NFL Thread III

[Headache in a Suitcase]

it's literally not. alas - i'm not going to try and change your mind.

[bono_212]

Originally Posted by Headache in a Suitcase

because football is not just offense - and the college rules, while entertaining as hell, cheapens the defensive side of the ball.

i'd be more in favor of simply playing a straight 10 minute OT before shifting to sudden death than I would shifting to the college rules.

I would like just a true 10 minute OT most of all. But I'm glad the league addressed this at all. As we all know, not too long ago, it really was basically the coin toss that decided who won. A field goal to end things on the first drive was a joke of a rule. I've been content since that went out the window.

[LuckyNumber7]

Originally Posted by Headache in a Suitcase

it's literally not. alas - i'm not going to try and change your mind.

Alas, how above thou you must be. You right tho, in college they just have cardboard structures in place of defense during OT.

[bono_212]

Originally Posted by phanan

Yes, kicking just short of the goal line was my thought. Make them catch it at the 2 or something and run it out. Pringle is good, but I'd rather take my chances stopping him vs Mahomes. If they are at the 20 or 25 with only 8 seconds remaining, you're in much better shape. I just wouldn't take any chances against Mahomes, he's that good.

It's Mahomes and they needed a field goal and had all of their time outs. We know who he is and what he can do, 13 seconds was plenty of time, and that's why the commentary team also agrees, you kick it short of the goal like there, and it's what I've come to expect in that situation too. I feel like that's basically the default move, but even a slightly longer than average squib kick might have done the job. Just crazy that Buffalo freely said, "here, have a free timeout and 25 yards."

[LuckyNumber7]

I think there’s a case to be made about the kickoff, for sure, though zero chance you squib it. That runs the risk of starting from the 40 with no time burnt.

Ultimately though, Buffalo dropped the ball in many ways to allow 50 yards in 13 seconds.

[Headache in a Suitcase]

Originally Posted by LuckyNumber7

Alas, how above thou you must be. You right tho, in college they just have cardboard structures in place of defense during OT.

i fully intended on my last post to be the last post on this subject - and this absolutely will be - and it has nothing to do with me believing i'm "above" you. i have no interest in dragging this out in a back and forth that nobody is going to budge on. so if that makes you feel better, or that you "won"? okay - fine.

in college the offense gets the ball on the 25 yard line. there aren't readily available stats on what teams do on offense from the 25 - but there's plenty from the 20 so for sake of argument let's use that.

the NFL leaders in drives ending in a score were the chiefs at 48%. the Bills were second at 45%. that's all drives - no matter if it begins from your own 5 yard line or you get a turnover on the goal line and just need a sneak. the NFL average on all drives was a score on 37.8% of drives.


in the Red Zone the WORST conversion percentage was Jacksonville at 62.5%. if you only count touchdowns - the worst conversion percentage was the Giants at 45% - the same as what the Bills had on all drives.

the Bills scored touchdowns in the red zone 62% of the time, the Chiefs 59%. both teams scored (FG or TD) in the high 80s.

so no - the college rules aren't quite the same as just letting it play out. it gives a clear advantage to the offense and, yes, cheapens the defensive side of the ball.

at the end of the day? sure - you still have to "make a stop." but it's statistically much more likely that you make a stop off a kickoff than it is when the offense starts with the ball at your 25 yard line, and by a fairly wide margin.

that is all.

[phanan]

Originally Posted by LuckyNumber7

I think there’s a case to be made about the kickoff, for sure, though zero chance you squib it. That runs the risk of starting from the 40 with no time burnt.

Ultimately though, Buffalo dropped the ball in many ways to allow 50 yards in 13 seconds.

Absolutely agree with no squib there. We've seen that backfire too many times in the past.

[bono_212]

Originally Posted by phanan

Absolutely agree with no squib there. We've seen that backfire too many times in the past.

I wouldn't truly advocate for a squib, that was me being a bit dramatic, more to the point, I just can't, can't, can't believe they kicked it out.

[LuckyNumber7]

Originally Posted by Headache in a Suitcase

i fully intended on my last post to be the last post on this subject - and this absolutely will be - and it has nothing to do with me believing i'm "above" you. i have no interest in dragging this out in a back and forth that nobody is going to budge on. so if that makes you feel better, or that you "won"? okay - fine.

Lol chill, it has nothing to do with who “won.” I just obviously didn’t like the dismissive “because it’s you“ response. Hopefully you can see that.

[Hewson]

Originally Posted by LuckyNumber7

College rules aren’t “offense only” though. Defense has to stop the offense. It’s literally the same point you’re making.

I know you two (U2) have argued this out already, but the offense is already set up in FG range in college, so while it's not "offense only", it's heavily tilted towards the offense.

[LuckyNumber7]

Hewson has spoken, blessed are the ones who kneel (to waste time)

[mikal]

My opinion and I believe is shared in the masses is:

I just want both teams to be able to have at least one possession in overtime. That's all.

[HeartlandGirl]

Originally Posted by Headache in a Suitcase

would the college rules be more entertaining? yes. are the current rules unfair? no.

I read an article this morning...

In college, the winner of OT is about 50-50. Either side has about the same statistical chance of winning the game.

In the pros, the loser of the coin toss only wins 42% of the time. So maybe the college rules are both more entertaining AND fairer.

[mikal]

Originally Posted by HeartlandGirl

I read an article this morning...

In college, the winner of OT is about 50-50. Either side has about the same statistical chance of winning the game.

In the pros, the loser of the coin toss only wins 42% of the time. So maybe the college rules are both more entertaining AND fairer.

Yep, and big picture, all the stats and data don't matter to me. I think most people would just want to see both teams have the ball once so the coin flip only determines which team gets the ball first in overtime. In current state, the coin flip plays a bigger factor than it needs to.

[bono_212]

I think that in sports like Hockey where there are multiple games to be played, a sudden death OT isn't the end of the world.

But for football, since it is just the one game, at the very least in the playoffs, yes, both teams MUST get a shot at scoring.

[mikal]

Originally Posted by bono_212

I think that in sports like Hockey where there are multiple games to be played, a sudden death OT isn't the end of the world.

But for football, since it is just the one game, at the very least in the playoffs, yes, both teams MUST get a shot at scoring.

Yep, especially since both defenses weren't doing anything to stop their opponents at the end of the game. You never know what would have happened if Buffalo got their own possession in OT, but the fact that we will never know is really disappointing.

[Headache in a Suitcase]

[LemonMelon]

Originally Posted by mikal

Yep, especially since both defenses weren't doing anything to stop their opponents at the end of the game. You never know what would have happened if Buffalo got their own possession in OT, but the fact that we will never know is really disappointing.

And anyway why should it be on Buffalo to make the first and possibly only defensive stop in OT? A coin toss built totally around luck (unless you believe tails never fails) isn't the fairest or most objective way to determine who gets a 25%+ boost to their chances of stealing the game. It makes sense to determine who goes first (or which team should decide that), but you really should give each team a possession and go until a score cannot be matched.

[DaveC]

Originally Posted by Headache in a Suitcase

i'd be more in favor of simply playing a straight 10 minute OT before shifting to sudden death

this is the way.

[mikal]

Originally Posted by LemonMelon

And anyway why should it be on Buffalo to make the first and possibly only defensive stop in OT? A coin toss built totally around luck (unless you believe tails never fails) isn't the fairest or most objective way to determine who gets a 25%+ boost to their chances of stealing the game. It makes sense to determine who goes first (or which team should decide that), but you really should give each team a possession and go until a score cannot be matched.

100%. That seems like the only fair way to determine a true winner.