Iowa Predictions

[anitram]

Well, I wouldn't say that. How else would you explain an incompetent boob like Dubya being elected twice in a row in the Dems have such a strong backing in this country?

The Supreme Court stated that it would irreparably damage candidate Bush to keep counting the votes in Florida so that explains #1.

#2 is a mix of Kerry not being ideal and Bush shamelessly frightening your population into submission.

This is all based on the electoral college. Regardless of the candidates in November, you're maybe going to look at a half a dozen states. The other 40+ will go the way they always do. National polls really mean nothing.

 

[deep]

national polls right now mean NOTHING.

In a few weeks
very good chance
Iowa means NOTHING.

 

[2861U2]

the Republicans have always hated blacks

Come on Irvine, don't say that when it is blatantly false. You're smarter than that. I could reply with the whole "Democrats hate so-and-so" argument if I wanted, but I'd rather not.

 

[Irvine511]

Well, I wouldn't say that. How else would you explain an incompetent boob like Dubya being elected twice in a row in the Dems have such a strong backing in this country?

i'm talking specifically about the 2008 elections -- it really hasn't started yet and national polls do more to indicate name recognition than anything else. why is Rudy winning nationally? why did Hillary have a double digit lead over Obama as of yesterday?

However, in 10-20 years, I think the US will be predominately liberal, as many of those 18-20 year olds you mentioned will have grown up and will probably remain as they are politically, and they will influence their children, and so on.

everything is trending blue. look at Virginia. look at the mountain West. yes, Americans will probably retain their "conservative" values of lower taxes, smaller government, and general sense of patriotism and righteousness at the core of whatever might be considered American "ideals." conservatives have co-opted these things, and done so quite well.

but as social issues go, as universal health care goes, as distrust of the need for American military intervention in whatever foreign hotspot goes, all is trending to the Left.

 

[Irvine511]

Come on Irvine, don't say that when it is blatantly false. You're smarter than that. I could reply with the whole "Democrats hate so-and-so" argument if I wanted, but I'd rather not.

you've heard of the Southern Strategy, yes?

Willie Horton?

Welfare Queens?

okay, they don't "hate" blacks. they demonize them in order to get votes from voters who hate blacks.

 

[maycocksean]

Lincoln was a great man with great skill. I don't see that in Obama.

Many people didn't see that in Lincoln either. They thought him unsophisticated, unintelligent, a country rube completely unsuited for high office--he wasn't even particularly compellling as a public speaker by their standards (The Gettysburg Address was not well reviewed. Considered too short for one thing.). He was often compared to an ape.

The key is not just--this guy has held office for a bunch of years, this guy's run a state (lot of good that did us with Bush), or this persons been around the Washington beltway a time or two--it's how does this person think? How does this person approach the issues? Are they business as usual or are they thinking differently. I think Obama has what it takes to be a great leader and a great president--if he has the guts to stick to who he is and not become watered down by the process of getting there.

 

[Irvine511]

Sure Stowe's book may have been a turning point.

it was the "brokeback mountain" of it's time.

an emotional argument, not a political one.

 

[Irvine511]

In a few weeks
very good chance
Iowa means NOTHING.

that could well be true.

but can't you, passionate anti-racist that you are, find something good about a "clean, articulate" black man winning a 95% white state?

 

[LemonMelon]

i'm talking specifically about the 2008 elections

Yeah, sorry, I figured that out and edited my post accordingly. And you're right. At this point, national polls are nothing but name recognition and are a general popularity contest. This thing is far from over; many skeletons left to drag out of the closet, botched debates, and general mudslinging left to come.

 

[maycocksean]

If I watch a fellow human being being beaten to death by his slave owning master. I hope I would risk my life to save him.
Not read a book.

But what's your point about John Brown making more of a difference than Lincoln?

 

[maycocksean]

Come on Irvine, don't say that when it is blatantly false. You're smarter than that. I could reply with the whole "Democrats hate so-and-so" argument if I wanted, but I'd rather not.

He's right. They only started hating blacks in the past 40 years or so. Before that it was the Democrats (especially in the South) that were anti-black.

 

[Earnie Shavers]

Huckabee

 

[Irvine511]

He's right. They only started hating blacks in the past 40 years or so. Before that it was the Democrats (especially in the South) that were anti-black.

'tis fun to be part of a despised minority, no?

 

[2861U2]

He's right. They only started hating blacks in the past 40 years or so. Before that it was the Democrats (especially in the South) that were anti-black.

Tell me how Republicans hate black people.

 

[deep]

My argument is simply this--if a man of little "experience" could do his job well in perhaps the most crucial point in our nations history, how can we say that a similar person can't do the same now.

I have very low expectations for Obama

and if he gets the Dem nomination
I expect to vote for him

to be honest
I had very low opinion of Bill Clinton's qualifications in 1992 and did not vote for him

however, by 96 I was quite impressed with him and it was easy to vote for him over Bob Dole, his best days were behind him.

in 2000 I had extremely low expectations for W and easily voted for Gore
W is amazing, he keeps making me lower my opinion beyond what I thought was possible

so Obama, if you get the nom
please be like Clinton in 92
and surprise me with skills beyond my estimation.

 

[BVS]

I guess my young mind would answer that most Americans support smaller taxes, a strong defense and traditional values which at times emphasize religion. And with some 90% of Americans being religious, this makes sense.

And here's where I think you and many conservatives don't understand government or either don't bother to understand the government.

Yes, less tax is great in theory, but when you want to wage an endless war or build a wall, this makes no sense what so ever. Your base just comes off as either clueless or selfish...

Strong defense is a great old school term to use, but means nothing today. We aren't in an arms race anymore. Tell me exactly what "strong defense" means to you today. Because honestly in Iraq our biggest problem is that we don't have enough personal...

And honestly when it comes to traditional values, don't get me started. "Traditional" values have nothing to do with Jesus' values'

 

[maycocksean]

'tis fun to be part of a despised minority, no?

Indeed. But it's like we're a little less despised these days. . .if Iowa is any indication.

the day is coming, Irvine. . .the day is coming. Stay in the fight.

 

[maycocksean]

Tell me how Republicans hate black people.

I admit to a little bit of hyperbole. "Hate" is a strong word. (It's also can be subtle so that's why I say a "little bit" of hyperbole).

But the Republican party has exploited racism to help their candidates. Harold Ford is the most recent example of this.

 

[anitram]

But the Republican party has exploited racism to help their candidates. Harold Ford is the most recent example of this.

And now more (white) women voted for Obama than Hillary.

So the Republicans are really going to have to push those commercials before all these women go black and never look back.

This one time I was in Jamaica...

 

[deep]

But what's your point about John Brown making more of a difference than Lincoln?

I think

I said it the other way around

that Lincoln is over rated (in my opinion)

and John Brown - is a true hero - almost forgotten (again, my opinion)

a person can lead in the right direction
and if not many follow
it does not take away from the heroic effort

on a side note
Big Mama Thornton's - Hound Dog
is the real deal for me

But most people are only familiar with Elvis Presley's - Hound Dog

 

[maycocksean]

And now more (white) women voted for Obama than Hillary.

So the Republicans are really going to have to push those commercials before all these women go black and never look back.

This one time I was in Jamaica...

Those commercials are aimed at motivating the base more than the center, I think.

As for going black. . .my wife can vouch for that!

 

[2861U2]

I admit to a little bit of hyperbole. "Hate" is a strong word. (It's also can be subtle so that's why I say a "little bit" of hyperbole).

But the Republican party has exploited racism to help their candidates. Harold Ford is the most recent example of this.

Neither party has been extraordinary when it comes to civil rights. But simply comparing the GOP to the Democrats (Robert Byrd, anti school-choice, anti Civil Rights Act and Voting Rights Act, among others) they ain't much worse. Let's not forget it's the current President who has appointed the two highet blacks ever in American government.

 

[deep]

I admit to a little bit of hyperbole. "Hate" is a strong word. (It's also can be subtle so that's why I say a "little bit" of hyperbole).

But the Republican party has exploited racism to help their candidates. Harold Ford is the most recent example of this.

Republicans don't have any problems with blacks that don't want special rights.

 

[maycocksean]

I think

I said it the other way around

that Lincoln is over rated (in my opinion)

and John Brown - is a true hero - almost forgotten (again, my opinion)

a person can lead in the right direction
and if not many follow
it does not take away from the heroic effort

on a side note
Big Mama Thornton's - Hound Dog
is the real deal for me

But most people are only familiar with Elvis Presley's - Hound Dog

Got it. Lincoln overrated. John Brown underrated.

Fair enough.

I would actually agree that Lincoln is overrated, but only in the sense that no one can be as great as he as often been lionized to be. (Certainly habeaus corpus wasn't of great concern to him, for one thing). Even so, he was still pretty great.

Also on a side note: I do a pretty good karaoke of "Hound Dog."

 

[BVS]

Tell me how Republicans hate black people.

Tell me what your party does to help leveling the playing field for minorities...

They were the last to join the civil rights movement, they were the last to join the women's rights movement, your party is last for every social movement known to mankind, etc...

They claim minority actions are racists but they do nothing to try and end the cycle of poverty that strikes minorities.

They have a very non-white voting record since experience is so important to you.

 

[maycocksean]

They were the last to join the civil rights movement, they were the last to join the women's rights movement, your party is last for every social movement known to mankind, etc...

whoa, whoa! Overstating, overstating!

You've got to qualify that you mean the Republican party of the past 40 years (or less), beyond that you don't have much of a case for this argument. . .

 

[maycocksean]

Neither party has been extraordinary when it comes to civil rights. But simply comparing the GOP to the Democrats (Robert Byrd, anti school-choice, anti Civil Rights Act and Voting Rights Act, among others) they ain't much worse. Let's not forget it's the current President who has appointed the two highet blacks ever in American government.

In recent years, the Republican party has used racism as a tool to gain votes for their side. Give me an example of the Democratic party doing the same? (And don't even bother to mention Joe Biden. That wasn't a campaign commercial or strategy, that was an old-school white guy letting his racism slip much like Trent Lott did).

I'm not saying anything about any individual in the Republican party and one does have to credit the diversity of Bush's administration--but the party is definitely the one that courts the racist vote.

 

[anitram]

And what the Republican party has done re: gays and lesbians is really too shameful for words.

 

[BVS]

whoa, whoa! Overstating, overstating!

You've got to qualify that you mean the Republican party of the past 40 years (or less), beyond that you don't have much of a case for this argument. . .

You're right, I should have said social conservatives, but still my point stands true. Social conservatives regardless of what party have always been on the wrong side of history.

 

[deep]

Got it. Lincoln overrated.

I have two hard back books on Lincoln I need to read. One by Gore Vidal, I know it will somewhat be fictionalized, but I really enjoyed his book on Burr.

Also, I have one called
Lincoln's Melancholy: How Depression Challenged a President and Fueled His Greatness.
I heard a lecture by the author and bought the book.

perhaps I should read to be better informed.

But why bother
I can just go with my gut, like W.