Earnie Shavers
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Happening now. Scary. This is not the normal low level military skirmish that both - usually - can and do back away from with relative ease:
Can we count on China to fix this? Or the U.N.?
They should blitz Pyongyang and remove the dictatorship.
No. And people wonder why the U.S. acts unilaterally. They might, considering their defence treaty with South Korea.
I really, really, really hate to say it, but this does seem like a case where a quick overthrow would go a long way toward solving the suffering of the North (and South) Koreans.
...if it wasn't for the little nuclear issue.
Their nuclear facilities would have to be taken control of simaltaneously.
I spent two years in TDC or Camp Casey, formerly the headquarters for 2nd Infantry Division in S Korea. I think we were 11 miles from the DMZ or something like that. I'm no expert on Korea by any means, but a little piece of me will always be there, and vice versa.
The terrain is rugged, mountainous, very bitterly cold in the winter, the roads are not what we are accustomed to here in the states (as in, there aren't enough of them so they are always overcrowded), and the South is flooded with people. Good people, very open and caring people, hard working, big hearted, thankful, hopeful, generous people.
After the long winters finally break the steamy summers begin usually with a two or three week long monsoon season, where it rains almost constantly. Then it's very hot and humid for the rest of summer. I don't ever remember there being an autumn on the peninsula.
Korea is not a good place to have a war, the main arteries and bridges can be taken out almost immediately from the north. Rockets from the north could eastily strike the massive metropolis of Seoul. Chaos would ensue....massive casualties....famine...riots...disease...suffering....utter fucking devistation and hell on earth.
As much as i might like to see the bastards in Pyongyang taken out and a new "friendly" bunch installed, or even one glorious unified Korea, im not exactly sure how that thing would work. Can the South handle this on their own? Has the world learned anything from Saddam's removal in Iraq? Most of the Americans stationed in my former playground near the DMZ would be killed very quickly, much of Seoul would be destroyed before the South were able to gain the upper hand...and reinforcements were able to come into play. Unless of course, all options are kept on the table, and im pretty sure they are. At this point all bets are surely...off. I think if you start seeing US military families who currently reside in Yongsan heading for the airports in big numbers, civilians too, then there's a sure sign the shit is about to hit the fan.
I really really pray that somehow this comes to a peaceful resolution. I don't see how these actions can be justified, but the consequences of what could potentially happen are....awful and unfathomable.
Feck. You know a lot more about Korea than me or anyone else here so you have me worried.
But, it's a last chance powerplay by a dying regime, surely? Or is that naive?
What would we be asking Beijing to do, really? More scolding, more temporary sanctions? Their leverage is limited nowadays; no one on the CPC Politburo has North Korea ties anymore, and they've clearly been both unprepared for and angered by Pyongyang's unnerving tantrums several times over the last decade. In theory, they always have the trump card of cutting off aid, but a power vacuum and massive humanitarian crisis on their northeast border is the last thing they'd want--that'd mean a flood of refugees into an already depressed region of China, and in all likelihood, US troops stationed even closer than we already are in short order, too.Can we count on China to fix this?
Do you think it's posturing because Kim Jong Il wants to prepare for this son's ascension?
What would we be asking Beijing to do, really? More scolding, more temporary sanctions? Their leverage is limited nowadays; no one on the CPC Politburo has North Korea ties anymore, and they've clearly been both unprepared for and angered by Pyongyang's unnerving tantrums several times over the last decade. In theory, they always have the trump card of cutting off aid, but a power vacuum and massive humanitarian crisis on their northeast border is the last thing they'd want--that'd mean a flood of refugees into an already depressed region of China, and in all likelihood, US troops stationed even closer than we already are in short order, too.
Where's Barry?
They've more or less already tried this; that's what Kim Dae-Jung won the Nobel Peace Prize for, the "sunshine policy" which prevailed from the late 90s until Lee Myung-bak's election in '08. Though it took the form of South Korean investment in the North (Hyundai, rail, limited tourism, aid) rather than bringing Northerners south, even as it was, there were heated accusations of SK pols and businessmen regularly bribing the North Koreans to encourage 'good behavior'--to fairly little avail, obviously. In light of that, it's tough to imagine SK corporations okaying Northern officials in the boardroom, not to mention the fears of spying, unfair cheap-labor competition, and US alienation (Washington never liked the policy) which were there from the get-go. At any rate, Lee Myung-bak made further "sunshine" contingent on denuclearization, then effectively scrapped the policy altogether following the warship sinking last spring.Doesn't anyone think there are upper level military people in North Korea that look at the prosperity of the South and thinks that looks like a pretty good idea? Power is great, but profit and wealth are seductive without as many demands. How about offering NK military leaders seats on some SK corporate boards?
I can't imagine they're contemplating invasion; if they were, I think they'd have tried or at least threatened that after the 2006 nuclear test, which was the most openly livid Beijing's been with Pyongyang in recent memory. It would not only further strain China-US relations, but also their relations with the rest of Asia; and, while I suppose the PLA would get a warmer public reception in North Korea than US troops would, they could hardly count on a smooth takeover, either. At this stage in China's history, it's just very hard to see benefits for them in risking it.But, would NK be better off if China invaded? I'm sure South Korea wouldn't like it, but any stability in North Korea would go a long way toward easy tension in the area. Although, it would put U.S. troops on a direct border of China, and things are tense enough between the U.S. and China in regards to Taiwan.