for this record, everything else considered. I would be VERY surprised if Eminem gets near to 1m - I predict around 600k-700k
thelaj
Refugee
vaz02
Rock n' Roll Doggie ALL ACCESS
South America = Salt of the earth
BoyOnTheHorizon
Refugee
Where is the source on the brazilian sales?
Native_Son
Acrobat
only #3 in finland, the last 3 albums have all been #1 there.
CosmoKramer
Rock n' Roll Doggie
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Opened up at # 3 on the Mediatraffic worldwide sales (100,000 sold). As mentioned in the front page "article", this was based on only two countries France and Japan and only a couple of days at that...right?
And so it begins....... http://www.mediatraffic.de/
And so it begins....... http://www.mediatraffic.de/
NLOTH debuts at #3 on the Global Album chart...narrowly missing a #2 debut...and considering that the album was not released everywhere until this week may bode well for a big debut next week...
Boots up to #24 on the Global Track Chart as well.
Boots up to #24 on the Global Track Chart as well.
CosmoKramer
Rock n' Roll Doggie
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zoocarolina
Refugee
It's so hard to compare years even with stats bc I don't know what type of factor that you could apply with this recession, U2 would have had to put a record during the great depression to compare!! I think they're doing quite well considering the time of the year as well, this will probably be about the same as HTDAAB which bands would kill for!! Who knows, if MAG gets them a #1 single, this could go mainstream!
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