South Carolina Primary Predictions

[deep]

Looks like Obama had a good day.

congrats

[maycocksean]

^Eh, I'm still pretty doubtful about what that means for the long term. Though I disagree with your position on Obama, I tend to agree with your analysis of his likliehood of winning the nomination or the presidency.

I do continue to believe however that Hillary Clinton will not win either so I expect another four years of Republican presidency. I just hope it's not Romney.

[phanan]

I can't recall a recent Super Tuesday having more relevance than this year. It's going to determine the whole thing.

[2861U2]

Originally posted by phanan
It's going to determine the whole thing.

Not even that, technically. I heard that its mathematically impossible for anyone to officially clinch the nomination on Super Tuesday.

[ntalwar]

Blowout or not, I don't like when the media calls it based only on exit polls. They called it with 0 actual votes counted - scary.

[deep]

Originally posted by maycocksean
^Eh, I'm still pretty doubtful about what that means for the long term. Though I disagree with your position on Obama, I tend to agree with your analysis of his likliehood of winning the nomination or the presidency.

I do continue to believe however that Hillary Clinton will not win either so I expect another four years of Republican presidency. I just hope it's not Romney.

"Though I disagree with your position on Obama"

My position on Obama?

is I like the guy, I have said I expect to vote for him if he gets the nomination.


I just believe Hillary is better to win in Nov and also survive reelection with policies similar to the 90s that were basically correct.

If Obama wins in Nov.

I think the economy and foreign problems will be laid at his feet and he will not get a second term. And we could get a replay of 8 years with a W type Republican.

[deep]

South Carolina was supposed to be the one sure win for Edwards when this all began.


trying to think of legitimate reasons for him to stay in much longer.

I guess he will stay in through super Tuesday Feb 5,
20+ states.

He may gather a few delegates with the States that award based on distribution of votes.

Is the most he can do is prevent a candidate from winning on the first ballot at the convention?

[yolland]

With 63% of precincts reporting, the current totals are Obama 54%, Clinton 27%, and Edwards 19%.


Some exit poll data from CNN (based on 1,905 respondents):


Black men (20% of respondents)--Obama 80%, Clinton 17%, Edwards 3%
Black women (35%)--Obama 78%, Clinton 20%, Edwards 2%
White/Other men (19%)--Edwards 44%, Clinton 29%, Obama 27%
White/Other women (27%)--Clinton 42%, Edwards 35%, Obama 22%

Black, all ages (55%)--Obama 78%, Clinton 19%, Edwards 2%
Black, 18-29 yrs. (8%)--Obama 77%, Clinton 21%, Edwards 2%
Black, 30-44 yrs. (17%)--Obama 82%, Clinton 17%, Edwards 1%
Black, 45-59 yrs. (19%)--Obama 79%, Clinton 18%, Edwards 3%
Black, 60+ (10%)--Obama 73%, Clinton 23%, Edwards 4%
White/Other, all ages (45%)--Edwards 40%, Clinton 36%, Obama 24%
White/Other, 18-29 (5%)--Obama 52%, Clinton 27%, Edwards 21%
White/Other, 30-44 (9%)--Edwards 41%, Clinton 34%, Obama 25%
White/Other, 45-59 (15%)--Edwards 40%, Clinton 37%, Obama 23%
White/Other, 60+ (16%)--Clinton 42%, Edwards 42%, Obama 15%

--registered Dems (73%)--Obama 57%, Clinton 28%, Edwards 14%
--registered Repubs (4%)--Edwards 43%, Obama 37%, Clinton 20%
--independents (23%)--Obama 42%, Edwards 32%, Clinton 26%

--48% said Obama most likely to beat Republican nom; of those 88% voted for Obama, 8% for Edwards and 4% for Clinton.
--36% said Clinton most likely to beat Republican nom; of those 68% voted for Clinton, 21% for Obama and 11% for Edwards.
--15% said Edwards most likely to beat Republican nom; of those 73% voted for Edwards, 21% voted for Obama and 6% voted for Clinton.

--83% said they'd be "Satisfied" if Obama won the nom; of those 63% voted for Obama, 23% for Clinton, and 14% for Edwards.
--16% said they'd be "Dissatisfied"; of those 51% voted for Clinton, 47% for Edwards, and 2% for Obama.

--77% said they'd be "Satisfied" if Clinton won the nom; of those 49% voted for Obama, 35% for Clinton, and 16% for Edwards.
--23% said they would be "Dissatisfied" if Clinton won the nom; of those 66% voted for Obama, 33% for Edwards and 1% for Clinton.

--77% respondents said Yes, the US is ready to elect a black President; of those 63% voted for Obama, 21% for Clinton, and 16% for Edwards.
--22% said No; of those 48% voted for Clinton, 29% for Edwards and 23% for Obama.

--75% said Yes, the US is ready to elect a woman President; of those 50% voted for Obama, 33% for Clinton and 17% for Edwards.
--23% said No; of those 67% voted for Obama, 25% for Edwards and 8% for Clinton.

[deep]

Originally posted by yolland
With 63% of precincts reporting, the current totals are Obama 54%, Clinton 27%, and Edwards 19%.


Some exit poll data from CNN (based on 1,905 respondents):




--83% said they'd be "Satisfied" if Obama won the nom; of those 63% voted for Obama, 23% for Clinton, and 14% for Edwards.
--17% said they'd be "Dissatisfied"; of those 52% voted for Clinton, 46% for Edwards, and 2% for Obama.

--77% said they'd be "Satisfied" if Clinton won the nom; of those 49% voted for Obama, 35% for Clinton, and 16% for Edwards.
--23% said they would be "Dissatisfied" if Clinton won the nom; of those 67% voted for Obama, 32% for Edwards and 1% for Clinton.

So on this hotly contested election day.

4 out of 5 Democrats say they would be satisfied with either Hillary or Obama.

Come November look for it to be closer to 5 out of 5..

[maycocksean]

Originally posted by yolland

Black men (20% of respondents)--Obama 80%, Clinton 17%, Edwards 3%
Black women (35%)--Obama 78%, Clinton 20%, Edwards 2%
White/Other men (19%)--Edwards 44%, Clinton 29%, Obama 27%
White/Other women (27%)--Clinton 42%, Edwards 35%, Obama 22%

Hmmm. It's pretty clear then that it was the "black vote" that gave him the big win. I don't think that's going to be good enough.

[maycocksean]

Originally posted by deep



"Though I disagree with your position on Obama"

My position on Obama?

is I like the guy, I have said I expect to vote for him if he gets the nomination.


I just believe Hillary is better to win in Nov and also survive reelection with policies similar to the 90s that were basically correct.

If Obama wins in Nov.

I think the economy and foreign problems will be laid at his feet and he will not get a second term. And we could get a replay of 8 years with a W type Republican.

Exactly. I disagree with your belief that Hillary is a better win in November. My position on Hillary is the same as yours is on Obama.

[Axver]

Originally posted by yolland
--16% said they'd be "Dissatisfied" [if Obama won the nom]; of those ... 2% [voted] for Obama.

[...]

--23% said they would be "Dissatisfied" if Clinton won the nom; of those ... 1% [voted] for Clinton.

Oookay.

[phanan]

Originally posted by 2861U2


Not even that, technically. I heard that its mathematically impossible for anyone to officially clinch the nomination on Super Tuesday.

Oh, I realize that. But if one candidate on either side more or less dominates that day, they'll surely end up being the nominee.

[ntalwar]

Originally posted by maycocksean


Hmmm. It's pretty clear then that it was the "black vote" that gave him the big win. I don't think that's going to be good enough.

How about Iowa?

[yolland]

Originally posted by maycocksean
Hmmm. It's pretty clear then that it was the "black vote" that gave him the big win. I don't think that's going to be good enough.

Keep in mind though, this is a Southern state, so you'd expect to see more racially polarized voting, even in a Democratic primary. In addition to Obama's huge success with black voters (who only a few months ago favored Clinton by considerable margins), he still managed to pull a quarter of the white vote, and Edwards actually got more of the white vote than Clinton did. End result, Obama won by 28%. Unless South Carolina turns out to be flukey and not at all predictive of overall Southern trends this time around, and I can't think of why it would be, then there's another 8-10 states with large black electorates where his prospects are looking very good. Now obviously, outside the South he'll need more than a quarter of the "nonblack vote" to win, but SC is highly unlikely to be predictive of the country at large in that regard. We'll have to wait until Super Tuesday to see how much bounce this win gave him, and where the momentum is trending now.

[maycocksean]

Originally posted by yolland

Keep in mind though, this is a Southern state, so you'd expect to see more racially polarized voting, even in a Democratic primary. In addition to Obama's huge success with black voters (who only a few months ago favored Clinton by considerable margins), he still managed to pull a quarter of the white vote, and Edwards actually got more of the white vote than Clinton did. End result, Obama won by 28%. Unless South Carolina turns out to be flukey and not at all predictive of overall Southern trends this time around, and I can't think of why it would be, then there's another 8-10 states with large black electorates where his prospects are looking very good. Now obviously, outside the South he'll need more than a quarter of the "nonblack vote" to win, but SC is highly unlikely to be predictive of the country at large in that regard. We'll have to wait until Super Tuesday to see how much bounce this win gave him, and where the momentum is trending now.

Seems like a reasonable analysis. Okay!

[ntalwar]

Said Bill Clinton today in Columbia, SC: "Jesse Jackson won South Carolina in '84 and '88. Jackson ran a good campaign. And Obama ran a good campaign here."

This was in response to a question from ABC News' David Wright about it taking "two Clintons to beat" Obama. Jackson had not been mentioned

http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpu...-obama-is.html

They really will say anything.

[Irvine511]

it seems important to point out that Obama himself got more votes than Huckabee and McCain *combined*.

[Anu]

Holds breath, let's breath go.

I'm pleased by the results and am amazed that this primary season is going to last until August in both parties by all accounts.

[deep]

Originally posted by ntalwar


http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpu...-obama-is.html

They really will say anything.

I don't know how young you are
but I was there in 84 and 88.

And I will say Jackson's address at the Democratic convention was much more inspirational than the very good speech Obama gave in 2004.


Also, Jackson won SC in 88 at about 50% to 25 % (sound familiar)
Dukakis -25% > became the eventual nominee.


One question for you

Do you think Obama will win more states in 2004 than Jackson won in 1988?