mikal
Blue Crack Addict
Strange that the media isn't all over the new Quinnipiac poll that shows Biden up by 6% in Wisconsin but they love every poll that shows him down.
US Politics XXXVIII: "Patriots" vs Reality
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that's because Quinnipiac is in Connecticut and Connecticut is clearly full of libs. duh.
MrsSpringsteen
Blue Crack Addict
Barron Trump is a FL delegate to the GOP convention.
Somebody please make it stop
Somebody please make it stop
Hewson
Blue Crack Supplier
Father of the year:
Trump gets Barron's age wrong when asked about his youngest son's convention role
In an interview with Telemundo 51, Trump offered that Barron, who turned 18 in March, is 17 years old.
www.nbcnews.com
MrsSpringsteen
Blue Crack Addict
Ugh-from the guy who said Hitler did some good things.
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MrsSpringsteen
Blue Crack Addict
Gotta love all the GQP who are so pro life criticizing Biden for setting limits with Netanyahu regarding how many innocent men women and children can be killed in Gaza with US assistance.
It's all such hypocrisy for political gain
It's all such hypocrisy for political gain
ahhh yes - the "actually the conversation never happened, it was actually just a butt dial" defense.
Think this would put Trump over the top against Biden. Enough of those Haley voters will probably be on with Trump knowing she’s there to “contain” him.
I could see her doing it because why not? Power means everything to these people
allaras
Acrobat
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Republicans are pro life until the baby is born. After that, the hell with em
allaras
Acrobat
- Joined
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Plausible scenario, but she’s not a true believer and Trump is not going to want another Pence who would rather follow that pesky constitution rather then do his bidding.
My money is on Elise Stefanik
MrsSpringsteen
Blue Crack Addict
Of course they are, that's been perfectly obvious for a long time. It's about controlling women too.
MrsSpringsteen
Blue Crack Addict
WTF
I'm sure Hannibal Lecter is a very appealing character to Donnie.
Is he saying people should kill and eat people coming into this country illegally?
MrsSpringsteen
Blue Crack Addict
Also Barron is not going to be a delegate, Melania issued this statement. Something tells me this was done without her knowledge, maybe even without Barron's.
"While Barron is honored to have been chosen as a delegate by the Florida Republican Party, he regretfully declines to participate due to prior commitments"
"While Barron is honored to have been chosen as a delegate by the Florida Republican Party, he regretfully declines to participate due to prior commitments"
Hewson
Blue Crack Supplier
Prior commitments being casting his first vote as an 18 year old for Joe Biden.
mikal
Blue Crack Addict
Flopapalooza
mikal
Blue Crack Addict
Even better
MrsSpringsteen
Blue Crack Addict
Huh?
See this is what I'm saying. His dumb ass being in a court room every day is denying the people the ability to see what a mush mouth loser he is.
ELECTION INTERFERENCE!!!
Also - uh, the kids are just booing Jewish celebrity commencement speakers over Palestine now?
I think one of the biggest frustrations or annoyances is the constant calling out for Biden and his Admin to DO SOMETHING NOW!!!! To stop Israel
We’ve gotten to a point in society where people think a tweet or tik tok video = policy and/or governance
Somehow biden tweeting ceasefire now would actually bring it to fruition.
And it’s not just the kiddos saying this, it’s media reporters and personalities who know better. This talk of how America shouldn’t be the world police or authoritarian….yet the US should police Israel all the time. Punish them immediately for any wrong they do. Rest of the world….its complicated
Biden and his team continue to work in the background like any normal government would. I hope peace comes sooner than later
We’ve gotten to a point in society where people think a tweet or tik tok video = policy and/or governance
Somehow biden tweeting ceasefire now would actually bring it to fruition.
And it’s not just the kiddos saying this, it’s media reporters and personalities who know better. This talk of how America shouldn’t be the world police or authoritarian….yet the US should police Israel all the time. Punish them immediately for any wrong they do. Rest of the world….its complicated
Biden and his team continue to work in the background like any normal government would. I hope peace comes sooner than later
Bit disingenuous. Non whites have slowly been tracking to the Red column since 2020. The kiddos….theyve never been behind Biden. His numbers with that group has been horrible. Has nothing to do with Gaza, all to do with him being old.
It’s just interesting how the Left continues to think this conflict somehow registers with anything or anyone more than their tiny base.
The people who walked out on Jerry Seinfeld, it was like 50 people of 20,000 in attendance. Poor form on their part, but their given rights to do so.
The real failure here and has been for so long is the media for presenting Trump as a normal candidate. And the stakes of these elections as a game or entertainment.
mikal
Blue Crack Addict
At this point, it makes me wonder if we should even have an election, since it looks like Joe Biden has already lost.
MrsSpringsteen
Blue Crack Addict
I hope the college protesters don't think it's better to just not vote, or to vote for Trump or RFK Jr.
What's happening in Gaza is morally reprehensible, as is what happened on October 7th, as is Hamas. The bottom line truth is that Netanyahu has been enabled by the US via blanket support of Israel no matter what (and to make it clear I'm not saying that supporting Israel is wrong, but there have to be conditions when supplying weapons that have killed more civilians than members of Hamas), so trying to put that genie back into a bottle is too little too late at this point.
What's happening in Gaza is morally reprehensible, as is what happened on October 7th, as is Hamas. The bottom line truth is that Netanyahu has been enabled by the US via blanket support of Israel no matter what (and to make it clear I'm not saying that supporting Israel is wrong, but there have to be conditions when supplying weapons that have killed more civilians than members of Hamas), so trying to put that genie back into a bottle is too little too late at this point.
Did you see the column and video on CNN? The writer basically said this very thing haha.
Whether or not the polls are accurate.....it's just mindboggling that the man a major political party is getting behind is Donald Trump. A failure in everything he's ever touched. A criminal. This is their God haha.
It could have been ANYONE else.
with Cohen's testimony today it seems like the only chance Trump has here is whether or not the jury buys the "falsifying to cover up another crime" thing. there are so many receipts that it's obvious as hell that he's guilty of falsifying business records. but the cover up is the felony.
Not so much. All these polls are in the margin of error, in every swing state. There are fatal flaws with the NYT poll here, as there have been with almost everything they've put out this election cycle.
If you look for example at the Harvard Institute of Politics poll of the 18-29 group in April. Among likely voters in this group, Biden is +19. His 2020 margin was +21. The NYT poll has Trump +2 with this crowd! Come ON! No one rational would believe that. Even allowing for way more Biden erosion than most surveys have found, a -23 swing from Biden to Trump is just not something I can wrap my head around! Even Carter beat Reagan by 2 with this demographic, and that was a national landslide back before the 18-29 vote was as solidly Democratic.
This very respected poll also had Gaza as 2nd to last in importance with this group, among about 12 issues. Inflation, the economy, reproductive rights and democracy are, not surprisingly to anyone rational, the top issues for them and everyone else. As BEAL said above, the left flank is quite free to think this conflict really resonates with the electorate and hurts Biden, but the data just has NOT shown that, period.
Back to the overall election, though, there are much better polls that have Biden up in enough places to get well over 270. Even these NYT and Wall Street journal polls that look to be very flawed in their weighting and assumptions, have the race very close. There is an emerging trend of Biden doing better as we move from polling "all adults" to "registered voters" to "likely voters."
Most importantly, 6 months out, any further developments aren't gonna favor Trump! As Headache says, just listen to him and look at him! He hit his peak in 2016, and he hit his RECENT, far lower peak sometime early 2024- before he stepped in and squashed the bipartisan border security bill. His signature issue, Biden and Senate DEMS/GOP strongly behind a tough bill, and he blew it up! Lots of independents were watching that.
Biden is FAR better funded. The Democratic Party far better organized. This will lead to a massive ground game/turn out operation for the poll that matters on November 5! Trump is using the RNC as a legal defense fund. Has completely taken it over. Has zero ground game! Literally zero. Swing state Republican leaders are asking for help to run a campaign- get out voters, and the response from Trump has been "I got it! Discourage early voting. Fuck turn out entirely, I've got it!" That usually goes well when he says he's got something- Atlantic City casinos, sexual assault, illegal payments to Stormy Daniels. Trump steaks. Airlines. University. COVID response. We get the idea!
The economy is still ripping along. Despite some stickiness in the last mile, there's no signs inflation will flare up. Gas prices falling will help this. Israel/Gaza, tragic and difficult as it is, it appears that Biden and other Middle East leaders have successfully prevented a broader Israel/Iran (Russia!) conflict. Maybe something the lefties should be thankful for if they'd not see these things as black and white purity tests. We're at nowhere near the level of protest or social unrest we saw even in 2020, never mind 1968! So Bernie can shut up!
The Democratic party put on a great convention in 2020- virtually, this one in person will be better and I'd bet big money will have no significant protest disruption. I'd also bet it will feature a massive surprise like a GW Bush endorsement or Cindy McCain speech, etc. It will occur after Trump and the Republicans embarrass themselves and scare the living shit out of suburban women at their fiasco.
Biden himself is a great retail politician and more importantly, has always had brilliant people running his campaigns. Look how close 2020 wound up being compared to the polls. When you look at the numbers, they knew EXACTLY where to get the votes and how to turn them out.
Polls just show trends, nothing to get wrapped up in unless they're both consistently bad and that trouble continues uninterrupted through Labor Day or so. Biden had a bad stretch from fall 2023 to about the State of the Union AKA when no one gave a shit or was paying much attention.
Polls that far out in 1980 and 1992 showed Carter and Bush 41 winning 2nd terms quite easily! Even early 2020, pre-Biden in South Carolina, was looking good for Trump. He rallied his base after his first impeachment and Bernie looked like he had lots of traction. I had visions of not even watching the returns in November it would've been so bad!
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