2016 US Presidential Election Thread IX

[Irvine511]

Originally Posted by bobsaget77

I can understand not wanting to vote for Hillary Clinton, but what is it about Trump that makes you believe that he would be a good president of the United States?

Be specific.

[Irvine511]

Originally Posted by BEAL

Let's wait until August to really care about polls. Trump is going to do well now when Clinton is still dealing with Sanders


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Not only will there be a consolidation, but Obama's approval numbers have been steadily climbing this entire year. She won't distance herself from his successful presidency the Gore did Clinton. The American people would vote overwhelmingly for a third Obama term, which is what she will bring.

Of course, Trump is a wild card. No one really knows what to do with him. So we'll see.

[DaveC]

average of polls

well that's useful.

[LuckyNumber7]

Originally Posted by DaveC

average of polls

well that's useful.

I posted a big rant about this very thing. Statistically it isn't an indicator, it's an indicator of indicators. It doesn't mean anything, especially because it has not one but two degrees of freedom (other/not sure). So when those poll numbers come up and they have Clump and Trinton tied at 43-43 and then another poll says 51-47, and you average them, you're basically making nonsense because one asked an entirely different question.

[BVS]

Originally Posted by Oregoropa

Trump is now leading Clinton in the Real Clear Politics average of recognized polls by 0.2 points. 5 weeks ago he was down 12 points.

Attachment 10684


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Wait. Trump leads by a whopping .2, in an average of polls, 2 of which are right wing polls against someone who is still campaigning for the nom in her own party?

This is indeed a day to celebrate


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[DaveC]

Originally Posted by LuckyNumber7

Clump and Trinton

stealing this

[Oregoropa]

Just two months ago many in the forum cited polling as a reason Trump was unelectable. Live by the sword die by the sword

RCP chooses polls it seems reputable to include. So may argue it includes left leaning and right leaning polls. Instead of citing one poll RCP does us all a service by grouping data sets.

Trump closing 12 points shows the GOP coalescing around the candidate. As argued we may see the same once Hillary secures the nomination this summer. Who would have known the Republicans would have had it sewn up in May with 17 candidates while the Dems have had 2 since October?


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[Bluer White]

Originally Posted by Oregoropa

Just two months ago many in the forum cited polling as a reason Trump was unelectable. Live by the sword die by the sword.

Who would have known the Republicans would have had it sewn up in May with 17 candidates while the Dems have had 2 since October?


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Your points are well taken.

[BVS]

Originally Posted by Oregoropa

Just two months ago many in the forum cited polling as a reason Trump was unelectable. Live by the sword die by the sword

RCP chooses polls it seems reputable to include. So may argue it includes left leaning and right leaning polls. Instead of citing one poll RCP does us all a service by grouping data sets.

Trump closing 12 points shows the GOP coalescing around the candidate. As argued we may see the same once Hillary secures the nomination this summer. Who would have known the Republicans would have had it sewn up in May with 17 candidates while the Dems have had 2 since October?


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It's all about the quality and context of the polls. What's happened in that timeline of closing 12 points? Trump has become the presumptive nominee. So logic would say; that 12 point close doesn't really mean that much. Now put that up against the fact Clinton isn't even technically the presumptive, if your guy is only .2 ahead with the deck in his favor, then you're actually kind of screwed once that deck is stacked more even and you throw in the electoral college.


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[LuckyNumber7]

Originally Posted by Oregoropa

RCP chooses polls it seems reputable to include. So may argue it includes left leaning and right leaning polls. Instead of citing one poll RCP does us all a service by grouping data sets.

Trump closing 12 points shows the GOP coalescing around the candidate. As argued we may see the same once Hillary secures the nomination this summer. Who would have known the Republicans would have had it sewn up in May with 17 candidates while the Dems have had 2 since October?

It's not about left leaning and right leaning bias. This is an issue of statistics, not bias. Each individual poll is a statistical estimate of the true mean. Grouping means together would have purpose, if each poll were done exactly the same way. But, they're not. So, when you have polls that allow for voting for Gary Johnson, or when you have an "undecided" option, you can't mix the polls. But RCP does. So, when one poll has Trump at 49% of the vote, because it doesn't include those "undecided" options, and then another does include those and had Trump at 41%, you can't just average them and say he's estimated to get 45% of the vote. It's not a proper indicator. That would be a distribution of non-homogeneous samples that's entirely bimodal, with no apparent significance of the mean.

[DaveC]

Originally Posted by Oregoropa

Just two months ago many in the forum cited polling as a reason Trump was unelectable. Live by the sword die by the sword

useful polling.

[Bluer White]

BigMacPhisto and Oregoropa are coming from opposite sides of the spectrum. And I think both are doing a service to the forum, without being dinks about it.

Together they represent a whole bunch of American voters.

[Irvine511]

Originally Posted by LuckyNumber7

It's not about left leaning and right leaning bias. This is an issue of statistics, not bias. Each individual poll is a statistical estimate of the true mean. Grouping means together would have purpose, if each poll were done exactly the same way. But, they're not. So, when you have polls that allow for voting for Gary Johnson, or when you have an "undecided" option, you can't mix the polls. But RCP does. So, when one poll has Trump at 49% of the vote, because it doesn't include those "undecided" options, and then another does include those and had Trump at 41%, you can't just average them and say he's estimated to get 45% of the vote. It's not a proper indicator. That would be a distribution of non-homogeneous samples that's entirely bimodal, with no apparent significance of the mean.

Points well taken. And this leads to what is actual, real "media bias": they want a horse race. They want it to be as close as possible so you tune in every day to see who's up and who's down. Why? Ratings. That's what matters.

[Axver]

LN7's point about statistics is obviously sound, yet I can't help a moderate degree of trepidation. We've consistently written off Trump. Unelectable. Can't stay in the race. Won't get the nomination. Will fizzle out. Will implode. Will collapse.

And here we are.

I don't expect he can win, and the thought is genuinely horrifying, but two months ago I thought he couldn't become the Republican candidate and six months ago I thought he'd be done and dusted within a few weeks of the primaries beginning. So I'm not going to be comfortable until it's the Wednesday after the first Tuesday of November and Trump is not the president-elect.

[BVS]

Originally Posted by Bluer White

And I think both are doing a service to the forum, without being dinks about it.

You'll be hard pressed to find folks that will agree with this wholeheartedly. One fits that description, the other has flat out said he's not here to win anything or anyone over.


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[Moonlit_Angel]

Originally Posted by Axver

LN7's point about statistics is obviously sound, yet I can't help a moderate degree of trepidation. We've consistently written off Trump. Unelectable. Can't stay in the race. Won't get the nomination. Will fizzle out. Will implode. Will collapse.

And here we are.

I don't expect he can win, and the thought is genuinely horrifying, but two months ago I thought he couldn't become the Republican candidate and six months ago I thought he'd be done and dusted within a few weeks of the primaries beginning. So I'm not going to be comfortable until it's the Wednesday after the first Tuesday of November and Trump is not the president-elect.

You've just summed up how I feel perfectly.

[LuckyNumber7]

Originally Posted by Axver

LN7's point about statistics is obviously sound, yet I can't help a moderate degree of trepidation. We've consistently written off Trump. Unelectable. Can't stay in the race. Won't get the nomination. Will fizzle out. Will implode. Will collapse.

And here we are.

I don't expect he can win, and the thought is genuinely horrifying, but two months ago I thought he couldn't become the Republican candidate and six months ago I thought he'd be done and dusted within a few weeks of the primaries beginning. So I'm not going to be comfortable until it's the Wednesday after the first Tuesday of November and Trump is not the president-elect.

I suppose I wasn't really using that post to say Trump can't win. Though I don't think he can, due to the electoral map, which is more of a republican problem than a Trump problem. However, I suppose if there was anyone able to do something contradictory, it's Trump.

But yeah, I was just discrediting RCP aggregate polls. They're useful to tell trends, but they don't actually tell you who is ahead. So, to RCP's credit, that's actually what they try to show you. People just take it out of context.

[Diemen]

Originally Posted by Oregoropa

Who would have known the Republicans would have had it sewn up

Yeah, but look who you ended up with.

[Vlad n U 2]

Tony Abbott got elected once based on one repetitive three word slogan, and as a result I won't be that surprised if Trump does.

[Axver]

Originally Posted by Vlad n U 2

Tony Abbott got elected once based on one repetitive three word slogan, and as a result I won't be that surprised if Trump does.

Hey hey, give him credit: TWO repetitive three word slogans.

STOP DA BOATS

AXE DA TAX

 

DITCH DA WITCH

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