Canadian Election

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Even if the Conservatives win, they will have a minority government. A minority government lasts, on average 18 months in Canada.

It might be even shorter than that this time around. The Liberals and the NDP will ally and the Bloc is much too leftist and has already said they will not ally with the Conservatives due to issues like gay marriage, Kyoto and abortion.

So, expect a no-confidence vote in about a year's time, at which point the Liberals will probably be re-elected. The Conservatives are pretty much the only right wing party out there and they'll be out on their own in the parliament.
 
one thing not being discussed in the media during this election is the pick up that left wing parties have made. both the conservative vote, then broken into alliance and progressive conservative, and the liberals have fallen since the 2000 election.

this loss in popular support has been captured exclusively by the bloc in quebec, and was exclusively limited to the liberals. in the rest of the nation, the ndp have been benefactors and the green party have risen to the point where they very well may attain official party status.

2000 election results

alliance 25.5%
prog cons 12.2%
liberals 40.8%
bloc que 10.7%
ndp 8.3%
other 2.3%

here the conservatives and liberals captured nearly 80% of the popular vote.

latest polling shows the conservatives with about 32% support, the liberals with slightly less @ 31%-at best the two total 65%.
 
I was in a motel in Utica, NY last night, and I ended up watching the English-language debate on C-SPAN2 (What can I say? I was bored, and there was nothing on until "South Park" at 9:30 :p).

But I was earnestly intrigued by a four-party debate, and I laughed watching all four of them bite at each other. Layton was quite funny, particularly when he picked on Martin, and Harper is a nut. A complete misleading nut. Don't like the man at all!

But yeah...the fact that the Liberal party is very center-left meant that the Conservatives and the NDP could gang up on Martin given the opportunity--either for not being "conservative" enough or not being "liberal" enough. As for the Bloc candidate, maybe I need to brush up on my Qu?becer Canadian English; I couldn't understand half of what he was saying. :reject:

Nonetheless, I found it all interesting, and I figured that some knowledge of the current Canadian political situation couldn't hurt, since it seems that most Canadians seem to know what's going on in the U.S.

...

Melon
 
Ooh I watched the debate. I thikn I am in love with Jack Layton. *hides* Harper seems likk such a slimeball. Well okay, most politicians are slimeballs, but him especially so. I think Layton is so passionate and has good speaking skills. Plus the NDP were the only party to come visit my school for Student Vote 2004.
 
I really don't know what to do. NOTHING could be worse than letting Harper in, so I am tempted to vote liberal strategically to edge him out. I like Paul Martin, but I'm suspicious of ALL of them. The issues that the NDP promotes, especially the environmental side are most important to me, but again, I'd rather vote for the Devil you know than the Devil you don't. The Greens are actually extremely right wing, few people know that.

WHAT TO DO!?!?!? :banghead:
 
the greens are right wing but i wouldn't classify them as extreme. i lumped them with the 'left' because, as you mentioned, that is the popular vision of them.
 
So should I vote strategically or based on party platform? I don't think there's anything wrong with the Liberal platform, I don't like the idea of rewarding bad behaviour, but the alternative is so much worse.....
 
i face a similar dilemna.

my career in the public service would likely flourish within harper's downsized government not only because i am young and educated but also because my french is, and always will be, under development (and he would decimate language requirements for the public service). but his policies are the opposite of what i agree with so it is a no go.

i like some ndp policies and some liberal.

in the end i am voting for downtown ottawa's ndp candidate and former party leader: ed broadbent. it is an easy decision as i feel broadbent will be a valuable voice in the house of commons-no matter which party forms the government.

i do not believe in voting strategically, except maybe in the case of quebec. but my liberal:ndp dilemna is settled by my local candidate.
 
I've decided to vote strategically. The thought of a "Conservative" (actually Reform in all but name) government scares me. I used to always vote Green, but they've really shifted to the right on economic matters. I like the NDP's platform for the most part, but they stand no chance of forming a government, so it's the Liberals by default. ( And I do like Paul Martin.)
 
My riding is neck and neck Conservative/Liberal and it's hard to say what will happen because I'm in a brand new riding and we therefore have no incumbent.

Everyone in my house is planning on voting NDP, but my brother is slowly trying to convince us to vote strategically instead.
 
Ack I wish I could vote so badly. One year tomorrow and I can *shakes fist*
I'm so glad we had that student vote thing. I know it doesnt really technically matter much but I think it means a lot because in a few years when we can all vote we may actually vote now that people my age will be more aware of this sort of thing.
Okay that may have made no sense whatsoever. I'm just mad that I know peopel who CAN vote but wont for some reason.
 
wow.

tory mp randy white dismisses the charter of rights and freedoms and the role of courts in our federal system.
popular liberals urge their brethren to vote ndp.

with only a weekend to go and the libs and cons running neck and neck, the only positive momentum appears to lye with the ndp. it seems we are headed for a period of political, and likely economic and social, upheaval with a 2nd election in a matter of months.
 
Pinball Wizard said:

I'm thinking strategic voting won't help. Any opinions to the contrary?
Click to expand...

lets say, hypothetically, that each party got a $1.75 per vote once they attain a certain percentage of the popular vote (~5% i think).

because they do.

your $1.75 could certainly go to the big 3 or perhaps the greens for the early 2005 election.
 
kobayashi said:


lets say, hypothetically, that each party got a $1.75 per vote once they attain a certain percentage of the popular vote (~5% i think).

because they do.

your $1.75 could certainly go to the big 3 or perhaps the greens for the early 2005 election.
Click to expand...

The Green Party?

If she was in Harpers riding and she didnt want to vote conservative why then would she vote green, as the green asre more conservative then the PC's!

just vote NDP and be done with it...
 
bonoman said:


The Green Party?

If she was in Harpers riding and she didnt want to vote conservative why then would she vote green, as the green asre more conservative then the PC's!
Click to expand...

i didn't intend to tell him who to vote for. i meant that in an electoral system where public funding is equated to votes recieved in the most recent election, such as the canadian one does, every vote counts--so long as it is a vote for a party that crosses that threshold of popular vote. i only brought up the green party because they are right on the bubble for qualifying for that funding. the libs, cons, ndp and bloc are all well past it. so even if your riding is a foregone conclusion, your vote counts.
 
I have decided to vote liberal.

I live in what is probably a conservative stronghold but liberal it is. I was coming out of a local shopping mall today when I actually came face to face with my local liberal candidate and before he could say anything, I told him I was voting liberal on Monday. He said thanks. I was going to just walk away but he asked me if I had any questions about the campaign or if there was anything I needed answered. I told him that I pretty much kept up with things and didn't really have any questions. I thought it was nice of him to ask that. There were a lot of people hovering around that he probably had to shake hands with and talk to. But he took those few extra moments to talk to me and say hi to my kids.
 
My whole family ganged up on me to vote NDP over the weekend. I totally see their points, and I know if everyone would just vote their conscience maybe they would win, but I just think with a call this close, I don't have the luxury of voting NDP! Sad but true. It does make it much easier since I like our Liberal candidate....
 
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fah said:
There were a lot of people hovering around that he probably had to shake hands with and talk to. But he took those few extra moments to talk to me and say hi to my kids.
Click to expand...

It's amazing how much difference that can make. I remember being furious with the local Labour party candidate when he came into the place I was working over summer and spoke to the owner of the business while completely ignoring the three of us who were employed there. Perhaps someone needed to remind him that we have a system of one person one vote and the votes of the mere pharmacy assistants are worth just the same as that of the guy who owned the pharmacy. :madspit:

He's probably going to lose his seat at the next election though, so what do I care? :D
 
I'm here in Vancouver now where the NDP are very popular in some distrcits.
But I really hope many of them vote liberal because anything would be better than a conservative gov't.

Consider, if the con's get in.

Kyoto can be considered scrapped.
We'll latch onto the "starwars" thing
Gay marriage and general rights will suffer
Social programs would suffer
We'd experience more americanization
we'd lose much of the culture of what makes canada Canada.

VOTE LIBERAL

They may be rife with corruption but so is every political party.

And just because NDP are more left doesn't mean they'd be better. They got a term here in BC and drove the economy into the shiiter. They have a lot of fine tuning to do before they can lead a country
 
There's not much I don't agree with there.

Although when I visited the polling station earlier, I almost succumbed to the notion of voting for the Marijuana Party... then temptation subsided, and everything looked good except conservative.

Considering Harper voted in the same school I did, my choice is screwed. Hopefully the NDP rep enjoys the $1.75 I donated to her party. That's the equivalence of a dime for our American viewers.

:up:
 
The turnout was pretty good in my riding, and I went earlier than usual and probably beat out the masses so I'd predict better turnout than last time around anyway.
 
Well, it looks like a Liberal minority. Thank goodness, it could have been much worse. The NDP will likely influence the political agenda, so the government will definitely lean left. At least until the next election, which will be sooner rather than later.
 
http://www.cbc.ca/story/election/national/2004/06/28/elxn_popvote040628.html

Predictions that voters would desert the Liberals in droves over the sponsorship scandal were proven wrong on election night, judging by the popular vote numbers.

Though Paul Martin's party lost 40 seats compared to its showing in the 2000 election, picking up 137 seats this time, voter support dropped by only three percentage points. About 38 per cent of Canadians who voted today cast ballots for the Liberals, compared to almost 41 per cent four years ago.

By comparison, the united-right Conservatives won the support of 29.2 per cent of voters, compared to the 37.8 per cent who voted for either the Alliance or the Progressive Conservatives in 2000. The merged party gained only seven seats for a total of 93.

The New Democratic Party was the big winner of the night in terms of popular vote. Its number rose seven percentage points, from 8.7 per cent of voters in 2000 to 15.4 per cent in 2004.

The Bloc Qu?b?cois gained 22 seats as its support rose by 1.5 percentage points, from 10.4 per cent nationally to 12.3 per cent.
Click to expand...

Nice to see that the Conservatives had a net loss in this election, in terms of support, even if they did pick up seven seats as a combined party.

Melon
 
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This is great! Even greater is that the NDP will play a fairly key role. It should make for some interesting politics.
 
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