AliEnvy said:
I have no doubts about that whatsoever. However, Iraq has demonstrated the effectiveness of a strong insurgency against the biggest badass military of them all.
Hezbollah was bound to take their shot at it as well and I'm sure Israel was waiting and prepared for even the slightest provocation.
If they have underestimated Hezbollah's capabilities the way the US underestimated Iraq...and so far that seems very possible...then we are headed down a long, very ugly road.
Really? Has the insurgency driven the coalition in Iraq out of the country? Has the insurgency won any battles you can name? Has the insurgency been successful in denying the coalition access to any piece of Iraq? Was the insurgency successful in preventing the elections in Iraq? Was the insurgency successful in preventing the development and passing of a constitution? Has the insurgency successfully prevented the development of Iraq's first true democratically elected government?
Iraq was going to go through a long and difficult nation building process with or without an insurgency. The insurgencies true strength is really only its ability to survive by hiding behind the civilian population. It has made things incredibly difficult and costly, but has not prevented Iraq from progressing foward from where it was in April 2003. As with any nation building anti-insurgency operation, the operation Iraq will take many more years, but in terms of cost, it is far from being the most violent and costly operation the United States or other coalition members have been involved in. The British army lost 5 times as many soldiers in the early 1970s in Northern Ireland than they have lost in Iraq. The United States lost 25 times as many troops in Vietnam.
But Iraq is a very different matter in many ways than Hizbollah and Lebanon. First, its unlikely that Israel is going to invade and take over Lebanon and embark on a nation building anti-insurgency operation as the coalition is doing in Iraq. Certainly, they could do that if they felt it was the only way to insure their security, but its most likely that they will go for a buffer zone in the south devoid of any civilians. Such a buffer zone would remove 98% of the rocket threat to Israel, and prevent the incursions into Israel by Hezbollah fighters. It would also create an environment where Hezbollah would have to fight Israel essentially in the open because there will be no civilian population that it could use to hide behind or blend in with when conducting their operations.
With Hezbollah weakened and Isolated, the international community could attempt negotiations that could possibly lead to the disarmament of Hizbollah, a UN force to occupy the buffer zone created by Israel, and the withdrawal of the IDF from Lebanon. Then the development of the Lebanese government and economy could get under way. Of course, if negotiations fail, Israel can continue to occupy the buffer zone indefinitely, under conditions far more favorable than the occupation of 1982-2000.