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Old 09-25-2008, 11:50 PM   #511
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Must say I'm rather proud of my states Representative, Richard Shelby and Jeff Sessions. Neither of who I supported in their elections, but whatever.

Richard Shelby:
Quote:
WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Congressional leaders say they are near an agreement on a $700 billion bailout package for Wall Street, but many Republican members of Congress are still balking at the deal.

"It will not solve problems, it will create more problems, we're rushing to judgment, that we do have stress in our market, but this is not the best way, we ought to look at alternatives," Sen. Richard Shelby, R-Alabama, said after emerging from a meeting at the White House with President Bush, congressional leaders and the presidential candidates.
Shelby, the top Republican on the Senate Banking Committee, said he did not believe an agreement had been reached, noting a group of leading economists have called the bailout a bad plan.
If Republican opposition to the plan persists it could prove to be a major stumbling block to final passage of the bailout package, which congressional leaders and the White House say must pass by the end of the weekend.
Jeff Sessions:
Quote:
"I'm not on board yet. I want to see this thing," Sen. Jeff Sessions, R-Alabama, said. "What I don't like about this -- and I'm very, very worried about it -- I think this is probably the greatest concession of legislative power in the history of the republic, almost."
'Major' GOP opposition to bailout plan remains - CNN.com
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Old 09-25-2008, 11:51 PM   #512
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Well be lucky you're not a shareholder - they were wiped out tonight.
Its times like these I'm glad I'm not wealthy enough to own stock.
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Old 09-25-2008, 11:52 PM   #513
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Expect home invasions and robberies to be on the rise as more and more banks close. I think it's time to buy everything you might need and just live paycheck to paycheck now.

Gold is a good start.
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Old 09-25-2008, 11:52 PM   #514
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According to one GOP lawmaker, some House Republicans are saying privately that they’d rather “let the markets crash” than sign on to a massive bailout.

“For the sake of the altar of the free market system, do you accept a Great Depression?” the member asked.
Does anybody think they will shut down the stock exchanges at some point tomorrow? Will it come to that?
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Old 09-25-2008, 11:52 PM   #515
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I'm sure. I just hope my friend's husband still has a job when the dust settles.
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Old 09-25-2008, 11:53 PM   #516
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Does anybody think they will shut down the stock exchanges at some point tomorrow? Will it come to that?
What could be the ramifications of that?
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Old 09-25-2008, 11:54 PM   #517
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Its times like these I'm glad I'm not wealthy enough to own stock.
My company's stock dropped quite a bit over the last year. It's a bummer, but the options I have can sit there until the cows come home, and hopefully the price will go back up again. If not, oh well. It's not like I have enough in there to make me jump out a window if they don't go back up.
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Old 09-25-2008, 11:54 PM   #518
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Its times like these I'm glad I'm not wealthy enough to own stock.
Except that in this day and age it isn't just the rich that own stocks.

You could be a relatively poor person with a company pension plan and if that plan had been investing in the wrong things, bye bye retirement money.
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Old 09-25-2008, 11:56 PM   #519
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Except that in this day and age it isn't just the rich that own stocks.

You could be a relatively poor person with a company pension plan and if that plan had been investing in the wrong things, bye bye retirement money.
That is very true. I was just speaking for myself seeing as I'm not in the position to personally invest or have a company pension investment plan either. I should have put that differently.
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Old 09-25-2008, 11:56 PM   #520
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Heck, I'm starting to feel happy that I'm a renter and don't have a mortgage these days.
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Old 09-26-2008, 12:00 AM   #521
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They're all too busy still fretting about Palin.
Man, you're obsessed...
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Old 09-26-2008, 12:19 AM   #522
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Except that in this day and age it isn't just the rich that own stocks.

You could be a relatively poor person with a company pension plan and if that plan had been investing in the wrong things, bye bye retirement money.
One person I've gotten to know here, he and his wife retired only a few years ago, lost about $100,000 due to the crisis already. That was before last Thursday.
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Old 09-26-2008, 03:46 AM   #523
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I've got a question, and forgive my stupidity for not knowing the answer. Who exactly is working on this bailout bill? Senators & Congressmen? Are there any economists? Other financial "experts" or persons of knowledge?
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Old 09-26-2008, 07:31 AM   #524
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Originally Posted by Lila64 View Post



I've got a question, and forgive my stupidity for not knowing the answer. Who exactly is working on this bailout bill? Senators & Congressmen? Are there any economists? Other financial "experts" or persons of knowledge?
I'm not quite sure as I'm not really up to date to how it all works in the USA, but there are committees dealing with legislation on specialised subjects. From what I've read, the majority of work on this bailout bill is done by the Senate banking committee and the banking committee of the Congress. So it is being handled by politicians who should have some knowledge about economics and financial institutions...
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Old 09-26-2008, 07:44 AM   #525
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Very interesting article about polling and methodologies used:

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Ann Selzer on Youth & Minority Turnout

Ann Selzer, as you may know, is among the best pollsters in the business. In fact, we have her firm, Selzer & Co., rated as the single best pollster out of the 32 companies that we evaluated. Polling for the Des Moines Register, she nailed both the Democratic and Republican outcomes in the Iowa caucus, races that other pollsters had a great deal of trouble with.

Selzer's polls, as you also may know, have tended to have significantly better numbers for Barack Obama than most other agencies. In Indiana, for instance, Selzer has the race at Obama +3, whereas most other polling firms show John McCain with a (small) lead. In Michigan, while several polls have shown Obama with a fairly large lead, Selzer's poll for the Detroit Free Press pegs the race at Obama +13, the largest Obama lead in any current poll of the state.

Clearly this is not random variance; the Obama "house effect" is highly statistically significant. So I asked Selzer what she might be doing differently from other pollsters.

Selzer thinks that a lot of pollsters may be undercounting the youth vote, and potentially also the black vote. Young voters are becoming harder and harder to reach. They are in the habit of screening their phone calls. More problematically still, a great number of them (roughly 50 percent of voters under 30) rely principally or exclusively on cellphones, which most pollsters (including Selzer) will not call.

Pollsters can attempt to work around this problem by weighting the young voters they are able to reach more heavily; indeed, it is imperative that they make at least some attempt at weighting if they want to produce accurate results. But Selzer says she knows of at least one prominent polling firm -- she would not mention them by name -- which is not weighting by age groups at all.

Moreover, many of the pollsters that do weight by age group may be doing so -- to her mind -- in the wrong way. Specifically, they tend to use the 2004 election as a benchmark, when 17 percent were aged 18-29. Selzer uses census bureau data as her benchmark instead; among American adults aged 18 and up, about 22 percent age 18-29. This might not seem like a large difference, but given Obama's strong performance among young voters, it makes a difference of about 1.5 points in the net Obama-McCain margin.

Mind you, Selzer is not necessarily assuming that 22 percent of the electorate will be under-30 voters. She is using that as her starting point, and then using her likely voter screen to refine her turnout estimate. For instance, suppose that 60% of voters aged 18-29 pass her likely voter screen, as do 70% of voters aged 30 and up. In this case, the algebra would dictate that 19.5% of her likely voter electorate would be age 18-29:

... Percentage of % Passing Likely
Group Population Voter Screen
=================================================
Age 18-29 22% (A) 60% (B)
Age 30+ 78% (C) 70% (D)
=================================================

... Percentage of
Group Electorate Equation
=================================================
Age 18-29 19.5% (A*B)/((A*B)+(C*D))
Age 30+ 80.5% (C*D)/((A*B)+(C*D))

There is nothing particularly difficult about this algebra. But that may not be preventing some pollsters from getting it wrong. They may fix the youth voter figure at 17%, regardless of what their turnout model says (and ignoring the fact that youth voter turnout increased by 52% as a share of the Democratic primary electorate). Worse yet, they may start with the 17% and then apply their likely voter model, which has the effect of double-counting young voters' lower propensity to turn out. Or they may simply not stratify their sample by age at all, which creates even worse problems.

A parallel problem could very well be in effect among groups like African-Americans and Latinos. And Selzer told me that pollsters are having another, very peculiar problem with the black vote. Specifically, many respondents, but especially (she believes) black voters, are refusing to disclose their race to interviewers. This wreaks havoc with turnout models, and particularly poorly-designed turnout models.

Selzer is taking a big gamble on this election, as her results have tended to stand out from those of other pollsters. But she is meticulous in how she does her polling, and Selzer's polls have not had any particular partisan lean in previous election cycles. Don't be surprised if her gamble pays off again.
FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right: Ann Selzer on Youth & Minority Turnout
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