DaveC
Blue Crack Addict
"many have mentioned" that diemen is a complete koke.
US Politics XV: Time to Mull Mueller Mania
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BVS
Blue Crack Supplier
You truly are obsessed with Candace Owens aren’t you?
You realize this reform was supported on both sides, and based on a watered down version submitted by Dem?!
You try desperately, but everyone sees you’re unequipped.
Moonlit_Angel
Blue Crack Addict
"You are so obsessed with Trump." Yeah, how dare people talk about Trump all the time! I mean, it's not like he's, y'know, the president, and this isn't a place to discuss politics, or anything.
Babydoll
Blue Crack Addict
You're*
On CNN this morning, they did a millionth take on "let's talk to real Americans in Scranton" to hear their political views.
Predictably, those who think the economy is doing great are voting for Trump and those who are concerned about the economy are not. And even more predictably, the Trump voters will still vote for Trump even if the economy goes to shit because "the economy is always up and down anyway." A view that they hold only when a Republican is in the White House.
Finally, and this is the important bit - not a single one of the Trump voters they spoke to is willing to consider ANY Democrat, including Joe Biden, born in Scranton, who, in their view, has gone "too far left" and is "too progressive."
So there you have it, what many have been saying all along. These people are lost causes and the obsession in some Dem circles to nominate a moderate to appeal to them is completely delusional. And as for independents - we all know who Trump is. If he disgusts you, you'll vote for anyone to get him out. If you still (secretly) like him, you'll vote for him. Prof. Bitecofer is totally right and has the numbers to support her view that the election will be about exciting the base. The Democrats have an inherently larger base, and for heaven's sake, give that base a reason to vote for something rather than the milquetoast middle-of-the-road approach that is not only cowardly, but literally appeals to almost nobody in a totally polarized populace.
Predictably, those who think the economy is doing great are voting for Trump and those who are concerned about the economy are not. And even more predictably, the Trump voters will still vote for Trump even if the economy goes to shit because "the economy is always up and down anyway." A view that they hold only when a Republican is in the White House.
Finally, and this is the important bit - not a single one of the Trump voters they spoke to is willing to consider ANY Democrat, including Joe Biden, born in Scranton, who, in their view, has gone "too far left" and is "too progressive."
So there you have it, what many have been saying all along. These people are lost causes and the obsession in some Dem circles to nominate a moderate to appeal to them is completely delusional. And as for independents - we all know who Trump is. If he disgusts you, you'll vote for anyone to get him out. If you still (secretly) like him, you'll vote for him. Prof. Bitecofer is totally right and has the numbers to support her view that the election will be about exciting the base. The Democrats have an inherently larger base, and for heaven's sake, give that base a reason to vote for something rather than the milquetoast middle-of-the-road approach that is not only cowardly, but literally appeals to almost nobody in a totally polarized populace.
womanfish
Rock n' Roll Doggie ALL ACCESS
While this is interesting, I find it is pretty much opposite of what we see in the underlying evidence of a whole host of polls that have been done. I think these group discussions are much less reliable, as human nature is to sort of "go along" with the group narrative. Polls done anonymously of just a single individual, you are going to get a more real answer.
This is where things stand right now.
Trump has lost the support of 33% of White Women without college degrees from 2016.
He is now behind with White Men with college degrees - down 10 points
Support from white women with degrees has dropped 27 points!!!
Even his strongest support - White men without degrees has dropped almost double digits
Registered women voters overall now support a Dem candidate over Trump 62 to 30%!!! That is a drop in support from women of 19 points from 2016.
Fox News poll specifically asked people who dislike both Trump and Biden. 45 to 10 they said they would vote Biden.
Polls in MI, WI, and MN asked - Does Trump deserve to be reelected?
Results were all similar from all states around 36 to 38% yes, 52 to 54% No.
We have already seen proven results, that moderate voters in suburbs were where the most gains were made in the 2018 midterms.
What you are missing is the motivation this time around for exciting the base. This time, it isn't about needing bold new ideas. This time its about beating Trump, plain and simple. It's the top priority of Dem voters when polled by double digits.
Getting Trump out IS what will bring people to the polls. Whether someone wants a public option or Medicare for all is not the issue this time around.
All that said, I have been so impressed with Warren. She is working hard and just has a good mix of connecting with voters and laying out specific plans. Unfortunately I think she would struggle in the general more than some others. But again, if she is the nominee, i do think that there just is a built in drive for all Dems this time to go to the polls no matter what, because our future depends on it.
Not our future of free child care or Medicare for all. But our basic future as a country and Democracy.
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There comes a time where a spade has to be called a spade. If that makes me a koke, so be it.
Trump is a national and international embarrassment. That most Republicans have decided that getting their policies rammed through is worth the damage he is inflicting on our nation is a reflection of their lack of moral conviction. A Republican Party with a spine would have come up with a viable candidate to challenge this disaster as soon as they saw that he wasn’t going to magically “change with the office” once he got it. A Republican Party with a spine would do its best to distance itself as far as possible from this train wreck of a man and administration.
I really couldn’t care less that you or the other MAGA forum members think I’m a koke. Look at what you and your party have become. That’s the real joke.
Trump is a national and international embarrassment. That most Republicans have decided that getting their policies rammed through is worth the damage he is inflicting on our nation is a reflection of their lack of moral conviction. A Republican Party with a spine would have come up with a viable candidate to challenge this disaster as soon as they saw that he wasn’t going to magically “change with the office” once he got it. A Republican Party with a spine would do its best to distance itself as far as possible from this train wreck of a man and administration.
I really couldn’t care less that you or the other MAGA forum members think I’m a koke. Look at what you and your party have become. That’s the real joke.
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So is Trumps tweet this morning more offensive to Jews or Christians?
King of Israel, second coming of Christ ?
Every day we see whatever is left of his mental ability deteriorate.
And no one who’s in power will do anything but tweet. Pelosi “prays” that Trump will get Moscow Mitch to open the senate. Really????
Oh and while all this madness is playing out on the social media / world stage, this admin has done the following
Request to hold immigrant children and families indefinitely
Deny flu shots to immigrants in the camps.
The cruelty isn’t the point anymore, it’s death
King of Israel, second coming of Christ ?
Every day we see whatever is left of his mental ability deteriorate.
And no one who’s in power will do anything but tweet. Pelosi “prays” that Trump will get Moscow Mitch to open the senate. Really????
Oh and while all this madness is playing out on the social media / world stage, this admin has done the following
Request to hold immigrant children and families indefinitely
Deny flu shots to immigrants in the camps.
The cruelty isn’t the point anymore, it’s death
Irvine511
Blue Crack Supplier
All this from one now cliche CNN diner-in-Trump-country segment?
i think the push behind Biden isn't so much that he's going to win over forgotten Joe Lunchpail, but that he won't frighten the suburban voters with educations and incomes who broke Democrat in 2018, the kind of voters who will very much be scared off by SOCIALISM and FREE HEALTH CARE FOR ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS and ultimately vote based on their bottom line (at least the men do ... their wives are already likely super uncomfortable with racist President Sexual Assault already).
Biden represents the center of the party, not so much the man-from-Scranton. and he was also on the ticket that some Trump voters voted for twice.
i'm agreeing a lot with womanfish. my heart is being won by Warren, and that may be enough. we'll see. it would be the most wonderful poetic justice of all for a woman to destroy the Hog Emperor of Rape Culture. but if the motivation for the base is the removal of Trump, and Biden is seen as the best bet of that happening, then Biden becomes the motivation for the base. it's circular self-reinforcing, but it might also be what the reality on the ground really is, and right now, the polls support that. but it's early! i'm very curious to see how Warren will go after Biden in the debates -- to me, that will be instrumental in who i ultimately vote for.
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This has been repeated a lot of times, regardless of how true it is.
https://www.salon.com/2019/08/17/th...d-the-2018-blue-wave-heres-her-2020-forecast/
Yes, I'm just that ignorant and naive.
But back to Bitecofer - her analysis (all available on her site) is pretty clear - the Dem candidate really doesn't matter because the motivation to get the offending buffoon is so strong that it will get people to the polls. IF that is the case, then why not have a candidate who actually stands for something bold and progressive instead of one who seems like he's 30 years late to the party.
Irvine511
Blue Crack Supplier
https://twitter.com/davidmackau/status/1164217774564159488?s=19
Let us pray to our lord and savior gzus trump, who i don't actually like it's you guys who are obsessed with him i'm but a conservative independent free thinker trying to free you all from your liberal echo chamber
amen
Let us pray to our lord and savior gzus trump, who i don't actually like it's you guys who are obsessed with him i'm but a conservative independent free thinker trying to free you all from your liberal echo chamber
amen
I think that you're smart enough to know that the discussion is limited to individuals with at least a snowball's chance in hell of capturing the nomination. The reason Tulsi Gabbard, and a dozen others, are polling at 0-2% on a good day is because they aren't saying anything that is catching on and/or nobody likes them.
And I think that you vastly simplify matters when you say I just want the candidate to my liking to be the nominee. I have always said that ideologically (and I'd add temperamentally) that would be Elizabeth Warren. But should she not win, I would rather have essentially ANYONE else polling above the dreadful 2-3% other than Joe Biden. I have reservations about all of them, but I'd rather see Buttigieg, Harris, Castro, Booker, Yang, even Bernie.
womanfish
Rock n' Roll Doggie ALL ACCESS
From Vox:
When all was said and done, 2018 was not the year of the winning progressive Democrat.
Moderate Democratic candidates were the big winners of swing congressional districts in the 2018 midterm elections, flipping most of the 28 key House districts from Republicans’ control and winning key gubernatorial races, including Michigan, Wisconsin, Kansas, and Illinois.
(side note, this was before the total seats climbed to 40, most of those close races that took time to call were moderate heavy, including several red districts that flipped to blue)
Progressive candidates flipped few of those seats. For the most part, the biggest upsets for the left occurred during the summer primaries; most of those districts were already blue and primed to elect Democrats. Many of the left-wing candidates who tested the theory of turning out their base, even in more conservative districts, lost on election night.
This morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that the job figures were going to be revised down by approximately 501,000 in January 2020. This is going to put a huge dent in his "strong economy" platform.
Therefore he has gone next level crazy with his ranting and raving to distract us all.
Irvine511
Blue Crack Supplier
If the most important thing is to remove Trump from office, and if Biden is the best suited to do that job based on the electorate we have, why would you want other candidates who are less likely to win the general?
womanfish
Rock n' Roll Doggie ALL ACCESS
totally agree with your reply here. I feel like we are starting to get into the Clinton derangement syndrome, getting shifted over to Biden.
remember when Clinton got branded by Bernie supporters "lesser of two evils" or some would even go so far as to say WORSE than Trump? #neverhillary
And we are all paying now because of that sort of thinking.
Because I'm not convinced that he IS the best.
I don't think that he's mentally sharp and in fact I think that his mental decline is pretty obvious. I don't think he'd do well in a debate against Trump at all. I don't think that he has the discipline to not say dumb things for another year and a half almost, which shouldn't matter at all given the idiot he is up against, but there is a massive double standard and left-leaning voters are not sheeple like the right. I don't think that he has surrounded himself with the best campaign staff - a number of other campaigns are beating him in their ground game and massively beating him in online fundraising and social media adeptness. And beyond all that, I just have a poor gut feeling about the way the media would portray him - it would be as if suddenly you have two "gaffe-prone" individuals running against one another, when in reality Trump is a complete lunatic. But he's more obviously a lunatic when compared to somebody who is as measured and articulate, as say Pete Buttigieg.
That's honestly pretty low and ridiculous.
Especially given that Biden appears to not have the support of roughly 70% of primary voters at the moment.
Irvine511
Blue Crack Supplier
I take all these points and share some of your concerns, but there is ample polling evidence at this early stage of the game that he is so far the candidate beating Trump by the most in the polls, and especially in polls of the battlefield states. Many of the 2%ers will find their support going to Biden when they drop out.
I think there’s another fundamental question here. Do we play it safe and view the end of Trump as the only goal, or do we view this as an opportunity to nominate the most progressive person possible given that (all 2016 PTSD aside) Trump is a horrible candidate who looks increasingly likely to lose no matter the D nominee?
I think it’s a real question.
DaveC
Blue Crack Addict
ding ding ding we have a winner folks!
womanfish
Rock n' Roll Doggie ALL ACCESS
Not really sure i see the point here. These are probably some of the strongest primary numbers one could see at this point in a field this large. At this point in 2016, Trump sat WAY ahead of the field at 22%.
This means Bernie doesn't have the support of 85% of the voters, and Harris 91%, Pete 95%...
And I think we've seen that gaffe's just aren't what they used to be. Biden has had a few already and polling from late June til now, he has gone up 7 points and Harris went down 12. It shows that there isn't an appetite for attacking within the party so much this time around.
I like other candidates as well, and have made said that Biden could very well destruct himself along the way during the primary. I think if Warren passes him in the polls, then Biden will not recover. Warren is set up well in the first primary states. Who knows what will happen.
But I still don't think that WI, MI, and PA would do better with any other candidate compared to Biden. Pick a smart running mate and i really think we would be looking at a Trump ass-whooping.
DaveC
Blue Crack Addict
the implication that she has some sort of "derangement syndrome" just because she was giving a measured and well-reasoned critique of the candidate you like was definitely uncalled for.
Irvine511
Blue Crack Supplier
In fairness, I don’t think it was specifically targeted at anyone in here. I mean, I was point blank called a bad person for even considering voting for Biden. I see none of that from womanfish.
I’m getting a little tired of the Never Biden crowd in the liberal stuff I read. It’s uncomfortably reminiscent of the purity crowd who fell for the same bullshit in 2016. I’m all for a vigorous primary and right now feel open to at least 3-5 of these candidates. But the second a Nader or a Stein or a Bernie-or-Bust crowd begins to form, fuck that.
Popmartijn
Blue Crack Supplier
Yes. High risk, with some reward. As compared to lower risk and also some reward.
But I'm not sure if the reward with a more progressive candidate is higher (should that candidate win the election and become president). For legislation to pass you need to have control of the House and (especially) Senate as well. I'm not sure if (hypothetically) Warren with a 51-person Senate majority would achieve more progressive legislation than Biden with a 56-person Senate majority.
DaveC
Blue Crack Addict
fair enough. i read it as a direct reaction to anitram's post but either way i'm sure she doesn't need me to speak for her any further.
Sure, but why set up this false dichotomy?
I suppose you can argue that downticket candidates will benefit but frankly I don't think that anyone is arguing or believes that D candidate X or Y would draw materially more people to the polls. So there is just about zero reason to believe that Biden would result in that many more Senate seats won. The Senate seats will be decided in 4-5 states, and none of the current frontrunners really play that much of a factor more than the other.
OP
OP
LuckyNumber7
Blue Crack Addict
The notion that Boe Jiden is clearly more likely to win the presidency versus Trump is the same logic that was used in 2016. How anyone can think that an echo of the Obama administration (with deeper established roots prior to that) can in any way be a sure thing is silly. Just splash in some “thanks joebama!” comments here or there.
We need something fresh.
We need something fresh.
My preference, at this point, is Buttigeg. I would prefer that anyone over the age of 70 be barred from holding the highest office in the land. The presidency is not some sort of lifetime achievement award for a job well done. I'd love it if both Biden and Bernie were to go the fuck away.
All that said - Biden is not Hillary. Hillary was a special case, as she drove out voters specifically to vote against her. Biden does not have that going against him.
And despite this decades long hate for Hillary, she still won the popular by millions and only lost the electorate by a total vote count that wouldn't fill most D1 college football stadiums.
In theory I agree with the idea that a progressive candidate has a better shot now than ever before because the alternative is a diaster of epic proportions.
I also fully understand the PTSD from 2016 and being afraid of putting forth a candidate that's so far to the left that it scares moderates back to Trump. And I don't know if that fear is overblown or valid - largely because I went into election day 2016 believing that we, as a nation, couldn't possibly be dumb enough to elect this fucking asshole.
Ultimately I think we need to remember that common sense doesn't necessarily apply to our elections, as a candidate can lose the popular vote by an overwhelming majority and still win the presidency if they thread the needle in a handful of states. So the candidate needs to be capable of winning those states.
Has Trump damaged himself enough between now and then to make the Ohio's and Pennsylvania's not matter? To anyone with a rational fucking thought in their head? Of course! Why are we having them s conversation? Throw the most left leaning candidate out there and they'll win just because they aren't Trump!
But for fucks sake what rational person would have felt that he didn't so enough to damage himself prior to November 9, 2016? So why would should I possibly believe that the democrats (who are horrifically bad, as an organization, at winning) will be able to just throw anyone out there and expect a win?
What scares me most about the shots at Biden by those on the left is that it makes me believe that if he wins the nomination, which is a distinct possibility, that many people will stay home. This abso-fucking-lutely can not happen - and I will never forgive any asshole who doesn't pull that left lever in November 2020 because it was Biden over one of the more left leaning candidates.
Sitting this one out, or voting third party, over the democratic candidate not being the one you prefer is a vote for Trump. Period.
And that goes for progressives against Biden just the same as it goes for moderates against Sanders. Any of the top democratic candidates are light years better than the status quo, and this needs to be recognized. This isn't a time to fuck around.
Something that Orgeferiperia - racist asshole that he was (and a big wave to our still current members who palled around and posted in threads here and on thedonald Reddit sub knowing what he really was... we remember, assholes) - still sticks with me to this day. He spoke of the lawn signs in exurban Pennsylvania being overwhelmingly for Trump being the reason why he felt Trump could pull it off.
He was laughed at.
He was right.
We can not fuck around here. The hidden Trump vote is still there. His approval numbers are the same as his polling numbers were in 2016. What should seem obvious to most is not.
This is the most important election in American history - and it absolutely must go the way of good and not the way of evil. There's no turning back if Trump wins a 2nd term. We will not recognize what's left of our nation if he does, if it isn't already too late.
All that said - Biden is not Hillary. Hillary was a special case, as she drove out voters specifically to vote against her. Biden does not have that going against him.
And despite this decades long hate for Hillary, she still won the popular by millions and only lost the electorate by a total vote count that wouldn't fill most D1 college football stadiums.
In theory I agree with the idea that a progressive candidate has a better shot now than ever before because the alternative is a diaster of epic proportions.
I also fully understand the PTSD from 2016 and being afraid of putting forth a candidate that's so far to the left that it scares moderates back to Trump. And I don't know if that fear is overblown or valid - largely because I went into election day 2016 believing that we, as a nation, couldn't possibly be dumb enough to elect this fucking asshole.
Ultimately I think we need to remember that common sense doesn't necessarily apply to our elections, as a candidate can lose the popular vote by an overwhelming majority and still win the presidency if they thread the needle in a handful of states. So the candidate needs to be capable of winning those states.
Has Trump damaged himself enough between now and then to make the Ohio's and Pennsylvania's not matter? To anyone with a rational fucking thought in their head? Of course! Why are we having them s conversation? Throw the most left leaning candidate out there and they'll win just because they aren't Trump!
But for fucks sake what rational person would have felt that he didn't so enough to damage himself prior to November 9, 2016? So why would should I possibly believe that the democrats (who are horrifically bad, as an organization, at winning) will be able to just throw anyone out there and expect a win?
What scares me most about the shots at Biden by those on the left is that it makes me believe that if he wins the nomination, which is a distinct possibility, that many people will stay home. This abso-fucking-lutely can not happen - and I will never forgive any asshole who doesn't pull that left lever in November 2020 because it was Biden over one of the more left leaning candidates.
Sitting this one out, or voting third party, over the democratic candidate not being the one you prefer is a vote for Trump. Period.
And that goes for progressives against Biden just the same as it goes for moderates against Sanders. Any of the top democratic candidates are light years better than the status quo, and this needs to be recognized. This isn't a time to fuck around.
Something that Orgeferiperia - racist asshole that he was (and a big wave to our still current members who palled around and posted in threads here and on thedonald Reddit sub knowing what he really was... we remember, assholes) - still sticks with me to this day. He spoke of the lawn signs in exurban Pennsylvania being overwhelmingly for Trump being the reason why he felt Trump could pull it off.
He was laughed at.
He was right.
We can not fuck around here. The hidden Trump vote is still there. His approval numbers are the same as his polling numbers were in 2016. What should seem obvious to most is not.
This is the most important election in American history - and it absolutely must go the way of good and not the way of evil. There's no turning back if Trump wins a 2nd term. We will not recognize what's left of our nation if he does, if it isn't already too late.
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