- Rubio has been given so many chances and has never managed to pull it off and it's still hard to fathom how he can win the nomination given the immigration bill he co-authored. Still, there's clearly a surge working for him in Iowa, and if that continues, he'll come out of that state with a healthy second or third place finish and will be extremely well positioned as the establishment candidate, even if his national support is going nowhere.
- Fiorina, Gilmore, Huckabee and Santorum will all drop out after Iowa. That should surprise absolutely nobody as they were the JV debaters last night.
- Carson should be done after Iowa. These people don't get that you only really have one surge in modern politics...once you go into freefall, your campaign is over. Fiorina climbed and fell, so did Bush. The media scrutiny leads the voters to take a good look at a leading (or second place) candidacy. Once the floor drops out from under you, it's all over. A poor result in Iowa (which is inevitable) will stop the Carson campaign from collecting anymore money and he'll have to close up shop for what's been the most head-scratching campaign I've ever witnessed.
- Rand Paul could drop out as early as Iowa, but he might get a bit of a boost going into caucus day (just like his dad). Regardless, his lack of funds or traction will likely mean an end to his campaign shortly after New Hampshire as I don't feel he's in it to necessarily make a point, rather he was in it to win it and isn't going to stick around if the voters have had their say and it's unlikely.
- Christie is done after New Hampshire. There's not enough time for him to turn it around there and he doesn't have a prayer in the less favorable southern states coming up on the calendar (states that will keep Cruz's candidacy alive, even if the media will try to make it look like Rubio vs. Trump from here on out if Cruz underwhelms in the first couple states).
- Kasich is also done after New Hampshire. He could potentially even win the state, but it's not going to matter. Conservatives aren't going to open up their coffers to the guy and winning that state won't help him nationally.
- Bush is a wild card, but he should really call it a day after New Hampshire, leaving the Super PAC to either attack Trump or the Democratic nominee. No point in embarrassing himself further in the less favorable states coming up on the calendar.
My guess is that the field will be pared down to Trump, Rubio and Cruz after New Hampshire. If the Trump campaign is really just a bunch of hot air and nobody turns out for the guy, it will be just Rubio and Cruz after New Hampshire. Trump mostly needs to win Iowa in order to keep momentum going, otherwise everything could fall apart soon. Cruz needs to win Iowa in order to cement his status as the anti-Trump candidate, bolster his national standing, and then take huge advantage of his Super Tuesday ground game. Rubio must to have a very, very good Iowa result in order to stay in the mix. A fairly disappointing final percentage out of Iowa will turn this into a Trump vs. Cruz thing real fast.
Basically, of the three people that can actually win the nomination, I think Rubio has the most to lose this Monday. A poor showing will turn this into a two-horse race fairly quickly as Rubio doesn't have much traction in New Hampshire nor would you expect him to do well in the South. I think Trump and Cruz can both survive a loss for very different reasons, but they still need a respectable number next to their name.