An Inconvenient Truth

[MrsSpringsteen]

First half of ’06 was warm, for the record

Here’s some hot news from the National Climatic Data Center, arriving just ahead of Kansas City’s first hot spell of the summer: The first half of 2006 was the warmest on record for the United States.

The average temperature for the 48 contiguous United States from January through June was 51.8 degrees Fahrenheit, 3.4 degrees above the average for the 20th century.

No state was cooler than average. Five states — Missouri, Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma and Nebraska — experienced record warmth for the period.


| The Associated Press

 

[INDY500]

GOREZILLA!!

 

[nbcrusader]

Now why on earth didn’t the distributors open the movie during the heat of summer? It’s perfect. Hear Gore scare you about the environment, walk outside into the heat = must be true. It would be like watching Jaws before a trip to the beach.

 

[Irvine511]

Now why on earth didn’t the distributors open the movie during the heat of summer? It’s perfect. Hear Gore scare you about the environment, walk outside into the heat = must be true. It would be like watching Jaws before a trip to the beach.

you should be a hollywood executive.

and considering the insane heat in DC this week, how wrong could Gore be?!?!?!

 

[LATwins]

We just saw it tonight. REALLY GOOD!! I hope to do as much as I can to save OUR world.

See it. It's well worth it. OH and for the record, Gore IS telling the truth about the issue!

Peace, Love and Rock 'n' Roll

 

[coemgen]

I'm looking forward to it. I just saw a special narrated by Tom Brokaw on the Discovery channel that was really good. It was "everything you need to know about global warming."

Very eye-opening stuff.

 

[trevster2k]

What is the position of critics on climate change?

Do you not think climate change is a real phenomenon?

Or do you think climate change is real and that human behaviour is not a factor?

Or do you think nothing is happening and we should just carry on as if nothing is wrong? And that this whole thing is another Y2K affair.

Just looking for some clarity on the positions of critics of climate change.

 

[MrsSpringsteen]

By Beth Daley, Globe Staff | September 12, 2006

Global warming caused by humans is largely responsible for heating hurricane-forming regions of the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, probably increasing the intensity of the storms, scientists reported yesterday.

The scientists used 22 computer models to simulate how the world's climate works and to help answer a key question: Are hurricanes becoming more intense because of natural influences, or man-made ones?

The scientists, reporting in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, said there was an 84 percent chance that human-induced climate change was responsible for most of the ocean warming . Oceans have warmed by about 1 degree in the past century, and natural influences alone could not account for that, they said.

Hurricanes draw their strength from warm seawater, and even small changes in temperature can give a storm much more energy, increasing its fury.

The findings, if borne out by further research, could mean that hurricanes with the strength of Katrina and Rita may become more common .

``Natural variability doesn't cut it for the observed ocean temperatures," said Ben Santer of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and the lead author of the report that looked at two key hurricane breeding grounds in the North Atlantic and Pacific oceans. ``The study suggests we are responsible."

Most climate scientists agree that hurricanes have become more active since 1995, especially in the North Atlantic. Some researchers say that the increased activity is part of a natural cycle, similar to one that peaked in the 1950s, and like that one, will last about 30 to 40 years.

But during the last year, a number of scientists have published research suggesting that hurricanes, especially in the North Atlantic, have gained unprecedented intensity since the 1970s. They said the magnitude of this increase in hurricane strength does not fit with the pattern of natural fluctuations, and thus attribute it to the release of heat-trapping gases, chiefly carbon dioxide, from power plants and cars, which warms the atmosphere and in turn the oceans.

Climate scientists not involved in the study said the analysis was thoughtful and rigorous -- although some warned about placing too much faith in the reliability of complex computer models. There is little doubt that humans are contributing to the warming of the oceans, they said, but more research is needed to better grasp how much.

Scientists who question the link between global warming and hurricane intensity said the study did not get at the real issue: whether hurricanes have really become more intense.

Hurricane measurements were less precise decades ago, said Christopher Landsea, a scientist at the National Hurricane Center, possibly resulting in underestimations of the strength of some storms. Furthermore, he added, the hurricane intensities that are being recorded today far surpass what would be expected from the ocean warming that has been observed, suggesting that the measurements may be flawed.

``That is a huge discrepancy," said Landsea. ``It is a well-done study -- but it didn't get at those issues."

Finding out why ocean temperatures are rising is vital to understanding threats to crowded coastlines.

Ideally, scientists would compare sea-surface temperatures today with readings from hundreds or even thousands of years ago to understand what natural climate cycles can do to ocean temperatures.

But ocean temperature records only go back about 150 years, and those data are incomplete.

So Santer and his group tried an approach that is a mainstay of scientists who study global warming. They used mathematical models -- sets of equations that describe the climate's behavior -- to create a virtual world without human influence.

They were trying to answer two questions: Is there a natural cycle contributing to a rise in sea-surface temperatures? And to what degree are humans contributing to the ocean warming?

No single model has been agreed upon to explain the complicated workings of the entire climate system; instead, scientists have devised 22 models, each using its own equations. Santer's team looked at all the outcomes to increase their confidence in the results.

The group ran 80 simulations on superfast computers to see what ocean temperature changes would occur over hundreds of years under different scenarios, from volcano eruptions that can temporarily cool sea temperatures to solar events that can heat the seas. Then they compared the results with actual ocean temperatures.

Overall, the group saw no clear natural reason or cycle in the North Atlantic and Pacific that could explain the warming of oceans over the past century. Instead, they concluded that human-caused climate change is the primary factor .

``The work that we've done closes the loop," that humans are warming the oceans, said Tom Wigley of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, who is a co-author of the study.

It's unclear what policy implications might come out of the study, although it will probably add to growing pressure from environmentalists and some legislators to pass laws limiting the release of carbon dioxide, a potent greenhouse gas, from power plants.

 

[A_Wanderer]

What is the position of critics on climate change?

Anywhere from it is non-existent to it being a natural phenomena or debating the magnitude of the process and how the best way to allocate resources is.

Do you not think climate change is a real phenomenon?

Definitely, climate has changed in the past and it is changing now.

Or do you think climate change is real and that human behaviour is not a factor?

Climate change is real, anthropogenic influences may be exaggerated.

Or do you think nothing is happening and we should just carry on as if nothing is wrong? And that this whole thing is another Y2K affair.

Y2K was absolutely nothing, global warming is a rallying point for those with political agendas; I think that it deserves research and investigation but introducing carbon caps is premature, we have no way of predicting what happens in the climate system so do something, do anything is a great way to loose a lot of money.

 

[phanan]

I got this on DVD for Christmas, and just watched it.

Fascinating film, although I think there was a bit too much of Gore in there, in terms of talking about his political history. When he stayed on the subject of global warming itself, it was quite educational and a most sobering subject.

Yes, Gore is a politician, but it's quite well-known that the environment has been his passion for years. I think he's showing his honesty here, and I find it ludicrous how some people in the world still find ways to discredit this subject. Quite sad, really.

And I don't think this was previously mentioned, but the news last week that a major ice shelf broke free is a very serious event, and I wish the media gave it as much focus as they do when Paris Hilton and Britney Spears go out on the town together...

http://www.cnn.com/2006/TECH/science/12/29/canada.arctic.ap/index.html

 

[randhail]

As we endure the one of the warmest Decembers on record in the Northeast I can't help but feel like global warming is a real serious occurence. I literally want to punch any newscaster that gives us a smug "isn't this weather great?" comment. Believe it or not some of us out there actually like winter.

 

[INDY500]

Seems to be no shortage of "winter" in Colorado.
I miss Winter as well, which is why I may have to start planning a ski vacation...paid for with all the money I'm saving on home-heating costs this year.

 

[verte76]

As we endure the one of the warmest Decembers on record in the Northeast I can't help but feel like global warming is a real serious occurence. I literally want to punch any newscaster that gives us a smug "isn't this weather great?" comment. Believe it or not some of us out there actually like winter.

Wow........it's not exactly every day we agree on an issue here randhail. I'm a lefty, you know.

 

[xaviMF22]

As we endure the one of the warmest Decembers on record in the Northeast I can't help but feel like global warming is a real serious occurence. I literally want to punch any newscaster that gives us a smug "isn't this weather great?" comment. Believe it or not some of us out there actually like winter.

yes..... I want my cold weather back

 

[A_Wanderer]

Weather is different than climate.

 

[shart1780]

I always find it silly when people say things like "OMG it was so hot here today! Global warming must be true!!!".

For every day someone points out how abnormally hot it was I can point out a day where it was friggin cold where I live.

 

[A_Wanderer]

The arguments that take day to day weather as evidence are flawed; since either hot or cold is taken as evidence of global climate change in action when these usually have much closer causes. Now given long enough data sets trends of warming and cooling can be discerned.

 

[LarryMullen's POPAngel]

As we endure the one of the warmest Decembers on record in the Northeast I can't help but feel like global warming is a real serious occurence. I literally want to punch any newscaster that gives us a smug "isn't this weather great?" comment. Believe it or not some of us out there actually like winter.

I didn't realize how much I liked it until we went through an entire December here in Michigan with only one day of snow, and no more in sight for the near future.

 

[redhotswami]

I'm going to see Gore speak in an otherwise waste-of-my-money-and-time conference in March I hope I get to meet him and speak with him about this movie.

 

[joyfulgirl]

I didn't realize how much I liked it until we went through an entire December here in Michigan with only one day of snow, and no more in sight for the near future.

...whereas we here in the desert of New Mexico are getting the kind of snow you normally get in Michigan (nearly 3 feet last week--my car hasn't moved in 5 days), and we had so much rain over the summer that mold has become the latest desert problem. This is not right.

 

[verte76]

...whereas we here in the desert of New Mexico are getting the kind of snow you normally get in Michigan (nearly 3 feet last week--my car hasn't moved in 5 days), and we had so much rain over the summer that mold has become the latest desert problem. This is not right.

Give us in Alabama some of that snow!

 

[randhail]

I'm shocked that Exxon would do such a thing. They really are trying to become the most evil organization on the planet.

http://www.boston.com/business/articles/2007/01/03/group_exxonmobil_paid_to_mislead_public/

Group: ExxonMobil paid to mislead public

January 3, 2007

WASHINGTON --ExxonMobil Corp. gave $16 million to 43 ideological groups between 1998 and 2005 in a coordinated effort to mislead the public by discrediting the science behind global warming, the Union of Concerned Scientists asserted Wednesday.

 

[phanan]

It really is quite pathetic.

 

[MrsSpringsteen]

I STILL haven't seen that movie, I really need to rent it

I love El Nino global warming, not so much...

LONDON (AP) - A resurgent El Nino and persistently high levels of greenhouse gases are likely to make 2007 the world's hottest year ever recorded, British climate scientists said Thursday.

Britain's Meteorological Office said there was a 60 percent probability that 2007 would break the record set by 1998, which was 1.20 degrees over the long-term average.

"This new information represents another warning that climate change is happening around the world," the office said.

The reason for the forecast is mostly due to El Nino, a cyclical warming trend now under way in the Pacific Ocean. The event occurs irregularly - the last one happened in 2002 - and typically leads to increased temperatures worldwide.

While this year's El Nino is not as strong as it was in 1997 and 1998, its combination with the steady increase of temperatures due to global warming from human activity may be enough to break the Earth's temperature record, said Phil Jones, the director of the Climatic Research unit at the University of East Anglia.

"Because of the warming due to greenhouse gases, even a moderate warming event is enough to push the global temperatures over the top," he said.

"El Nino is an independent variable," he said. "But the underlying trends in the warming of the Earth is almost certainly due to the release of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere."

El Nino can sometimes lead to milder weather, such as in the in the northeastern United States or the Atlantic Ocean, which is likely to see fewer hurricanes this year. However, it can also increase the severity of weather-related disasters, such as typhoons in the Philippines or drought in southern Africa and Australia, a country that is already suffering through its longest dry spell on record.

Environmental groups said the report added weight to the movement to control greenhouse gases.

"The evidence that we're doing something very dangerous with the climate is now amassing," said Campaign against Climate Change coordinator Philip Thornhill.

"We need to put the energy and priority (into climate change) that is being put into a war effort. It's a political struggle to get action done - and these reports help," Thornhill said.

 

[UberBeaver]

I just saw the movie, actually. All I got to say is, "Learn to swim."

 

[MrsSpringsteen]

It could reach 68 in NYC tomorrow

Of course it'll probably be 15 and snowing next week..

They're already saying 07 could be the warmest year on record

 

[joyfulgirl]

Still snowing here in the desert and down in the teens.

 

[Canadiens1131]

Give me back my fucking January snow, goddamit.

 

[randhail]

Yup, 70 degrees in the Northeast is entirely normal.

 

[Liesje]

I didn't realize how much I liked it until we went through an entire December here in Michigan with only one day of snow, and no more in sight for the near future.

I kinda wish it would snow because everything is dead and gray anyway. The snow tends to brighten things up a bit, since we get those TWO days with sun in December and January Everyone at work is thinking we're still going to get slammed. I'm not sure if the east side is different, but over here it's very common to get blizzard and ice storms through March and April, so we still have four months of bitter winter left and plenty of opportunity for some massive dumps.

With no clean, white snow, this is what west Michigan will look like until May - gray clouds, dead trees, and mud (don't let the grass fool you, it's not alive it's frozen with the ground so it's like walking on bricks or in mud).