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Old 09-20-2005, 12:26 PM   #241
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Originally posted by randhail
I realize it's only one game, but how good did Craig Hansen for the Sox last night? It makes me wonder why this kid wasn't called up sooner.
The only thing that matters is that they lost and that now the Yankees are 0.5 games behind...
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Old 09-20-2005, 12:33 PM   #242
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Originally posted by U2@NYC


The only thing that matters is that they lost and that now the Yankees are 0.5 games behind...
You should be happy. He's a NY boy.
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Old 09-20-2005, 12:35 PM   #243
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Right. Because of the the trouble the Sox have had with the bullpen, Hansen's performance means nothing? Even if the Sox don't make the playoffs, I'll still sleep well knowing that they weren't the victims of the greatest collapse in the history of sports.
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Old 09-20-2005, 12:39 PM   #244
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Quote:
Originally posted by randhail
Right. Because of the the trouble the Sox have had with the bullpen, Hansen's performance means nothing? Even if the Sox don't make the playoffs, I'll still sleep well knowing that they weren't the victims of the greatest collapse in the history of sports.
Don't cheat yourself.

If the Red Sox does not make the playoffs, you will be pretty mad.
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Old 09-20-2005, 02:20 PM   #245
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Funny how you reappear all of the sudden but go away when the Yankees suck...
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Old 09-20-2005, 02:27 PM   #246
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Originally posted by phanan
Funny how you reappear all of the sudden but go away when the Yankees suck...
That's cause many younger Yankee fans "appeared" in 1996. In their fan lives, the Yanks have never missed the playoffs.

What the Yanks need is a period like the 80's and early 90's again. Purge their fanbase of the many fairweathers.

The Sox need it to. Since last year I've met many Sox fans who don't know who Jim Rice or Dwight Evans were.
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Old 09-20-2005, 04:56 PM   #247
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Nobody played right field in Fenway better than Evans.
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Old 09-20-2005, 05:14 PM   #248
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I don't know why all the sox fans think that last year was the biggest collapse. there have been bigger ones, like the Phils in the 60's, the Blue Jays in 87, & this year it will be the white sox blowing a 15 game lead.
last year was just a fluke, won't happen again till the year 2090
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Old 09-20-2005, 07:34 PM   #249
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I don't know why all the sox fans think that last year was the biggest collapse.
Denial ain't just a river in Egypt.

It was the first time a team up 3-0, didn't advance. It was a history making comeback/choke.
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Old 09-20-2005, 08:01 PM   #250
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Maybe Ortiz will win the AL East by himself.

Counting last nite, I just watched him hit home runs in his last 3 at bats.
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Old 09-20-2005, 08:10 PM   #251
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Quote:
Originally posted by Imarocker
I don't know why all the sox fans think that last year was the biggest collapse. there have been bigger ones, like the Phils in the 60's, the Blue Jays in 87, & this year it will be the white sox blowing a 15 game lead.
last year was just a fluke, won't happen again till the year 2090
Do not want to admit it...but do not forget the 1969 Cubs (Cubs fans haven't forgotten).
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Old 09-21-2005, 12:02 AM   #252
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I have to say if Ortiz keeps this up and the Sox win the AL East, he may yet win the MVP, even if he is a DH. No DH has ever put numbers up like this...
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Old 09-21-2005, 12:48 AM   #253
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Quote:
Originally posted by Imarocker
I don't know why all the sox fans think that last year was the biggest collapse. there have been bigger ones, like the Phils in the 60's, the Blue Jays in 87, & this year it will be the white sox blowing a 15 game lead.
last year was just a fluke, won't happen again till the year 2090
Well, the Chicago White Sox haven't lost the pennant yet.

Here are my back-of-the-envelope calculations:

Probability of blowing a 6-game lead in 12 games ('64 Phillies): .7%

Probability of blowing a 14-game lead in 73 games ('78 Red Sox): 1%

Probability of blowing a 12-game lead in 45 games ('95 Angels): .6%

Probability of losing 4 games in a row ('04 Yankees): 6.25%

All these probabilities are calculated assuming that each game is 50-50.

From a purely probabilistic standpoint, winning 4 games in a row is clearly much more likely than any of these epic pennant collapses.

But out of 239 times a team has gone down 3-0 (in MLB, NBA, and NHL playoffs), only 3 times has the team come back to win -- that's 1.3% of the time. At 6.25%, you'd expect this to happen 15 times. Sigma (the standard deviation) for the number of events in 239 tries is 3.7, so the actual result is more than 3 sigmas away. So it's happened much less often than expected.

Meanwhile, epic pennant collapses have happened about as often as expected during the 100-year history of baseball.

The obvious explanation is that there are huge psychological barriers that come into play when trying to overcome a 3-0 deficit in the playoffs. You might say that is stupid, and that teams that go down 3-0 should sack it up and start playing. And you'd probably be right.

Naturally, none of this diminished my joy when the Red Sox won.

Oh, by way of explanation: I'm a mathematician. If you're in college or have access to community college/online courses, and you're in any way serious about sports, social science or politics, I strongly encourage you to take a basic course in statistics when you get the chance. It'll really help you understand this world we live in and make you less susceptible to being fooled by people/politicians/talking heads who play fast and loose with numerical figures.
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Old 09-21-2005, 08:24 AM   #254
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Ortiz is the MVP. If they give it to A Fraud it will be like dimpled and hanging chads all over again. He will be the MVP just like Bush is the President and not Gore.
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Old 09-21-2005, 09:59 AM   #255
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well we certainly did enough statistical analysis between pujols and jones... so why not do it with a-rod and pappi. first thing to throw out is the "he's carrying his team" factor... both players are surrounded by all-star caliber hitters. so let's not even discuss that.

alex rodriguez...
150games, 563 at bats, 113 runs, 180 hits, 26 doubles, 1 triple, 45 homeruns, 120 RBIs, 15 stolen bases, .320 batting average, .419 on base percentage, .609 slugging percentage

with runners in scoring position...
.291 average, 9 homers, 72 RBIs

with runners in scoring position, 2 outs...
.291 average, 5 homers, 32 RBIs

"close and late"
.296 average, 4 homers, 12 RBIs

in september...
.321 average, 5 homers, 15 RBIs

bonus
--a-rod is a leading candidate for the AL gold glove at third base

negative
--has purple lips


david ortiz...
148 games, 559 at bats, 114 runs, 169 hits, 38 doubles, 1 triple, 46 homeruns, 140 RBIs, 1 stolen base, .302 batting average, .397 on base percentage, .621 slugging percentage

runners in scoring position
.345 average, 7 homers, 85 RBIs

runners in scoring position, 2 outs
.370 average, 5 homers, 33 RBIs

"close and late"
.331 average, 10 homers, 31 RBIs

september
.358 average, 10 homers, 22 RBIs

bonus
--uncanny ability to get the big hit in the big game

negative
--is a DH

so there ya go... stat wise, advantage ortiz. if ortiz played the field, he would be the clear choice for MVP. but many voters will hold the fact that he's a DH over him... so frankly, i give him only a slight edge over a-rod if the MVP voting ended today.

if the yankees overtake the red sox and win the AL east, a-rod will win the MVP by a very small margin. if red sox wins the division, ortiz will win by a comfortable margin.


and in an unrelated stat... i was absolutely shocked to see that david ortiz, who hangs right over the plate and is putting up beastly numbers, has been hit by a pitch exactly one damn time all season. fancy shmansy a-rod, on the other hand, with his open stance, very much not hanging over the plate, has been hit by a pitch 15 times.
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