They didn't even sell about 25-30% of the seats in the Oakland stadium, and aren't planning to (upper decks in the back). .
The Police played Oakland stadium in 2007 to 48,000 people in a normal stadium configuration. I'm sure with U2's 360 setup, they will be able to add several thousand seats beyond that.
When looking at the two markets, I think Philadelphia is the stronger market. Lincoln Financial Field is a 68,000 seat stadium and U2 should be able to easily sellout the first show. I'm confident they could fill a second show to at least 80% capacity.
Yes, Philly will get fans from nearby cities as nearby cities got Philly fans this year (yet not enough to fill up Fedex Field).
Not enough to fill up Fedex Field? There were nearly 85,000 people at that show! How could you not call that show filled up? One of the largest shows in U2's concert history, despite the fact that Charlottesville, which is closer to Washington DC than Philadelphia, stripped Washington DC of many northern Virginia fans that would normally go to DC for their U2 show.
And if NJ3 doesn't sell out, there's no point in adding another show only 90 minutes away down the Turnpike.
NJ3 will eventually sellout because its the last show of the tour in North America. It won't matter what they do in Philadelphia, the last show in the largest city in the country, which has already sold 70% of its tickets in one day will sellout.
Also try looking south of Philadelphia instead of north. There are no shows south of Philadelphia until you get to Miami Florida!!!!!!!! The closest show for fans in South Carolina, North Carolina, all of Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, West Virginia and Western Pennsylvania is the Philadelphia show.
Philadelphia can sellout a show on its own and then some.
By the way, just to show how impressive the Fedex Field attendance was this past September, take a look at the 20 largest attended non-festival ticketed shows in United States history below. Check out the show at #11!!!
Highest attended non-festival, ticketed shows in United States History!
1. U2 - Rose Bowl; Pasadena, Calif. (Oct. 25, 2009)
Attendance: 97,014
Gross: $9,960,036
2. The Who - JFK Stadium; Philadelphia, PA. (September 25, 1982)
Attendance: 91,451
Gross: $1,440,353
3., 4. Rolling Stones - JFK Stadium; Philadelphia, PA. (September 25-26, 1981)
Attendance: 181,564 (average 90,782 per show)
Gross: $2,859,633
5. , 6. , 7. , 8. Rolling Stones - LA Memorial Coliseum; Los Angeles, CA. (October 18-19; 21-22, 1989)
Attendance: - 360,068 (average 90,017 per show)
9. Rolling Stones - Superdome; New Orleans, LA. (December 5, 1981)
Attendance: 87,500
Gross: $1,531,250
10. U2 - John F. Kennedy Stadium, Philadelphia (Sept. 25, 1987)
Attendance: 86,145
Gross: $1,593,683
11. U2 - FedExField; Landover, Md. (Sept. 29, 2009)
Attendance: 84,754
Gross: $6,718,315
12. Journey - Rose Bowl; Pasadena, Calif. (July 2, 1982)
Attendance: 83,214
Gross: $1,373,031
13. The Who - LA Memorial Coliseum; Los Angeles, CA. (October 29, 1982)
Attendance: 83,000
Gross: $1,365,415
14., 15., 16., 17. Bruce Springsteen - LA Memorial Coliseum; Los Angeles, Calif. (Sept 27-30 & Oct 2, 1985)
Attendance: 331,892 (average 82,973 per show)
Gross: $5,688,445
18., 19. U2 - Giants Stadium; East Rutherford, NJ. (September 23-24, 2009)
Attendance: 161,810 (average 80,905 per show)
Gross: $16,128,950
20. Pink Floyd - JFK Stadium; Philadelphia, PA (September 19, 1987)
Attendance: 80,754