dsmith2904
ONE love, blood, life
AP Writers Predict Grammy Winners
By NEKESA MUMBI MOODY and DAVID BAUDER, AP Music Writers
Oh Grammy voters, why do you bewitch us so? Last year, we just knew you were above doling out sentimental Grammys to so-so projects. But then you gave a boatload of Grammys to Ray Charles' posthumous "Genius Loves Company."
So it's tough to know which Grammy voters will hold sway this year — the ones who will talk your ears off about the Arcade Fire, or the ones who don't know the difference between Paul Wall and Pink Floyd's "The Wall."
But it's our job to guess, so here goes...
Record of the Year nominees: "We Belong Together," Mariah Carey; "Feel Good Inc.," Gorillaz featuring De La Soul; "Boulevard of Broken Dreams," Green Day; "Hollaback Girl," Gwen Stefani; "Gold Digger," Kanye West.
MOODY: You would think Ms. Mariah would have a lock on this — she had the most popular song and the best-selling album of the year, capping her amazing comeback. And Grammy voters love comebacks. But I think voters will be divided between Carey's beautiful torch song and West's catchy "Gold Digger," leaving the door open for an upset. That won't be accomplished by Stefani — how can you give an award to a song that's basically nonsensical rhymes strung together (though catchy). No, it will be between the Gorillaz and Green Day, and Green Day's poignant "Boulevard" will take it.
BAUDER: Gorillaz is the only interloper here — it's a cartoon song by a cartoon band. And what's the matter with nonsensical rhymes stuck together? Doesn't that define half of popular music? Don't overthink this one, Nekesa. My bet is that Mariah will pull through.
Album of the Year: "The Emancipation of Mimi," Mariah Carey; "Chaos and Creation in the Backyard," Paul McCartney; "Love. Angel. Music. Baby.," Gwen Stefani; "How to Dismantle an Atomic Bomb," U2; "Late Registration," Kanye West.
BAUDER: I can think of a lot of reasons why many of these nominees WON'T win. Grammy voters may like a Carey or Stefani song or two, but think they're too slight as artists for an award like this. Kanye? That crown of thorns magazine cover wasn't a good career move. McCartney will certainly be a sentimental choice but, frankly, the album was overrated and had little impact in the market. That leaves your winner, U2.
MOODY: A slight artist? Mariah has a multi-octave voice, buddy! Still, that won't help Mimi here. Yes McCartney's album was overrated, and yes, Kanye is the hot wunderkind of them all. But this is probably the 63-year-old McCartney's last shot at a best album trophy, and with everything he's accomplished, he's never won this one. So I say Grammy voters get all reverential and give it to Sir Paul just for old times sake — though Mimi, you know this should have been yours.
Song of the Year: "Bless the Broken Road," Bobby Boyd, Jeff Hanna & Marcus Hummon, (Rascal Flatts); "Devils & Dust," Bruce Springsteen, (Bruce Springsteen); "Ordinary People," W. Adams & J. Stephens, (John Legend); "Sometimes You Can't Make It on Your Own," U2; "We Belong Together," J. Austin, M. Carey, J. Dupri & M. Seal, (D. Bristol, K. Edmonds, S. Johnson, P. Moten, S. Sully & B. Womack) (Mariah Carey).
MOODY: When it takes the equivalent of a basketball starting lineup to write one song, the chances of said tune winning a song-of-the-year Grammy diminishes greatly — so that scratches off Mariah once again. Rascal Flatt's "Bless the Broken Road" may be great, but outside of country audiences, where did it resonate? The same can be said for John Legend's "Ordinary People," a great song that most people are unaware of. Actually, that can also be said for Springsteen's "Devils & Dust," but we're talking Bruce here! And that's why he'll win, even over Grammy faves U2.
BAUDER: Let's take this slow-ow-ow-ow, Nekesa. When you think of Bruce Springsteen, "Devils & Dust" is hardly a song that comes to mind. "Ordinary People" is the kind of lush, romantic ballad that people will remember years from now. U2's beauty is its only real competition here, but it may suffer among voters for having been out too long. Legend wins.
New Artist: Ciara, Fall Out Boy, Keane, John Legend, SugarLand.
BAUDER: This is hardly an accurate Grammy predictor, but I'm going with the artist most likely to be around in another decade. And that's John Legend.
MOODY: This one is so easy and obvious — John Legend, John Legend, John Legend (of course, I thought it was obvious Kanye should win last year. And 50 Cent before that. So maybe I should pick SugarLand?)
Female Pop Vocal Performance: "It's Like That," Mariah Carey; "Since U Been Gone," Kelly Clarkson; "Good Is Good," Sheryl Crow; "I Will Not Be Broken," Bonnie Raitt; "Hollaback Girl," Gwen Stefani.
MOODY: With the amazing performance Carey had with "We Belong Together," it's perplexing that the song is not nominated here; "It's Like That" was a strong, but not stellar performance, which is why she won't win. Clarkson, on the other hand, had the year's greatest groove and put the song over the top with her tour-de-force performance — and she should have been up for record of the year for it. A win here would be a deserved consolation prize.
BAUDER: Hey, we agree! Clarkson got dissed this year; she deserved a nomination in one of the bigger categories for "Since U Been Gone."
Male Pop Vocal Performance: "Sitting, Waiting, Wishing," Jack Johnson; "Fine Line," Paul McCartney; "Walk on By," Seal; "Lonely No More," Rob Thomas; "From the Bottom of My Heart," Stevie Wonder.
BAUDER: This is a tough one. Johnson would be the hip choice, and it's a fine performance. Thomas is a Grammy favorite. My guess is the two old guys duke it out, with McCartney winning because "Fine Line" is a better song than "From the Bottom of My Heart."
MOODY: Again, sentimentality will rule with McCartney winning, though Johnson's idyllic "Sitting, Waiting, Wishing" is more worthy by far.
Pop Vocal Album: "Extraordinary Machine," Fiona Apple; "Breakaway," Kelly Clarkson; "Wildflower," Sheryl Crow; "Chaos and Creation in the Backyard," Paul McCartney; "Love. Angel. Music. Baby.," Gwen Stefani.
MOODY: As the only man in this category, Sir Paul may be in the minority, but as the only Sir Paul in this category, his legend towers over his female counterparts. Apple's album is probably his only strong competition, but it won't be enough to squash this former Beatle.
BAUDER: Your logic is certainly sound, Nekesa, and it's heartening to see McCartney make an artistic comeback. But "Extraordinary Machine" is the better album, and my guess is voters will recognize that. Can we agree on one thing, though? How in the world did the crushingly dull "Wildflower" secure a nomination?
Rock Album: "X&Y," Coldplay; "In Your Honor," Foo Fighters; "A Bigger Bang," The Rolling Stones; "How to Dismantle an Atomic Bomb," U2; "Prairie Wind," Neil Young.
BAUDER: Not a dog in this bunch, frankly. But it would be silly of me to say U2 is going to win album of the year and then not win here. This is probably the wrong category for Young, who stared mortality in the eye and produced a wondrous work.
MOODY: Coldplay may be the U2 in waiting, but since U2 isn't going anywhere anytime soon, Coldplay loses to the gods of rock in this category.
R&B Album: "Illumination," Earth, Wind and Fire; "Free Yourself," Fantasia; "Unplugged," Alicia Keys; "Get Lifted," John Legend; "A Time to Love," Stevie Wonder.
MOODY: Isn't there some mandatory rule that Stevie Wonder must win any Grammy he's nominated for (except when it's against Sir Paul)? Expect the legend to add to his mountain of Grammys with a win.
BAUDER: Yeah, it's a name that's too easy for voters to write in.
Rap Album: "Be," Common; "The Cookbook," Missy Elliott; "Encore," Eminem; "The Massacre," 50 Cent; "Late Registration," Kanye West.
BAUDER: Isn't Eminem retired yet? Kanye's prominent role in the industry deserves notice, and here's where he will get it.
MOODY: Like last year, when Kanye won his trophies in the rap and R&B categories instead of the more mainstream categories, history will repeat itself with him winning here again.
Country Album: "Fireflies," Faith Hill; "Lonely Runs Both Ways," Alison Krauss and Union Station; "Time Well Wasted," Brad Paisley; "All Jacked Up," Gretchen Wilson; "Jasper County," Trisha Yearwood.
MOODY: Though "All Jacked Up" didn't have nearly the impact of Wilson's debut "Here for the Party," it's still just as potent. While Paisley will be a close second, he will still be second to Wilson.
BAUDER: The others are all polite, nice albums. But Gretchen Wilson really has it in gear, a formidable artist with a clear sense of who she is — and the heck with anyone else. Score another for the former bartender.
Alternative Music Album: "Funeral," The Arcade Fire; "Guero," Beck; "Plans," Death Cab for Cutie; "You Could Have It So Much Better," Franz Ferdinand; "Get Behind Me Satan," The White Stripes.
BAUDER: Simply because none of the other albums has a song as scintillating as "My Doorbell," I'm going with The White Stripes.
MOODY: Though Arcade Fire has more momentum going into the Grammys, I don't think Grammys will easily forget the sparkling work from the White Stripes. We haven't.
By NEKESA MUMBI MOODY and DAVID BAUDER, AP Music Writers
Oh Grammy voters, why do you bewitch us so? Last year, we just knew you were above doling out sentimental Grammys to so-so projects. But then you gave a boatload of Grammys to Ray Charles' posthumous "Genius Loves Company."
So it's tough to know which Grammy voters will hold sway this year — the ones who will talk your ears off about the Arcade Fire, or the ones who don't know the difference between Paul Wall and Pink Floyd's "The Wall."
But it's our job to guess, so here goes...
Record of the Year nominees: "We Belong Together," Mariah Carey; "Feel Good Inc.," Gorillaz featuring De La Soul; "Boulevard of Broken Dreams," Green Day; "Hollaback Girl," Gwen Stefani; "Gold Digger," Kanye West.
MOODY: You would think Ms. Mariah would have a lock on this — she had the most popular song and the best-selling album of the year, capping her amazing comeback. And Grammy voters love comebacks. But I think voters will be divided between Carey's beautiful torch song and West's catchy "Gold Digger," leaving the door open for an upset. That won't be accomplished by Stefani — how can you give an award to a song that's basically nonsensical rhymes strung together (though catchy). No, it will be between the Gorillaz and Green Day, and Green Day's poignant "Boulevard" will take it.
BAUDER: Gorillaz is the only interloper here — it's a cartoon song by a cartoon band. And what's the matter with nonsensical rhymes stuck together? Doesn't that define half of popular music? Don't overthink this one, Nekesa. My bet is that Mariah will pull through.
Album of the Year: "The Emancipation of Mimi," Mariah Carey; "Chaos and Creation in the Backyard," Paul McCartney; "Love. Angel. Music. Baby.," Gwen Stefani; "How to Dismantle an Atomic Bomb," U2; "Late Registration," Kanye West.
BAUDER: I can think of a lot of reasons why many of these nominees WON'T win. Grammy voters may like a Carey or Stefani song or two, but think they're too slight as artists for an award like this. Kanye? That crown of thorns magazine cover wasn't a good career move. McCartney will certainly be a sentimental choice but, frankly, the album was overrated and had little impact in the market. That leaves your winner, U2.
MOODY: A slight artist? Mariah has a multi-octave voice, buddy! Still, that won't help Mimi here. Yes McCartney's album was overrated, and yes, Kanye is the hot wunderkind of them all. But this is probably the 63-year-old McCartney's last shot at a best album trophy, and with everything he's accomplished, he's never won this one. So I say Grammy voters get all reverential and give it to Sir Paul just for old times sake — though Mimi, you know this should have been yours.
Song of the Year: "Bless the Broken Road," Bobby Boyd, Jeff Hanna & Marcus Hummon, (Rascal Flatts); "Devils & Dust," Bruce Springsteen, (Bruce Springsteen); "Ordinary People," W. Adams & J. Stephens, (John Legend); "Sometimes You Can't Make It on Your Own," U2; "We Belong Together," J. Austin, M. Carey, J. Dupri & M. Seal, (D. Bristol, K. Edmonds, S. Johnson, P. Moten, S. Sully & B. Womack) (Mariah Carey).
MOODY: When it takes the equivalent of a basketball starting lineup to write one song, the chances of said tune winning a song-of-the-year Grammy diminishes greatly — so that scratches off Mariah once again. Rascal Flatt's "Bless the Broken Road" may be great, but outside of country audiences, where did it resonate? The same can be said for John Legend's "Ordinary People," a great song that most people are unaware of. Actually, that can also be said for Springsteen's "Devils & Dust," but we're talking Bruce here! And that's why he'll win, even over Grammy faves U2.
BAUDER: Let's take this slow-ow-ow-ow, Nekesa. When you think of Bruce Springsteen, "Devils & Dust" is hardly a song that comes to mind. "Ordinary People" is the kind of lush, romantic ballad that people will remember years from now. U2's beauty is its only real competition here, but it may suffer among voters for having been out too long. Legend wins.
New Artist: Ciara, Fall Out Boy, Keane, John Legend, SugarLand.
BAUDER: This is hardly an accurate Grammy predictor, but I'm going with the artist most likely to be around in another decade. And that's John Legend.
MOODY: This one is so easy and obvious — John Legend, John Legend, John Legend (of course, I thought it was obvious Kanye should win last year. And 50 Cent before that. So maybe I should pick SugarLand?)
Female Pop Vocal Performance: "It's Like That," Mariah Carey; "Since U Been Gone," Kelly Clarkson; "Good Is Good," Sheryl Crow; "I Will Not Be Broken," Bonnie Raitt; "Hollaback Girl," Gwen Stefani.
MOODY: With the amazing performance Carey had with "We Belong Together," it's perplexing that the song is not nominated here; "It's Like That" was a strong, but not stellar performance, which is why she won't win. Clarkson, on the other hand, had the year's greatest groove and put the song over the top with her tour-de-force performance — and she should have been up for record of the year for it. A win here would be a deserved consolation prize.
BAUDER: Hey, we agree! Clarkson got dissed this year; she deserved a nomination in one of the bigger categories for "Since U Been Gone."
Male Pop Vocal Performance: "Sitting, Waiting, Wishing," Jack Johnson; "Fine Line," Paul McCartney; "Walk on By," Seal; "Lonely No More," Rob Thomas; "From the Bottom of My Heart," Stevie Wonder.
BAUDER: This is a tough one. Johnson would be the hip choice, and it's a fine performance. Thomas is a Grammy favorite. My guess is the two old guys duke it out, with McCartney winning because "Fine Line" is a better song than "From the Bottom of My Heart."
MOODY: Again, sentimentality will rule with McCartney winning, though Johnson's idyllic "Sitting, Waiting, Wishing" is more worthy by far.
Pop Vocal Album: "Extraordinary Machine," Fiona Apple; "Breakaway," Kelly Clarkson; "Wildflower," Sheryl Crow; "Chaos and Creation in the Backyard," Paul McCartney; "Love. Angel. Music. Baby.," Gwen Stefani.
MOODY: As the only man in this category, Sir Paul may be in the minority, but as the only Sir Paul in this category, his legend towers over his female counterparts. Apple's album is probably his only strong competition, but it won't be enough to squash this former Beatle.
BAUDER: Your logic is certainly sound, Nekesa, and it's heartening to see McCartney make an artistic comeback. But "Extraordinary Machine" is the better album, and my guess is voters will recognize that. Can we agree on one thing, though? How in the world did the crushingly dull "Wildflower" secure a nomination?
Rock Album: "X&Y," Coldplay; "In Your Honor," Foo Fighters; "A Bigger Bang," The Rolling Stones; "How to Dismantle an Atomic Bomb," U2; "Prairie Wind," Neil Young.
BAUDER: Not a dog in this bunch, frankly. But it would be silly of me to say U2 is going to win album of the year and then not win here. This is probably the wrong category for Young, who stared mortality in the eye and produced a wondrous work.
MOODY: Coldplay may be the U2 in waiting, but since U2 isn't going anywhere anytime soon, Coldplay loses to the gods of rock in this category.
R&B Album: "Illumination," Earth, Wind and Fire; "Free Yourself," Fantasia; "Unplugged," Alicia Keys; "Get Lifted," John Legend; "A Time to Love," Stevie Wonder.
MOODY: Isn't there some mandatory rule that Stevie Wonder must win any Grammy he's nominated for (except when it's against Sir Paul)? Expect the legend to add to his mountain of Grammys with a win.
BAUDER: Yeah, it's a name that's too easy for voters to write in.
Rap Album: "Be," Common; "The Cookbook," Missy Elliott; "Encore," Eminem; "The Massacre," 50 Cent; "Late Registration," Kanye West.
BAUDER: Isn't Eminem retired yet? Kanye's prominent role in the industry deserves notice, and here's where he will get it.
MOODY: Like last year, when Kanye won his trophies in the rap and R&B categories instead of the more mainstream categories, history will repeat itself with him winning here again.
Country Album: "Fireflies," Faith Hill; "Lonely Runs Both Ways," Alison Krauss and Union Station; "Time Well Wasted," Brad Paisley; "All Jacked Up," Gretchen Wilson; "Jasper County," Trisha Yearwood.
MOODY: Though "All Jacked Up" didn't have nearly the impact of Wilson's debut "Here for the Party," it's still just as potent. While Paisley will be a close second, he will still be second to Wilson.
BAUDER: The others are all polite, nice albums. But Gretchen Wilson really has it in gear, a formidable artist with a clear sense of who she is — and the heck with anyone else. Score another for the former bartender.
Alternative Music Album: "Funeral," The Arcade Fire; "Guero," Beck; "Plans," Death Cab for Cutie; "You Could Have It So Much Better," Franz Ferdinand; "Get Behind Me Satan," The White Stripes.
BAUDER: Simply because none of the other albums has a song as scintillating as "My Doorbell," I'm going with The White Stripes.
MOODY: Though Arcade Fire has more momentum going into the Grammys, I don't think Grammys will easily forget the sparkling work from the White Stripes. We haven't.
