MLB 2014-15: It's Time for the HOT STOVE

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Career WAR By Eligible Position Players Not In Cooperstown:

(#=Overall Rank)

Barry Bonds (LF) - 162.4 (#2)
Jeff Bagwell (1B) - 79.6 (#37)
Bill Dahlen (SS) - 75.2 (#46)
Lou Whitaker (2B) - 74.9 (#49)
Larry Walker (LF) - 72.6 (#56)
Rafael Palmeiro (1B) - 71.6 (#59)
Bobby Grich (2B) - 70.9 (#61)
Alan Trammell (SS) - 70.4 (#62T)
Tim Raines (LF) - 69.1 (#71)
Edgar Martinez (DH) - 68.3 (#75T)
Kenny Lofton (CF) - 68.2 (#77T)
Graig Nettles (3B) - 68.0 (#79)
Dwight Evans (RF) - 66.9 (#84)
Buddy Bell (3B) - 66.1 (#89T)
Willie Randolph (2B) - 65.5 (#91)
Reggie Smith (OF) - 64.5 (#93)

Not Yet On Ballot:

Alex Rodriguez (SS) - 116.0 (#12)
Albert Pujols (1B) - 97.0 (#21)
Chipper Jones (3B) - 85.0 (#31)
Ken Griffey Jr. (CF) - 83.6 (#34)
Adrian Beltre (3B) - 77.8 (#42)
Jim Thome (1B) - 72.9 (#53)
Derek Jeter (SS) - 71.8 (#58)
Scott Rolen (3B) - 70.0 (#67)
Manny Ramirez (OF) - 69.2 (#70)
Ivan Rodriguez (C) - 68.4 (#74)

Carlos Beltran (CF) - 67.5 (#81T)


Ineligible For Cooperstown:

Pete Rose (OF) - 79.1 (#39)



BOLD = PED User



I guess you can say Bagwell is the best everyday player not in the Hall of Fame (although I'd say Piazza has a better case for being Top 5 ever at his position). Dahlen missed induction by two votes the last time he was on a VC ballot (he'll surely make an appearance again on next year's). His case is about as slam-dunk as it gets...a proven power hitting shortstop and one of the ten most valuable defensive players in history.

Whitaker, Walker, Grich and Trammell are all cases for stat-geeks so they'll be hard to convince other former players/executives on. Martinez is the first one on the list whose case depends more on how you view a DH than needing to delve deeper into the math as he has a great stat line.
 
Career WAR By Eligible Pitchers Not In Cooperstown:

(# = Overall Rank)

Roger Clemens - 139.4 (#3)
Mike Mussina - 82.7 (#24)
Curt Schilling - 80.7 (#26)
Jim McCormick - 75.5 (#27)
Kevin Brown - 68.5 (#31)
Rick Reuschel - 68.2 (#35)
Luis Tiant - 66.1 (#40)
Tommy John - 62.3 (#48)
Bobby Matthews - 62.2 (#49)

Not Yet On Ballot:

Roy Halladay - 65.6 (#41)


BOLD = PED User

For what it's worth, #30 (Don Sutton) to # 60 (Tony Mullane) all nabbed between 60.0 and 69.9 WAR. Obviously, one has to take a closer look at a lot of pitcher's career peaks to determine whether or not they reached a great career total by merely being very good. Sandy Koufax had one of the most dominant peaks of any pitcher in history, for example, but his brief time at the top and early retirement net him a total of 53.2 WAR, even though practically everybody would rank him among the Top 20 Pitchers of all time.

Mussina and Schilling are clearly in rarified company and absolutely deserving. Nobody else here warrants a real case (Halladay will deserve induction given his peak when he's eligible though). McCormick is borderline but played in the 19th Century when pitchers threw an ungodly amount of innings and thus were worth more to their teams. He wasn't that much better than "very good" throughout his career.
 
Sutton was more of a career compiler whereas Mussina had an actual peak. Moose pitched in the craziest offensive environment in history and that obscures his totals.

WAR for Pitchers

1992 AL 8.2 (2nd)
1994 AL 5.4 (4th)
1995 AL 6.1 (3rd)
1997 AL 5.5 (8th)
1998 AL 5.0 (7th)
1999 AL 4.4 (8th)
2000 AL 5.6 (3rd)
2001 AL 7.1 (1st)
2003 AL 6.6 (5th)
2006 AL 5.0 (5th)
2008 AL 5.2 (7th)

Career 82.7 (24th)
 
If you look at advanced metrics, Schilling, Mussina and Walker are all obviously worth inductees. Kent somewhat, McGriff not so much.

Schiling actually has the best strikeout to walk ratio since 1900. If that's not a Hall of Famer, I don't know what it is.

Mike Mussina is 24th in career WAR among Pitchers (Schilling is 26th). Every person ahead of him that didn't take steroids is a Hall of Famer (in other words, Clemens is the only non Cooperstown member ahead of him in career value). Also, you don't have to be the best pitcher of your Era, but clearly one of the best. Mussina was in fact that when you look beyond the most basic (and flawed) of metrics.

Mussina and Schilling both amassed more career value than Tom Glavine (28th) and John Smoltz (39th).

Larry Walker is 86th among batters in Career WAR. That's in spite of his career not having been super long due to being very injury prone (and yes, that's with park adjustments - he's was great even without Coors Field).

McGriff is only 260th...the only deserving Hall of Famers in that range are catchers and shortstops with great career peaks, not first basemen. Most of the Hall of Famers in that range are among the biggest mistakes of all inductees.

Jeff Kent is 228th but played at Second Base...very borderline.

Nomar had one of the best shortstop peaks in baseball history and overall has a Top 20 case in terms of shortstops, but there's definitely not enough meat there overall to warrant induction, obviously.





Comparisons By Average JAWS Score For Position:

* JAWS is a combination of career value and 7 year peak value.

Mike Piazza - 51.2 (5th, Average C inductee is 43.1 - 13 HOFers at position)

Jeff Bagwell - 63.9 (6th, Average 1B inductee is 54.2 - 19 HOFers at position)
Fred McGriff - 44.1 (28th, Average 1B inductee is 54.2 - 19 HOFers at position)

Jeff Kent - 45.4 (19th, Average 2B inductee is 57.0 - 19 HOFers at position)

Alan Trammell - 57.5 (11th, Average SS inductee is 54.7 - 21 HOFers at position)
Nomar Garciaparra - 43.6 (24th, Average SS inductee is 54.7 - 21 HOFers at position)

Edgar Martinez - 56.0 (11th, Average 3B inductee is 55.0 - 13 HOFers at position) *Played primarily as a DH

Tim Raines - 55.6 (8th, Average LF inductee is 53.3 - 19 HOFers at position)

Larry Walker - 58.6 (10th, Average RF inductee is 58.1 - 24 HOFers at position)

Curt Schilling - 64.5 (27th, Average SP inductee is 61.8 - 59 HOFers at position)
Mike Mussina - 63.8 (28th, Average SP inductee is 61.8 - 59 HOFers at position)

Lee Smith - 25.4 (15th, Average RP inductee is 34.4 - 5 HOFers at position)



Clearly Worthy: Piazza, Bagwell, Trammell, Martinez, Raines, Walker, Schilling, Mussina

If we're picking sides, and you want Mussina and will give me either Glavine or Smoltz, I'll shake your hand, pat you on the back, and laugh my ass off.

As for Jeff Kent... his greatest seasons were when he was hitting behind the best hitter in the history of the game. His stats were inflated because of this. He's terribly overrated.
 
It's funny because I saw multiple sabermetric minded writers specifically say they'd be taking Mussina over Glavine or Smoltz. The numbers don't lie upon closer inspection. Park factors, league competition and the team that played behind them can make a big difference when it comes to the traditional counting numbers.

And yes, Don Sutton had no real great career peak. He hung around forever at a very good clip.

Dude who pitches 10 years at an insane level (one of the best pitchers in the game) can net 60 WAR at 6 per season. Dude who plays for 20 can also get to 60 WAR by simply averaging 3 a season which would make him a good starter, if not even a very good one most of the time.

As far as position players are concerned though, if you didn't take steroids and are in the Top 100 in overall value, you should be in there. A lot of these guys may have played in pitcher's parks, low offensive environments, had great defense that wasn't noticed back in the day, etc. Not to mention how positions like 3B are clearly under-represented (took an eternity for Santo, the most deserving odd-man out, to finally get in).
 
Steroid Users And Therefore Have No Chance:

Clemens, Bonds, Sheffield, McGwire, Sosa

.

It won't shock me if Clemens and Bonds eventually get in.
Some voters will eventually give in to the "they were hall of famers before they juiced" argument, others will start to realize that there clearly are other steroid users in the hall even if they were never caught (Griffey's first ballot induction will wake some up to this) and switch their votes.
 
It's funny because I saw multiple sabermetric minded writers specifically say they'd be taking Mussina over Glavine or Smoltz. The numbers don't lie upon closer inspection. Park factors, league competition and the team that played behind them can make a big difference when it comes to the traditional counting numbers.

:up::up:

Your last few posts make a really good argument for Mussina. I always thought he was missing the "aura" of some of his peers, and it turns out still is hurting him as far as the HOF voting.
 
Moose had the misfortune of not being on Yankees teams that won the WS. They signed him after the 2000 season, so he missed their run from 96 to 2000. They lose in 2001 and 2003. He retires in 2008 with 20 wins. They win the WS in 2009. His best chances were probably 2001, 2003 and 2004 (Damn you, Boston. :wink:)
 
MLB Network mentioned that Randy Savage was inducted into the WWE HOF. Before Macho Man became a wrestler, baseball was his sport. Randy Poffo was an outfielder in the Minors for mostly the St. Louis Cardinals. A shoulder injury ended his baseball career.
 
We need to trade Jordan Zimmermann for a young shortstop to replace an increasingly overpriced Ian Desmond. We dumped Cabrera and traded Clippard for 2B help so that's some minor cap help.

I wonder what happens to Tanner Roark now? Either way, an overabundance of talent in the rotation is a good problem to have.
 
So there's no way the Nats have the cap space to keep that rotation, yah?
I know it's splitting hairs, but MLB isn't a salary cap sport. The luxury tax threshold is massive, like $180 million or so, and unless Scherzer is getting $40 million a year, I don't think the Nats are going to hit it with him.

Technically, Washington has no limit on what they can spend. They just have a limit on what they're willing to spend. Which is the case for every team.
 
Also, Hamels is the same age as Scherzer and has 4 years and $90 million left on his deal, so "league sources" saying the Phillies are being unreasonable in their demands can kiss my ass.
 
I know it's splitting hairs, but MLB isn't a salary cap sport. The luxury tax threshold is massive, like $180 million or so, and unless Scherzer is getting $40 million a year, I don't think the Nats are going to hit it with him.

Technically, Washington has no limit on what they can spend. They just have a limit on what they're willing to spend. Which is the case for every team.

You're right, I started thinking about that later, and realized my comment was made in error. They certainly are going to be throwing down a lot of cash to keep the rotation, at any rate.
 
They're in the enviable position of having talent people want, so if they really need to shed salary it won't be difficult to do so while getting a solid return.
 
Also, Hamels is the same age as Scherzer and has 4 years and $90 million left on his deal, so "league sources" saying the Phillies are being unreasonable in their demands can kiss my ass.

Nobody had to give up 4 top prospects for Scherzer...Phillies are being unreasonable, thats why Hamels remains a Phillie. When RAJ gets realistic with his demands someone will trade for Hamels.
 
Nobody had to give up 4 top prospects for Scherzer...Phillies are being unreasonable, thats why Hamels remains a Phillie. When RAJ gets realistic with his demands someone will trade for Hamels.
Hamels remains a Phillie because teams are too gunshy to give up prospects in 2015. They've become overvalued now that free agency has dried up due to teams consistently locking up their homegrown talent. The Phillies cannot afford to give up Hamels until teams give up three top prospects. Otherwise, it's more worthwhile to keep him.
 
7 years for a 30 year old pitcher... when will teams learn?

Why not just keep Zimmerman? I mean if they're keeping the staff in tact as is, fine... They overspent to go for it. I can respect that. But if they're giving him that deal only to turn around and trade off one of their other guys? I just don't get it.
 
Based on what I'm hearing from fans, "sources" and the like, it seems as if there's a good chance that Zimmermann doesn't want to be here. The working theory is that Rizzo already offered him a deal and Zimmermann turned him down so he could hit the open market.

I'm not sure there is a way we could win out of all this, so we paid big money for a stud instead of dealing with a possible distraction down the line. That's what I think. Again, all I have to base this on is "reports" and "sources" from late last season talking about Zimmermann wanting to see what he's worth elsewhere.
 
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7 years is too long, but that's a pro-active GM in Washington. Can I say that spending $200 million on a pitcher is shrewd? :hmm:

Who knows what would have happened with Zimmermann, Fister is a free agent after the 2015 season, and Strasburg up after 2016.
 
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