MLB 2K5 Down the Stretch Edition

[U2@NYC]

I realize it's only one game, but how good did Craig Hansen for the Sox last night? It makes me wonder why this kid wasn't called up sooner.

The only thing that matters is that they lost and that now the Yankees are 0.5 games behind...

 

[MrBrau1]

The only thing that matters is that they lost and that now the Yankees are 0.5 games behind...

You should be happy. He's a NY boy.

 

[randhail]

Right. Because of the the trouble the Sox have had with the bullpen, Hansen's performance means nothing? Even if the Sox don't make the playoffs, I'll still sleep well knowing that they weren't the victims of the greatest collapse in the history of sports.

 

[U2@NYC]

Right. Because of the the trouble the Sox have had with the bullpen, Hansen's performance means nothing? Even if the Sox don't make the playoffs, I'll still sleep well knowing that they weren't the victims of the greatest collapse in the history of sports.

Don't cheat yourself.

If the Red Sox does not make the playoffs, you will be pretty mad.

 

[phanan]

Funny how you reappear all of the sudden but go away when the Yankees suck...

 

[MrBrau1]

Funny how you reappear all of the sudden but go away when the Yankees suck...

That's cause many younger Yankee fans "appeared" in 1996. In their fan lives, the Yanks have never missed the playoffs.

What the Yanks need is a period like the 80's and early 90's again. Purge their fanbase of the many fairweathers.

The Sox need it to. Since last year I've met many Sox fans who don't know who Jim Rice or Dwight Evans were.

 

[phanan]

Nobody played right field in Fenway better than Evans.

 

[Imarocker]

I don't know why all the sox fans think that last year was the biggest collapse. there have been bigger ones, like the Phils in the 60's, the Blue Jays in 87, & this year it will be the white sox blowing a 15 game lead.
last year was just a fluke, won't happen again till the year 2090

 

[MrBrau1]

I don't know why all the sox fans think that last year was the biggest collapse.

Denial ain't just a river in Egypt.

It was the first time a team up 3-0, didn't advance. It was a history making comeback/choke.

 

[MrBrau1]

Maybe Ortiz will win the AL East by himself.

Counting last nite, I just watched him hit home runs in his last 3 at bats.

 

[zoney!]

I don't know why all the sox fans think that last year was the biggest collapse. there have been bigger ones, like the Phils in the 60's, the Blue Jays in 87, & this year it will be the white sox blowing a 15 game lead.
last year was just a fluke, won't happen again till the year 2090

Do not want to admit it...but do not forget the 1969 Cubs (Cubs fans haven't forgotten).

 

[phanan]

I have to say if Ortiz keeps this up and the Sox win the AL East, he may yet win the MVP, even if he is a DH. No DH has ever put numbers up like this...

 

[speedracer]

I don't know why all the sox fans think that last year was the biggest collapse. there have been bigger ones, like the Phils in the 60's, the Blue Jays in 87, & this year it will be the white sox blowing a 15 game lead.
last year was just a fluke, won't happen again till the year 2090

Well, the Chicago White Sox haven't lost the pennant yet.

Here are my back-of-the-envelope calculations:

Probability of blowing a 6-game lead in 12 games ('64 Phillies): .7%

Probability of blowing a 14-game lead in 73 games ('78 Red Sox): 1%

Probability of blowing a 12-game lead in 45 games ('95 Angels): .6%

Probability of losing 4 games in a row ('04 Yankees): 6.25%

All these probabilities are calculated assuming that each game is 50-50.

From a purely probabilistic standpoint, winning 4 games in a row is clearly much more likely than any of these epic pennant collapses.

But out of 239 times a team has gone down 3-0 (in MLB, NBA, and NHL playoffs), only 3 times has the team come back to win -- that's 1.3% of the time. At 6.25%, you'd expect this to happen 15 times. Sigma (the standard deviation) for the number of events in 239 tries is 3.7, so the actual result is more than 3 sigmas away. So it's happened much less often than expected.

Meanwhile, epic pennant collapses have happened about as often as expected during the 100-year history of baseball.

The obvious explanation is that there are huge psychological barriers that come into play when trying to overcome a 3-0 deficit in the playoffs. You might say that is stupid, and that teams that go down 3-0 should sack it up and start playing. And you'd probably be right.

Naturally, none of this diminished my joy when the Red Sox won.

Oh, by way of explanation: I'm a mathematician. If you're in college or have access to community college/online courses, and you're in any way serious about sports, social science or politics, I strongly encourage you to take a basic course in statistics when you get the chance. It'll really help you understand this world we live in and make you less susceptible to being fooled by people/politicians/talking heads who play fast and loose with numerical figures.

 

[MrsSpringsteen]

Ortiz is the MVP. If they give it to A Fraud it will be like dimpled and hanging chads all over again. He will be the MVP just like Bush is the President and not Gore.

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

well we certainly did enough statistical analysis between pujols and jones... so why not do it with a-rod and pappi. first thing to throw out is the "he's carrying his team" factor... both players are surrounded by all-star caliber hitters. so let's not even discuss that.

alex rodriguez...
150games, 563 at bats, 113 runs, 180 hits, 26 doubles, 1 triple, 45 homeruns, 120 RBIs, 15 stolen bases, .320 batting average, .419 on base percentage, .609 slugging percentage

with runners in scoring position...
.291 average, 9 homers, 72 RBIs

with runners in scoring position, 2 outs...
.291 average, 5 homers, 32 RBIs

"close and late"
.296 average, 4 homers, 12 RBIs

in september...
.321 average, 5 homers, 15 RBIs

bonus
--a-rod is a leading candidate for the AL gold glove at third base

negative
--has purple lips


david ortiz...
148 games, 559 at bats, 114 runs, 169 hits, 38 doubles, 1 triple, 46 homeruns, 140 RBIs, 1 stolen base, .302 batting average, .397 on base percentage, .621 slugging percentage

runners in scoring position
.345 average, 7 homers, 85 RBIs

runners in scoring position, 2 outs
.370 average, 5 homers, 33 RBIs

"close and late"
.331 average, 10 homers, 31 RBIs

september
.358 average, 10 homers, 22 RBIs

bonus
--uncanny ability to get the big hit in the big game

negative
--is a DH

so there ya go... stat wise, advantage ortiz. if ortiz played the field, he would be the clear choice for MVP. but many voters will hold the fact that he's a DH over him... so frankly, i give him only a slight edge over a-rod if the MVP voting ended today.

if the yankees overtake the red sox and win the AL east, a-rod will win the MVP by a very small margin. if red sox wins the division, ortiz will win by a comfortable margin.


and in an unrelated stat... i was absolutely shocked to see that david ortiz, who hangs right over the plate and is putting up beastly numbers, has been hit by a pitch exactly one damn time all season. fancy shmansy a-rod, on the other hand, with his open stance, very much not hanging over the plate, has been hit by a pitch 15 times.

 

[Hewson]

The Sox need it to. Since last year I've met many Sox fans who don't know who Jim Rice or Dwight Evans were.

Probably my 2 favorite Sox players all time.

I almost literally bumped into Jim Rice on Aug 23 while heading to the Stones' show at Fenway, he was heading into the NESN studio for pregame, dressed in shorts and sneakers, carrying his suit and fancy boots. I like hearing some of Rice's criticism of players getting days off these days, I remember he played 163 games in 1978, still one of the greatest offensive seasons ever considering the era and the numbers he put up. The man should be in the hall of fame, had he stayed healthy enough to play 1 more season and hit the 400 HR level, it'd be a no brainer.

As for Dewey Evans, nobody played the game harder and nobody will ever play RF at Fenway as well. At the start of his career he was a below average hitter but worked himself into an above average hitter as his career progressed. Unparallelled work ethic.

 

[U2@NYC]

Funny how you reappear all of the sudden but go away when the Yankees suck...

Yup, it is funny.... maybe for you

Go Tampa Bay!!!!!

 

[Headache in a Suitcase]

Probably my 2 favorite Sox players all time.

I almost literally bumped into Jim Rice on Aug 23 while heading to the Stones' show at Fenway, he was heading into the NESN studio for pregame, dressed in shorts and sneakers, carrying his suit and fancy boots. I like hearing some of Rice's criticism of players getting days off these days, I remember he played 163 games in 1978, still one of the greatest offensive seasons ever considering the era and the numbers he put up. The man should be in the hall of fame, had he stayed healthy enough to play 1 more season and hit the 400 HR level, it'd be a no brainer.

As for Dewey Evans, nobody played the game harder and nobody will ever play RF at Fenway as well. At the start of his career he was a below average hitter but worked himself into an above average hitter as his career progressed. Unparallelled work ethic.

there was a kid at camp this year who looked just like jim rice, only a little fatter... we called him "overweight jim rice"

i laughed.

 

[phanan]

negative
--has purple lips

This will be the deciding factor.

 

[MrsSpringsteen]

The Sox yesterday made all of the rookies dress in drag before departing the clubhouse for the flight to Tampa. Local kid Manny Delcarmen had the best -- or worst -- costume of the bunch. Delcarmen was decked out in a black-and-teal Witchy La Bouf costume, complete with hat, bustier, tutu, and fishnet hose. 'My mom is going to love this,' he said."

 

[Numb1075]

I was actually lucky enough to get "behind the scenes" access into Shea stadium last year (knew a security guy working there)....I got into the dugout, on field for BP, in bullpen and chatted w/ Al Leiter, got lots of autographs etc...

but my point is, the Pittsburgh Pirate rookies had to do this as well. I was 5 feet from them as they strolled by wearing such ludicrous outfits as those above. it was awsome

 

[Imarocker]

Below is the AL MVP's since the DH was started...

2004 Vladimir Guerrero Anaheim RF
2003 Alex Rodriguez Texas SS
2002 Miguel Tejada Oakland SS
2001 Ichiro Suzuki Seattle RF
2000 Jason Giambi Oakland 1B
1999 Ivan Rodriguez Texas C
1998 Juan Gonzalez Texas OF
1997 Ken Griffey, Jr. Seattle OF
1996 Juan Gonzalez Texas OF
1995 Mo Vaughn Boston 1B
1994 Frank Thomas Chicago 1B
1993 Frank Thomas Chicago 1B
1992 Dennis Eckersley Oakland P
1991 Cal Ripken, Jr. Baltimore SS
1990 Rickey Henderson Oakland OF
1989 Robin Yount Milwaukee OF
1988 Jose Canseco Oakland OF
1987 George Bell Toronto OF
1986 Roger Clemens Boston P
1985 Don Mattingly New York 1B
1984 Willie Hernandez Detroit P
1983 Cal Ripken, Jr. Baltimore SS
1982 Robin Yount Milwaukee SS
1981 Rollie Fingers Milwaukee P
1980 George Brett Kansas City 3B
1979 Don Baylor California OF
1978 Jim Rice Boston OF
1977 Rod Carew Minnesota 1B
1976 Thurman Munson New York C
1975 Fred Lynn Boston OF
1974 Jeff Burroughs Texas

as you can see no DH has won & none will, just not that important of a position to warrant it.

 

[phanan]

Yet there are a couple of pitchers on there who only participate once every five games...

And as far as I know, we're entering uncharted territory here because never has there been a DH who has put up these types of numbers.

 

[MrBrau1]

Yet there are a couple of pitchers on there who only participate once every five games...

And as far as I know, we're entering uncharted territory here because never has there been a DH who has put up these types of numbers.

Exactly. If a pitcher can win it, so can a DH.

Simple logic.

 

[randhail]

as you can see no DH has won & none will, just not that important of a position to warrant it.

That's a great way to look at things.



DHs contribute nothing to the game of baseball. Call Bud up that list of MVPs and I'm sure he'll be convinced to abolish the DH.

 

[I'm Ready]

i think travis hafner should be the mvp

a-rod maybe though because if you think the yankees are nowhere without him

 

[randhail]

a-rod maybe though because if you think the yankees are nowhere without him

The Red Sox would be in deeper shit without Ortiz than the Yanks without Slappy

 

[I'm Ready]

The Red Sox would be in deeper shit without Ortiz than the Yanks without Slappy

haha slappy...

I actually think if you take away ortiz and a-rod neither team would be very good

the redsox would still be better though

 

[zoney!]

Well, the Chicago White Sox haven't lost the pennant yet.

Here are my back-of-the-envelope calculations:

You cannot apply math to the Chicago White Sox...even if it is "fuzzy math."

Math requires some logic.

White Sox and logic...oil and water.

 

[MrBrau1]

haha slappy...

I actually think if you take away ortiz and a-rod neither team would be very good

the redsox would still be better though

If the playoffs started now, the Red Sox would be playing golf.