You underestimate the National side of the Reps. You have to win the primary FIRST. There's no real reason to be worried about any of those people. Mitt Romney is a Mormon and he also basically socialized healthcare in MA (can you say conflict of interest with the biggest issue for Reps in 2012?), Christie used to be a lobbyist which cannot help but I don't know much else about him.
Newt cheated on his wife and had ethics violations as Speaker of the House. These are all tough things to climb over. The Reps swallowed McCain's too-moderate politics because of his character and lack of 'strange' religion. A war hero can trump politics but not much can trump character issues in the Rep party.
I think it's going to be someone not currently on the radar.
Someone from flyover country, who will adopt more libertarian views to attract the Tea Party crowd. Probably a former Governor.
And as for that other statement, do you even remember 2004?
What about 2000?
The oppositional political climate in 1999 was "anyone is going to beat Gore because Gore is attached to that dirtbag Clinton". Closest race ever and some (I wouldn't) would argue Gore actually won the thing. And that was after Gore distanced himself from the Clinton era, which was still viewed favorable to most of the public. It's still a split country these days, it's going to be a tough sell to unseat a sitting President.
2003, 2004, the climate of the opposition was "a monkey could beat Bush".And we know that didn't happen.
Recent history tells us that your own party has to turn on you to be a one termer. (1948, 1968, 1980, 1992). Ford/Carter was a bizarre case where the whole country was ready for something new (thanks to Tricky Dick but not to mention Ford was never elected in the first place). But also not unlike Obama (thanks to W) where the country was ready for something new. I do see some similarities between Carter and Obama but Carter lost all those Blue Dog conservatives. "Reagan Democrats". The polling numbers tell us that Obama is still pretty strong with Dems, despite the hysterical partisan rhetoric you're probably hearing.
Lastly, Sarah Palin will be running for President if she's pulling any kind of poll numbers this fall and early into 2011. It's just that simple.
No, she will not run. The office of the President brings a lot of power, but also a lot of restrictions. She will be vocal, but she will not run.
Mitt, by the time another year goes by, people will be so desperate for jobs, they will want someone who has actual experience running a Dairy Queen, rather than no experience at all.
Mitt is a mormon, and that disqualifies him? Obama sat in a Black liberation theology church for 22 years. He made it.
I find it odd you say democrats, even far left support this President. When MSNBC and the Huffington post are attacking you by the day, relentlessly, that is a losss of support.
More importantly. Moderate Democrats, who got him elected, have left in droves. They are emabarassed they voted for him. 78 % of Americans opose and support repeal of the healthcare bill. Would that be all Republicans? The moderate Democrats do not support his socialist agenda. They reject it. I suggest you look at rassmussen on a daily basis.
Anyone he campaign for, loses. They are even asking him to not mention their names. That is as bad as it gets. Not one single candidate he has supported has won. not 1.
Hillary is wagging her tail. He keeps dropping, she will challange him. But she wont win.
Al Gore, has ZERO credibility. None.
Another good read is Dick Morris. You know he ran the political side for the dems for a long time. He knows them better than anyone. He rejected this "man" and he is spot on it calling what is happening. It is not pretty for the Democrats. Listen to him. He knows their playbook.
Regardless, it won't be Palin. You can reast assured of that.
To say the President has held his support, isn't even a stretch. It is a delusion to anyone who thinks that. When your own people are saying you are worse than Carter... that's bad.
When the media matters- aka Huffington post is tourching him on a Daily basis ( yes him too ) that's bad.
at -22 approval rate, he is politically impotent. He is right there, right now.