SURVIVOR - Redemption Island

[Hewson]

Has anyone ever found an idol and not blabbed to at least one person?

Gary (Hawkins) Hogeboom with the original idol, different dynamic back then where he had to reveal he had it before the vote, so it only saved him for one week and it wasn't able to be used to blindside someone else.

Also, finding the clues and tossing them may not seem that big of a move. But if others had the clues and could not find the idol, they might get a *clue* about where it really is.

Surprised Grant hasn't questioned why there haven't been any more clues since Rob was originally sharing the clues with him. Maybe he thinks after the merge and change of camp locations that the idol went by the wayside.

 

[80sU2isBest]

I would vote out Natalie or Ashley next. Andrea is on the outs with them anyway, if Matt comes back, she's on the outs with him. She has no real alliance and can be voted out anytime. Time to split the girls up if you're Rob.

It's pretty clear to me what his strategy is: take Phillip (useless and hateful) and one of the girls - Natalie or Ashley (even more useless) to the F3. That pretty much assures him a victory, as it should be anyway.

The unfortunate thing here is that he is surrounded by exceptionally stupid people.

I think his strategy regarding Phillip will backfire. Steve called it out, and I think others will wise up as they get voted off. I think that if it's between Phillip and Rob, Phillip will win, simply because the jurors will want to see Rob's strategy bite him in the butt.

IMO, if Matt's in the finals against an Ometepe, no one else has a chance.

 

[maycocksean]

I think his strategy regarding Phillip will backfire. Steve called it out, and I think others will wise up as they get voted off. I think that if it's between Phillip and Rob, Phillip will win, simply because the jurors will want to see Rob's strategy bite him in the butt.

wow, that would be an extraordinary level of pettiness.

No coattail riders should win this game, and that's all the rest of Ometepe has been.

 

[deep]

your plan for Rob to make bold moves early just seems too risky, leaving Steve or Ralph in had so much more risks that staying the course. Now whoever goes, Rob can say he was loyal to his tribe, and lay off some of the blame on the others. All he has to do is ask who should go, and follow the suggestion.

As for pettiness influencing the votes, that how it has been going.
So in a 3 person final, I would love to see Phillip win the other two each getting one less vote than Phillip. Making Phillip the winner without even getting over 50%.

 

[80sU2isBest]

wow, that would be an extraordinary level of pettiness.

No coattail riders should win this game, and that's all the rest of Ometepe has been.

"Should" is the key word. But as we've seen in the past coattail riders do win this game frequently, and jurors do cast petty votes.

And I actually don't think those votes would be petty. Rob is banking on bringing in an unlikeable to the end because he is sure that will bring him victory. If jurors figure out that strategy and thwart it, I wouldn't call that petty. It's not as if he fooled everyone; it's just that the people who knew what he was doing (Zapatera) were powerless to do anything about it.

 

[maycocksean]

Here's my latest thought--perhaps Rob would prefer a jury of five Zapetera and four Ometepe. Unlike his own team mates, the Zaps can't claim that Rob "betrayed" them and thus are less likely to harbor hard feelings. It seems they'd be more likely to make a rational decision rather than one based on resentment at Rob's success. If he's sitting with Philip and Natalie, what would really motivate them to give the money to one of those two who did nothing in the game over Rob--certainly not sour grapes. And if those five are likely to vote for him, then it doesn't matter what his former team mates do.

The guy is a genius, definitely on track to go down as one of the greatest Survivor players ever.

 

[80sU2isBest]

The guy is a genius, definitely on track to go down as one of the greatest Survivor players ever.

I think Sugar was one of the greats, as well (in her first season, that is). She did what she set out to do - take out all the "bad guys".

 

[deep]

well

what happens next?

 

[80sU2isBest]

well

what happens next?

Grant and Ashley think Phil will be out next. Boy will they be mad, when it's Bye Bye Ashley, and then Grant.

Because of this, I think that based on past juries' petty voting records, it's doubtful Rob wins. He's backstabbed too many people, and with Ashley and Grant ousters likely coming soon, that list grows.

Actually, I've had this feeling that the editing is setting us up for a "Good" vs. "Evil" Showdown. I'm thinking the final 3 will include Rob ("Evil") vs. Matt or Mike ("Good")

 

[Hewson]

But Rob's not really being edited to look "evil" this time out.
In fact if anything he's being made to look like the ultimate player of the game. Every time another player has a notion, we get a Rob confessional showing us he is already a step ahead of that person...like last night when Phillip said he thought Rob was gonna take him to the final assuming he can beat him, but he has an "oral argument" that could change votes, then cut to Rob, "Phillip might have something up his sleeve"...plus the effort put forth in the immunity challenge, he's certainly not coming across as evil, they are editing to build him up, the question is will that be so we can think we've just seen the greatest player ever finally win, or do they build him up so we're stunned when he loses?

 

[80sU2isBest]

But Rob's not really being edited to look "evil" this time out.

I don't agree. I think he's being edited to look like an "evil genius cult leader".

 

[Sicy]

This is the Rob show. If he goes home the show dies.

lol.

 

[80sU2isBest]

This is the Rob show. If he goes home the show dies.

lol.

Ha, yeah, I think you're right. I think he'll be in the final 3, but I'm not sure he'll win.

 

[maycocksean]

Grant and Ashley think Phil will be out next. Boy will they be mad, when it's Bye Bye Ashley, and then Grant.

Because of this, I think that based on past juries' petty voting records, it's doubtful Rob wins. He's backstabbed too many people, and with Ashley and Grant ousters likely coming soon, that list grows.

Actually, I've had this feeling that the editing is setting us up for a "Good" vs. "Evil" Showdown. I'm thinking the final 3 will include Rob ("Evil") vs. Matt or Mike ("Good")

I disagree. He doesn't even need the votes of his own team-mates to win. I can't see Zapetera feeling that he "backstabbed" them and they will dominate the jury. Ironically, when it comes down to the jury vote, the roles will be reversed. As a team Zapetera wil have all the power and the Ometepe jurors will be powerless (provided the teams vote togeether).

The only real competition he would have is Matt in the finals. In that I agree with you.

And to be honest, I really want Rob to win.

I like Matt, but his reward is in heaven (and as a Christian, you know I mean that without irony; really, I think his influence on this season has been profound. Let the mockers mock: I'm becoming convinced that God really did keep on the show--and it had nothing to do with him winning the game.)

 

[BigMacPhisto]

Final 5 Boot: Grant
Final 5 (Again) Boot: Matt
Final 4 Boot: Ashley

Final 3: Rob/Phillip/Natalie


They've put in far too much effort to show that Rob's endgame involves bringing Phillip & Natalie to the end.


Jury:

Ashley - ?
Matt - ?
Grant - Rob
Andrea - Rob (no respect for Natalie, Phillip won't get any votes)
Mike - Rob
Ralph - Rob
Steve - Rob
Julie - Rob
David - Rob

Despite Natalie having more confessionals lately about showing her strategy and whatever else, I think it's mainly to make her look like a challenger against Rob. There's just not enough time spent showing her playing the game or Rob treating people like shit for him to lose at this point. I'm about 80% certain that the obvious Final 3 will happen and about 20% doubtful that it won't happen because the Redemption Island contestant will win immunities into the finals.

 

[Hewson]

about 20% doubtful that it won't happen because the Redemption Island contestant will win immunities into the finals.

This is the scenario by which Rob could lose easily. The RI returnee probably will need 2 individual immunity wins to get to the final 3, if its Matt or moreso if its Mike, thats highly possible, especially if Grant gets taken out just prior. Just seems an incredibly unfair advantage, especially with the new "just come in 3rd and you hang around" philosophy of Redemption Island.

 

[BigMacPhisto]

Tonight's the night! Clearly will be Grant or Ashley going home, probably Ashley giving the commercials showing Rob wanting to break up her and Natalie.

Rob is pretty much a lock to make it through tonight's episode safely which means he'll automatically make it to Day 37 and secure the days played record (to go along with his Most Seasons Played & Most Immunities Won records).

I really hope Matt returns from Redemption Island on Sunday's finale, only to be voted out for a third time, joining Survivor careerists Jerri Manthey, Rupert Boneham, Cirie Fields and James Clement in having such a dishonor! Of course, Matt will have managed to do it in one season which is so damn impressive.


Beyond starring in a new show about world travel, I wonder what's next for Mr. Rob Mariano. How about he re-teams up with Amber on a tenth anniversary edition of The Amazing Race?

 

[phanan]

I'm guessing everyone on the west coast has started watching...

This was a fantastic episode tonight. Great to watch all the conversation back and forth regarding different strategies. Obviously with Ashley winning immunity, it made it that much more interesting. And it's nice to see someone other than Rob actually playing the game now. For once, Ashley was thinking about the game - I didn't know she had it in her.

And Rob was great, letting the situation unfold so that Ashley and Grant went after each other - it took the focus off of him. He played it perfectly.

As for deciding between Grant and Natalie, it was the right move. If I'm Rob, I want Grant on Redemption Island with the hope that he's the one who comes back. Most of the jury will be the old Zapatera tribe; he'd rather have Grant back than one of the members of that tribe (or Matt). Now he's got a better chance of not having to face Mike or Matt at the end.

 

[deep]

If Ashley does not win immunity next time, Rob and Phillip will vote her out. That said, and with Rob still having an idol, he should be in pretty good shape to make it to the final.

 

[BigMacPhisto]

If Ashley does not win immunity next time, Rob and Phillip will vote her out. That said, and with Rob still having an idol, he should be in pretty good shape to make it to the final.

Nah. They'll be voting out the Redemption Island contestant since that person is a much bigger physical threat. Granted, if the RI returnee wins the Final Five immunity, then Ashley is toast.

Rob can (and surely will) play the hidden immunity idol at Final Five, so he's basically one challenge away from reaching the Final Three and winning this game. Neither Natalie or Phillip want to put a stop to that, so I don't see anybody challenging Rob. His closest call will be if the RI returnee wins immunity which would assuredly lead to him getting two votes (RI Returnee/Ashley), but again, it doesn't matter since he has the idol.

Also, the jury seemed to react very kindly to Rob talking about Amber and his daughter. They clearly like the guy and haven't really scoffed at him when asked about him in interviews or seeing him in recent episodes. I just don't see how he loses the $1 million at this point.

 

[BigMacPhisto]

Jeff Probst:

THE JURY
Once again, three people will make it to the final tribal council. After 39 days of incredible effort, their actions will be judged by a jury, which is comprised of people they have voted out of the game.

Will the jury be a bunch of bitter bitches intent on punishing the most deserving and rewarding the least offensive? It certainly wouldn’t be the first time. Jury management- it’s the most critical element to this game. Not only do you have to get to the end, which almost always requires betraying someone (before they betray you) but then you have to convince those same people you betrayed to vote for you for the million dollars.

It hurts my head.

I hope the jury rewards the best player, we’re due for a decent winner. Here’s my take on deserving/undeserving.

1. Boston Rob – Hands down the most deserving player… if he can make it to the end. Big IF.

2. Matt – If Matt gets off Redemption Island and makes it to the end I think he has a good shot of winning simply based on the “underdog” vote. However, if I was in the final against Matt, I’d make a strong case that while he may be the best “dueler” he is clearly the worst player and therefore not deserving of the money.

6. Natalie – Can’t win. If Natalie wins, then the jury should be taken to a small stream and dunked repeatedly until their bellies fill with guppies. I think Natalie did a good job and probably learned a lot about strategy from her mentor. But it’s not nearly enough.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Well, I'm pretty sure Natalie doesn't win now. It's either Rob or a lucky immunity run for someone from Redemption Island. Also, clearly Mr. Probst isn't happy with the run of Natalie W, Sandra & Fabio winning this game - all of which defeated people that played the game with much more intensity.

 

[Hewson]

Nah. They'll be voting out the Redemption Island contestant since that person is a much bigger physical threat. Granted, if the RI returnee wins the Final Five immunity, then Ashley is toast.

.

Unless Grant is the one who returns, then Ashley would be gone if she doesn't win immunity.

As for last night, as they were showing the scheming to get Ashley out, I said to the wife, "Obviously Ashley is gonna win immunity"...the editing is getting too easy to figure out.

Credit to the wife, when they were getting ready for the duel, she said "I don't see farm boy doing too well at the puzzle"...and sure enough man sweater dominated the maze, grabbed a huge lead and then got smoked on the puzzle.

I really don't like how RI is playing out. Mike is getting screwed, dominating in 4 person "duels" (by definition duel means between two) and having 2 others still hang in there with him. I assume we will have one final 4 way "duel" now and the winner (who I expect to be Mike, hope will be Grant and fear will be Matt) will go back in to make the 4 a 5, but who knows, they might drop them down to 3 before adding back in the RI returnee...hell they could take it to two and then plop the RI returnee back into the final 3 and basically hand them a miilon dollars if its Mike or Matt (that would be bush league city, but the RI returnee no matter how you slice it is gonna have a ridiculously unfair advantage in having a shot at being in the final 3).

 

[80sU2isBest]

Beyond starring in a new show about world travel, I wonder what's next for Mr. Rob Mariano. How about he re-teams up with Amber on a tenth anniversary edition of The Amazing Race?

No please, don't ruin my fave reality show. I am so sick of see Rob Mariano.

 

[Hewson]

Also, the jury seemed to react very kindly to Rob talking about Amber and his daughter. .

So just how long ago did they film this?
If you recall, on last season's reunion show, Rob was there and talked of Amber just giving birth to their second child. That was on Dec 19. So obviously Redemption Island had finished filming prior to that.
The final 3 have been waiting a pretty damn long time to find out which one of them won the million.

 

[Hewson]

No please, don't ruin my fave reality show. I am so sick of see Rob Mariano.

C'mon, having Rob and Amber on Amazing Race was fun...especially I think it was the first episode when the gay son said to his mother "I watched Survivor and Rob is dumb as a rock" predicting his failure, followed by the dumbfounded look on the kid's face when Rob shows up.

 

[phanan]

I really don't like how RI is playing out. Mike is getting screwed, dominating in 4 person "duels" (by definition duel means between two) and having 2 others still hang in there with him. I assume we will have one final 4 way "duel" now and the winner (who I expect to be Mike, hope will be Grant and fear will be Matt) will go back in to make the 4 a 5, but who knows, they might drop them down to 3 before adding back in the RI returnee...hell they could take it to two and then plop the RI returnee back into the final 3 and basically hand them a miilon dollars if its Mike or Matt (that would be bush league city, but the RI returnee no matter how you slice it is gonna have a ridiculously unfair advantage in having a shot at being in the final 3).

Agreed on RI. It should have ended when Matt came back the first time. And then to make it worse, you have multiple people involved now and as you stated, it's unfair to Mike. Now I bet Grant wins in his only "duel" appearance.

 

[Sicy]

What if they dont put anyone from RI back into the game until say.. final 3? Now that would put an interesting twist on it.

I agree with Jeff's analysis above. At this point Rob clearly deserves to win. Natalie is great and all but didnt do nearly enough to warrant winning a million. Matt could have a shot if he gets to come back in the game.

 

[deep]

What if they dont put anyone from RI back into the game until say.. final 3?

Seems like that would give returnee a big advantage.

All of his RI buddies would be inclined to vote for him.

Which may be the case if RI person makes final 3.

RI could be easiest route to the big win.

 

[Carek1230]

Already set the DVR for Sunday!

 

[deep]

Seems like that would give returnee a big advantage.

All of his RI buddies would be inclined to vote for him.

Which may be the case if RI person makes final 3.

RI could be easiest route to the big win.

I just remembered R I losers go home,
not to jury.

Will jury members be more inclined to vote fora R I returnee in final 3?