LPU2, you keep mentioning Obama's nationwide approval numbers, but that number doesn't really matter. The trend is bad news for him, and RCP puts his disapproval number higher than the approval. The election will come down to a number of swing states: Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania (potentially a GOP pickup), Virginia, and maybe a couple others.
Obama's approval numbers in those states as of August (most recent data I could find):
Ohio
Rasmussen: 53% disapprove (42% "strongly"), 46% approve
PPP: 54% disapprove, 42% approve. Independents disapprove 58-33. Healthcare opposed 53-38.
Quinippiac: 49% disapprove, 45% approve. Economic policies disapprove 54-41. Healthcare opposed 55-36.
Florida
Rasmussen: 50% disapprove (44% "strongly"), 41% approve. Healthcare opposed 49 (42% strongly) to 45.
PPP: 49% disapprove, 45% approve. Healthcare opposed 47-45.
Pennsylvania
Rasmussen: 54% disapprove (45% "strongly"), 46% approve.
PPP: 50% disapprove, 43% approve. Independents disapprove 61-32. Healthcare opposed 51-40.
Quinippiac: 49% disapprove, 46% approve. Independents disapprove 53-40. Would NOT re-elect Obama 48-42 (51-35 among Independents). Disapprove Obama's economic policies 55-40. Healthcare opposed 54-37.
Virginia
Rasmussen: 50% disapprove (40% strongly), 49% approve. Healthcare opposed 56-41.
Those are the numbers that will decide the election, and based on the November elections, I don't think they've changed much since August. If unemployment is 9.5 in the summer of 2012, and closes to 9.3 on election day, that won't save him. And if Romney's the nominee, he'll (Romney) no doubt be going in as the favorite.