why worry about Ohio when you can win Kansas?
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Daily Dose: Poll: Obama would have shot at winning Kansas
By Dr. Bob Beatty
Special to The Capital-Journal
Published Tuesday, March 04, 2008
For the Past three decades, Kansas has been a reliable, easy win for the Republican presidential candidate.
Since 1996, the average margin of victory for the GOP standard bearer over the Democratic Party candidate has been 21 points.
But a poll released Feb. 22 by Survey USA that matches Republican Sen. John McCain against Democratic senators Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama reveals data suggesting something that hasn't been contemplated since the 1992 Bush-Clinton-Perot election.
The GOP candidate might not be a lock in the Sunflower State.
It's still a long way from November, but the poll shows many Kansans are keeping an open mind about Obama, and it adds weight to those who think the Illinois senator would make a stronger candidate than Clinton in the general election.
Here's why:
1. McCain beats Hillary Clinton easily
The statewide poll of registered voters shows McCain would defeat Clinton by 24 points in a general election matchup, 59 percent to 35 percent, with 6 percent undecided.
Among several groups of voters, McCain has substantial leads. Men prefer him by 39 points, young people by 26, and in western Kansas, he has a 30 point lead. In voter-rich eastern Kansas, he leads Clinton 58-38, and in the Wichita area, McCain is up by 16 points.
Even among women, a group Clinton has done well with in the Democratic primaries, she loses to McCain by eight points.
The only groups in which Clinton leads McCain are those who consider health care or the environment the No. 1 issue in America. For every other issue — the economy, immigration, social security, education, terrorism, even Iraq — Clinton has less support than the Arizona senator.
2. McCain beats Obama, but it's closer
In contrast to Clinton's numbers, the poll shows Obama is within striking distance of McCain, garnering 44 percent to McCain's 50 percent with 7 percent undecided.
Where is Obama picking up support that Clinton didn't get? He actually beats McCain among women (by seven points) and young people (by six points) and does 20 points better among men than Clinton.
But the key for Obama in Kansas is with independent voters. Where Clinton loses to McCain among independents, Obama wins that group from McCain by 21 points. Obama also beats McCain among self-described moderates by 14 points, a group Clinton loses by 12 points.
Among issues voters, McCain beats Obama among those who are concerned with immigration, terrorism, social security and education, but Obama wins among Kansans worried about the economy, the environment, health care and Iraq.
Geographically, Obama loses to McCain across the state, but he is within five points in both the Wichita area — where Obama's grandparents are from — and eastern Kansa[/q]